Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED FORECASTS TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. DIDN`T INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. WILL STILL SEE A FEW TSRA COS/PUB...THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS BETTER FARTHER EAST WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING 2000-3000
J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS HAS PUSHED WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST CO WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AND AM WATCHING PORTIONS OF
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE LATEST FOG PRODUCT
INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WHERE SE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE.  KLIC HAS SEEN LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING UNDER
THIS SAME AREA OF STRATUS...BUT THERE IS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE MTS...SO IF STRATUS
DOES MAKE A PUSH WESTWARD INTO KCOS...DON`T THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OR LAST VERY LONG.

FOR TODAY...UPPER TROF ACROSS ID/NRN UT WILL MOVE INTO NW CO BY 00Z
FRI WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ACROSS WRN CO EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
DURING THE EARLY AFTN AHEAD OF THE TROF.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS WRN CO OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BRING AN EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL HELP MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A DRY LINE TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  IF DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE 50S
AS 00Z NAM SUGGESTED...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CAPE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH VALUES OF 2000+J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN.
CONCEPTUALLY IF SFC WINDS CAN STAY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE...THEN DEEP LAYER SHEARS COULD BE RUNNING AROUND 30-40
KTS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS THE
DRIEST MODEL PUSHING 40 DEW POINTS INTO WRN KS BY 00Z FRI.  VARIOUS
HIGH RES MODELS RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN THE MOISTER NAM12 AND THE
DRIER GFS RUN...AND 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE DRIER
GFS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY 21Z. HUNCH IS WITH
LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THAT SFC
WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
KEEP DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER WITH INITIAL
DEW POINTS RUNNING SO HIGH...STILL THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF
KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND BENT COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN
INITIATE EARLY ENOUGH. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THREAT
AREA TO SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT...STILL THINK THAT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE KS BORDER.  IF SFC WINDS CAN STAY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT PARAMETERS FOR
THIS APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S...WITH EVEN A FEW 20 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS BY AFTN.  THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT AVAILABLE CAPE AND
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...AND IF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTS BURN SCARS...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY LOW SIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH.

FRONT MAKES A PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO DURING THE EVENING...AND
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOOKS LIKE LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO KS/OK...SO THIS
WILL KEEP FOCUS AREA FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DROP INTO NRN CO. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 12000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS ON PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH IN
TURN HAS A BIG IMPACT ON EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS STILL INDICATES MORE OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY 18Z FRI. THE END RESULT IS THAT THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON
PCPN DEVELOPING UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE DRY AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A BIT MORE WARMING COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...SO LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO MODELS...WITH A LITTLE
HELP FROM HI RES MODELS AS WELL. WENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY AT THE MAX BETWEEN 21Z
AND 06Z. WARMED MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S AND
70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS A CONCERN
DUE TO THE HEAVILY SATURATED GROUND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF SAT MORNING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
MT CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
AFTER A COOLER DAY ON SAT...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY
TUE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO...WITH THE END RESULT BEING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TAP. THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WILL
TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED MT ACTIVITY AT BEST...AND MAX TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS 17-18Z WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 19-20Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
20Z ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

TSRA WILL THEN DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY STRATUS TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER TOWARDS MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING
17Z-18Z FRI...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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