Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cold front has pushed through all of the southeast plains early this
morning with isolated thunderstorms still ongoing along the Raton
Ridge region.  Meanwhile...monsoon moisture and weak disturbances
continue to circulate within the upper ridge axis aloft across most
of southern CO where precipitable waters from the AMSU SSM/I show
values ranging from 100-130% of normal with highest values across
the southern and southeast portions of the area.

For this morning...shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to
decrease this morning across southern portions of the area.
Meanwhile, low clouds and areas of fog will continue to work
westward into the I-25 corridor towards morning. These will slowly
erode and burn off through late morning.  Plains will likely stay
capped today...however surface heating in combination with weak
disturbances rotating northward within the upper ridge across the
mountains will trigger another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains...with the 00z and 06z
model runs favoring the western mountains more so than the eastern
mountains.  Locally heavy rain will be the primary storm threats
given light flow aloft within the upper ridge. Areas with
susceptible soils such as burn scars will be particularly
susceptible to flash flooding.  A few of the stronger storms could
also produce locally gusty winds up to 45 mph and some small hail.
Thunderstorms will diminish during the evening...though a few
showers could linger across the mountains overnight. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Wednesday-Thursday...Fairly active weather pattern continues to be
progged through mid week, especially for areas over and near the
higher terrain, as upper high builds across the region. Monsoonal
moisture within the generally weak west to southwest flow aloft,
remains in place, with minor embedded waves expected to help to
develop afternoon showers and storms across the higher terrain, with
storms spreading east across the adjacent plains through the late
afternoon and evening hours, and continuing out across the far
southeast plains through the late evening and into the overnight
hours. Locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding
remains a concern through the period, with a few strong to severe
storms possible across the far southeast plains, especially on
Thursday, with enough just enough shear to support organized
convection. Temperatures through this period are expected to be at or
slightly cooler than late summer averages.

Friday-Monday...Upper high slowly retrogrades back across the Great
Basin, with flow aloft becoming more northerly into the weekend.
Should see drier slowly moving back into the area with decreasing
coverage and intensity of diurnal convection expected into early
next week. However, there looks to be another cold front sliding
across the eastern plains on Saturday, with upslope flow a return of
low level moisture, owning to an uptick in convection Saturday,
especially across the eastern mountains and plains. Temperatures
generally look to be around seasonal levels into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

MVFR to IFR cigs across the plains will spread westward into the
KCOS and KPUB taf sites early this morning.  Areas of fog will also
be possible, particularly in the Pikes Peak region this morning.
CIGS should break by around 16z for most areas with VFR conditions
expected at all three terminals through the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon and spread
into the valleys and adjacent plains this afternoon and evening.
Given stable conditions across the plains, the chance for -TSRA to
affect KCOS and KPUB looks too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs.
 KALS will see the best chance for VCTS this afternoon as
thunderstorms spread off the mountains into the terminal.  Locally
heavy rain, erratic wind gusts to 40 kts and brief VFR CIGS and VIS
will be the primary concern with thunderstorms through this evening.
This threat should diminish this evening with VFR conditions
expected overnight. -KT




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