Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
828 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 827 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Updated to end the dense fog advisory for portions of the lower
Arkansas River Valley.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Currently...quiet conditions exist across southern Colorado this
morning.  There is some dense freezing fog along the lower Arkansas
River Valley, from Pueblo to Lamar.  By far, the area from Pueblo to
Fowler is seeing the most dense freezing fog, while areas further
east it is much more patchy.  There are also areas of fog over the
San Luis Valley.  Reduced visibilities along with possible slick
roadways are expected this morning where fog exists.

Today and Tonight...a broad upper level low pressure system
stretching from northeastern New Mexico into western Kansas will
slowly lift northeast by this evening, while high pressure over Utah
moves into western Colorado overnight tonight.  Expect fog to
dissipate this morning with generally sunny skies expected across
the region.  Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper
40s for most of the Plains.  Model guidance suggests a few low 50s
may be possible over Pueblo and El Paso Counties this afternoon.

As high pressure begins to build across the region tonight, flow
aloft will transition southwesterly.  This should help keep
temperatures slightly warmer along the eastern lee slopes with 20s
and lower 30s for lows.  Weak westerly low level flow should also
help prevent fog development across the Plains tonight.  There could
be some fog over the San Luis Valley late tonight into Thursday
morning.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Active Weather Returns...

The first in a series of Pacific weather systems will begin to
spread snow into the Continental Divide late Thursday and Thursday
night. This first system will bring some snow to the Continental
Divide, particularly the southwest mountains, especially late
Thursday night and early Friday. Could be advisory level
accumulations on the order 5-10 inches the way it looks right now.
The system will be accompanied by wind, resulting in blowing snow.
Across the lower elevations, some spotty rain or snow showers
possible from this first system along with increased winds and
cooler temperatures on Friday.

The next, more potent system, moves across late Friday night
through Saturday night. This one should bring greater amounts of
snow over a longer duration to the Continental Divide. It will
probably eventually require winter storm warnings for the Divide.
It also brings better odds of snow to the lower elevations,
including the high valleys and plains. Latest depictions by the
GFS20 would bring snow showers across the high valleys, including
the San Luis, Upper Arkansas and Wet Mountain Valleys on Saturday.
Accumulations don`t look great but some local light accumulations
possible. Both the 00Z and 06Z GFS20 also bring a chance of snow
to the plains late Saturday and Saturday evening. Winds look too
northerly for much accumulation in Springs or Pueblo at this
point but the Palmer and Raton Divides could see a little bit as
well as the plains. Right now, the greatest threat area appears
to be the plains east of the I-25 corridor, out toward Kansas.
This is the area where the system wraps around the best moisture
and the strongest winds. Could be a 6 hour period or so of blowing
snow and low visibilities across this area if recent model trends
continue. In any event, this system looks to clear out of the
area early Sunday with a lull in the action for the remainder of
the day.

Then, late Sunday night through Tuesday, another system rolls in.
This one looks to bring even greater amounts of snow and wind to
the mountains, along with more wind and better chances for snow
across the lower elevations. Latest runs are trending farther
north with the low track which overall means less snow potential
for the lower elevations of southern Colorado. However, old runs
had it farther south and it is still several days a way. Things
could change. Right now, it appears the Palmer Divide is the prime
target for wind and snow late Monday night through Tuesday, with
wind and scattered snow showers farther south. In any event, it
certainly looks a lot colder by Tuesday. The GFS20 currently has
howling north winds lowering 700 mb temperatures to -14C over the
plains by 5 pm Tuesday. That`s gonna hurt a little.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

KALS...areas of fog and low stratus will impact the terminal through
the mid morning hours.  Reduced VIS and CIGS are expected with MVFR
to IFR conditions.  Low stratus will likely hang around most of the
day with decks around 1000 feet.  Another round of low stratus and
fog are expected tonight into Thursday morning.

KCOS...VFR conditions with light winds through the next 24 hours.

KPUB...dense fog will continue at the terminal through the mid
morning hours.  LIFR to IFR CIGS and VIS are expected before
dissipating around 17z.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail this
afternoon.  Westerly low level flow should help prevent fog
development tonight into Thursday morning. Mozley




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