Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 280526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...

PRETTY QUIET MOST AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD SHOW 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMUP OVER TODAY`S READINGS.
WHILE THESE NUMBERS WILL FEEL PRETTY GOOD BY COMPARISON...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT.
FOR AREAS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.  THEN...DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE WIDESPREAD.  MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF MONARCH BY LATE IN THE DAY.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY
EVENING COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE NORTH OF MONARCH PASS WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MONARCH.  FOR EVERYBODY
ELSE...DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY...

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...SNOW WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND A HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED. FURTHER SOUTH...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITA
MOUNTAINS AS DEEPEST MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH...AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AS THE NAM
DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL MIDDAY. MET HAS HIGH OF 30 FOR KPUB ON
MONDAY...WHICH LIKELY IS TOO WARM. SUSPECT THAT IF THE FRONT IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE MORNING...SOME AREAS MAY WARM MODESTLY BEFORE
THE FRONT PASSES. GRIDS CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...WHICH WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT...DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OROGRAPHIC FAVORED
AREAS...SUCH AS MONUMENT HILL AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE SUB ZERO READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER
LOW...AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL MOVE WELL TO THE WEST
OF COLORADO...BEING NEAR THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST WARMING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...AND HIGHS IN
THE LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE 20S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
MILDER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. EC AND GFS HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND -10 TO -14C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARMING ALOFT AND
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE PLAINS. GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT AM THINKING LOWS MAY BE CLOSER TO -5 TO -10F
VERSUS -20F. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
MOUNTAINS. MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH STARTS MOVING EAST AND WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES.

.NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND ARIZONA. STILL A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE UPPER
LOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CURRENTLY ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. WPC DISCUSSION SUGGESTS FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NW QUAD OF THE
STATE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW CHANCES
FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. ISOLATED SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CREAT IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER MT PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE



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