Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 220510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEVADA WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LIFTING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND RATON MESA AREA...BUT NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALL STILL GENERATING A DECENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
FEEL THEY MAY BE OVER DOING THINGS A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SAN JUAN RANGE...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WELL THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...MARGINAL
SEVERE POSSIBLE ON PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

DRIER AIR NOTED OVER PLAINS AS DWPTS OVER FAR EC COLO IN THE
30S...WITH U40S/50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MTNS MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH MUCH RICHER MOISTURE SW OF THE FCST AREA. AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE CONTDVD EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TRRN. A FEW ISOLD
POPS WERE NOTED OVER FAR N EL PASO COUNTY. A FEW CG FLASHES WERE
NOTED WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE INTENSE
LTG ACTIVITY WAS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BACK INTO E UTAH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS. MOST OF THE PRGD HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE IN NWS GJT AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...BUT SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE IT OVER
THE DIVIDE. WILL WAIT TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED. PROS FOR A WATCH IS MODEL FCST...BUT WE (NWS
PUB) REALLY HAVE NOT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION SO SOILS
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED.

18Z NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING LOTS OF PRECIP OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK
REGION BUT I AM DISCOUNTING THIS DUE TO ITS POOR PERFORMANCE THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. RAP GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT DRIER. GFS ALSO A LOT
DRIER PIKES PEAK REGION.

OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...I DONT THINK THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE...AND ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT
GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

TOMORROW....

TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO DURING PRIME HEATING AND WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD BUT CAPE LOOKS
MARGINAL SO SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING.

MOUNTAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS WY AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS MON EVE...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM WEST TO
EAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR E PLAINS...THEN COME TO AN END EARLY TUE MORN ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR SE CORNER AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE S SANGRES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL START TO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES
POPS FOR THE MTS AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THU AFTN ONWARD. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH FRI...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN ON SAT...THROUGH THE
EC IS JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUN...WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD COLORADO.
THE EC HAS THIS LOW OVER NV...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS LOW EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO...SO STILL SOME ROOM FOR
NEGOTIATION THERE. END RESULT IS THAT A COOLER PERIOD WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE FINER
POINTS AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

KALS...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHICH MAY MOVE INTO
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF ONE OF THESE CELLS
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...IT COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.
DO EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BY 08Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LOWERED CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY FALL TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...AS MODELS ARE OVER DOING IT RIGHT NOW...BUT LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS AND KPUB MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.