Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010800
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
200 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Updated to cancel the flash flood watch and refresh near/short
term grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Currently, frontal boundary lying across the far sern plains with a
few stronger cells developing along the front across Las Animas
county. Air mass to the north of the front has become very unstable,
with CAPE in the 1500-2000 j/kg range along and north of the
Arkansas River, though weak convection over Teller/El Paso counties
has produced a pool of more stable air which may limit strong storm
potential the next few hours. Mountains/interior valleys have seen
mainly isolated storms so far, with some brief heavy rain under the
stronger cells.

For this evening and overnight, expect convection over north central
colorado to expand and push southward into the eastern plains, with
strongest storms along the axis of instability which will lie
roughly from KDEN to KLIC to KLAA. Have hoisted a flash flood watch
for portions of the sern plains to account for this scenario, as
heaviest rain may fall over locations that saw moderate to heavy
rainfall last night. Area around Colorado Springs may be too stable
for deep convection to redevelop, though eastern El Paso county
could see some stronger storms drop se through the area later
tonight. Arkansas Valley from La Junta west through Pueblo still a
puzzle, as deep instability remains in place and HRRR has been
insisting all afternoon that convection will soon develop, but so
far strongest storms have stayed well south. Threat of severe storms
over the plains remains marginal with weak shear, though if large
enough MCS can form, there may be an increased threat of damaging
winds if deep cold pool develops. Mountains will see a continuation
of isolated to scattered storms, with convection going through the
night as moisture increases. Plains convection will taper off late
tonight as MCS shifts into KS, though won`t end pops completely as
models keep at least isolated storms going through the night.

Convection will become widespread on Friday as upper trough
approaches from the west and slug of deeper moisture over AZ/NM
lifts northward. Over the plains, MCS outflow should shove frontal
boundary southward toward nrn NM, which will allow tongue of deeper
moisture and instability to push back westward across the plains
toward the I-25 corridor by afternoon. May need another flash flood
watch for portions of the area beginning Fri afternoon, but will
wait to see how overnight convection evolves before issuance.
Clouds/precip and upslope flow should keep max temps down another
day with all areas staying below 90f once again.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday night through Sunday...A very chaotic atmosphere remains in
place across the state this weekend, with a number of shortwaves
rippling across the forecast area through Sunday morning. This upper
level support, added to easterly upslope sfc winds and abundant llvl
moisture as evident by 55-60 F dewpoints, will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms in place through Sunday morning. More of a
concern will be the threat of over-saturated soils and flash
flooding for sloped areas during a near 48 hr window of precip
potential. Therefore, kept a mention of thunderstorms with moderate
rain through midnight Sat night, and depending on what occurs
tonight, might have to consider a flash flood watch for much of the
plains Sat aftn and eve as well. Extensive cloud cover and
convective activity will keep max temps in the 70s and 80s, with
overnight min temps in the upper 40s to around 60 F.

Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge of high pressure tries to
build back into the Desert SW, while an upper trough gathers
strength over British Columbia and the Pacific NW. This will provide
for warmer and more dry conditions through the work week, with max
temps climbing back up into the 90s to near 100 F for the plains,
and mid to upper 80s for the high valleys. Convection chances will
taper off, with a more typical isolated diurnal pattern settling in
for the mts. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Convection across the eastern plains will help push a boundary
east and bank it up across the eastern mountains overnight. Moist
easterly upslope flow will allow for MVFR and IFR conditions
stratus to develop at COS and PUB through the early morning hours.
Stratus to slowly give way across the eastern plains with mainly
VFR conditions with scattered showers and storms across the area
through the afternoon and into tomorrow evening. Storms that move
across COS...PUB and ALS will be capable of producing MVRF and
local IFR condtions with heavy rain.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$


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