Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 102138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CO AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES. CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS UT...AZ...NM AND
WESTERN CO AS OF 3 PM...BUT SO FAR HAS BEEN MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
ALONG THE CONTDVD AND WESTWARD. TEMPS HAVE WARMED IMPRESSIVELY TODAY
AS ADVERTISED...WITH 90S TO NEAR 100 F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MEAGER SO
FAR TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SOON AFTER
SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. TOMORROW MORNING...12-
14Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND BRING A NORTH WIND SHIFT FOR THE I 25 CORRIDOR FROM COS TO
PUB. IT MOST LIKELY WILL THEN SWING BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH AFTN
CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN INITIALLY OVER THE MTS...THEN SPREADING
TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A LOT OF CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE BATTLING SFC
WINDS...SO A BIT MORE COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE TRUE NORTHERLY PUSH WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

 ...WET WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE NM BORDER SAT EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOSH WESTWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD FRI
EVENING...WITH 18Z NAM SUGGESTING BETTER WESTWARD PUSH HOLDING OFF
UNTIL SAT MORNING. WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT FRI AS FRONT COMES THROUGH...BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE PALMER DIVIDE AND PLAINS NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. ON SAT...LOW LEVELS WILL FEATURE STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO...EMBEDDED IN LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW (10-15 KTS). THIS SET-UP SHOULD SPARK FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES/WETS/RAMPART RANGE...WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS LEADING TO
SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS. STORMS
MAY STRUGGLE TO PUSH TOO FAR EAST OF I-25 INITIALLY SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT OUTFLOWS TO HELP MOVE CONVECTION TOWARD
THE KS BORDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. MAX TEMPS
SAT SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGF VERSUS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY...MOIST AIR MASS COVERS MOST OF THE AREA AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY
AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...SETTING UP A FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

ON MONDAY...UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE...BOTH AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE MON
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION
MOST LOCATIONS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS AS STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AFTER ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM
DAY MON...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL COVER THE AREA TUE-THU...AS UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE STATE. AIR MASS WILL BE
COOLER/DRIER/MORE STABLE TUE...WHICH COULD LIMIT TSRA OVER THE
PLAINS...THOUGH MTS WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING TO CONTINUE THE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WED/THU...WHICH WILL KEEP TSRA
CHANCES GOING ALL AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE THREE SITES THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 02Z-
04Z FOR THE ISOLATED STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CG LTG AND OCNL ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW
TO 35-40 MPH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DVD FRI MORNING BETWEEN 12-15Z...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH FOR KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
A SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

CONCEPTUALLY...WEATHER PATTERN (UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW-LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW) WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
TENDED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. 180 HR QPF FROM THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST THE REGION FROM THIS FRI THROUGH
NEXT THU AFTERNOON...AND WHILE 12Z GFS HAS SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION ISSUES...IT TOO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-4
INCHES DURING THE SAME PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS MOVE OVER ANY BURN SCAR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN



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