Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU
THIS EVENING...AND WL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THIS TIME OVR NRN AND ERN CO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. OVR THE FORECAST
AREA...MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ERN
MTNS AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOMING SVR OR MARGINALLY SVR THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING OVR THE ERN PLAINS.  BY MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE ENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER.

AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE.  ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE DRIER AIR OVR THE AREA ON TUE...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH
MSTR AROUND FOR SOME ISOLD MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE H5 CENTER SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH WY WED NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK SOME ISOLD TO CT
STORMS OVER THE MTS LATE WED...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...AND
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE UPPER 90S BACK TO MOST OF SE
CO...ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN
MORE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
HOT SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AT BEST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EWD
INTO TX...AND SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CO. THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO WRN CO AS A TROUGH MOVES ASHORE
OVER NRN CA...AND THEN TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE MTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH STRENGTHENS MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW CO. THE
ERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST...BRINGING OUR AREA BACK TO A DRY AND HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
BUT HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR IS DEBATABLE. THE GFS RETURNS US TO THIS
DRY AND HOT PATTERN AS SOON AS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
TIL LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACNW...AND A RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
DETERMINE DAILY POPS AND TEMPS. SO...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA TOMOROW AFTERNOON AT ANY OF THE 3 TAF
SITES...THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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