Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
FXUS65 KPUB 161718
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Dangerous fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening...
Currently...quiet conditions exist across southern Colorado early
this morning. Temperatures range from the lower 60s along the lee
slopes of the Eastern Mountains, to the mid 40s near the Kansas
border. Satellite imagery indicates the leading edge of an upper
disturbance moving into western Colorado.
Today...the main concern for this afternoon will be high fire danger
across much of Southern Colorado. The upper disturbance over
western Colorado is forecast to lift northeast into Wyoming by this
evening with a secondary wave of energy moving into the region this
evening. Strong winds, models indicating 75 kts or greater at 500
mb, and up to 50 kts at 700 mb, are forecast to move across Colorado
this afternoon. Strong mixing will bring these winds to the surface
and reduce humidity values to less than 10 percent for much of the
region. Strong winds, low humidities and critically dry fuels will
combine to produce extremely dangerous fire weather conditions,
especially for the San Luis Valley, the Eastern Mountains, east into
the I-25 corridor. Further east across the plains, winds do not
look quite as strong, however, high fire danger will still be
observed. Any outdoor burning should be postponed, including
grilling, due to the dangerous conditions. Temperatures will once
again be hot today. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s
for the plains. A few locations may reach record highs, in fact
Pueblo could be pushing the month of October highest max (94
Tonight...fire weather concerns will transition this evening to high
wind threats for the mountains and lee slopes tonight into Monday
morning. Jet energy will continue to move across Colorado with
another surge of strong winds pushing across the state. Mountain
areas will see the strongest winds, where peaks will likely see
gusts in excess of 75 kts late tonight. As far as the lee slopes,
model cross sections are indicating a potential for downslope winds
in the lee of the southern Sangre de Cristo range late tonight into
Monday morning. Have added western Las Animas County to the high
wind watch due to the potential of these downslope winds. Winds of
this strength may produce damage, especially in the mountains. Take
precautions to secure loose outdoor items like furniture.
Temperatures will be another challenge tonight. Kept overnight lows
above guidance along the lee slopes and gap areas due to the winds.
These areas may be even warmer than the upper 50s to lower 60s in
the forecast, while areas further east will drop into the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Strong Winds and High Fire Danger...
Strong westerly flow will bring a period of hot...windy and dry
weather to the forecast area. When combined with fuels that are
dry, the fire danger will be high through Monday. Outdoor burning
or any other activities that could spark a fire should be postponed
during this period.
Winds early Monday morning may gust over 75 mph in the mountains and
to 60 mph or more across the plains adjacent to the mountains. A
strong upper level jet crossing the state, combined with a favorable
structure for mountain wave amplification could bring strong and
even damaging winds to the surface along and near the mountains
early Monday morning. Maximum wind speeds will decrease during the
day Monday as deep mixing breaks down the mountain wave structure
but winds will still be strong and gusty as strong momentum
transport brings down high winds from aloft. Consequently, although
the High Wind Watch will come down during the early afternoon, a Red
Flag Warning for strong winds, low humidities and, ultimately, high
fire danger, will continue for most of the area throughout the day.
Monday will be super warm again for this time of year with afternoon
highs anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees above average.
Things begin to settle down a bit beginning Monday night as a cold
front comes through. The front will bring in cooler air, higher
humidities and lower wind speeds. As a result, the fire danger
should drop off Tuesday and no fire weather watch or warning
products are anticipated at this time. Temperatures will drop 20
degrees over the plains, taking temperatures down close to average.
Farther west, across the mountains and high valleys, temperatures
will drop around 5 degrees but remain about 5 degrees above average
for this time of year.
Another, stronger push of cold air will move in Wednesday. This
could actually take temperatures down below average by several
degrees for a change. It could also take temperatures down below
freezing across most of the area, including the eastern Colorado
plains, by Thursday morning. If this happens, it could be the first
widespread freeze of the season for the plains and bring an end to
the growing season. The airmass starts to warm a little over the
region Thursday afternoon as upper high pressure begins to rebuild.
However, Friday morning could still be near or below freezing in
many areas. On Saturday, some spotty near freezing temperatures may
still be found over the plains early in the day but by afternoon
temps will be back well above average again.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Main concern will be winds at the TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Westerly winds will become steadier and stronger through
the afternoon at KCOS...KALS...and KPUB with gusts up to 35 kts
possible. Winds will relax during the evening and overnight
though Mtn top winds will be sustained around 50-60 kts with gusts
to near 80 kts as the upper level jet stream moves across. This
will lead to pockets of LLWS along the lower eastern
slopes...particularly from 06z to 16z. However appears that threat
for LLWS will stay to the west of KCOS through this period. This
will need to be monitored closely. Winds will resurface at the
terminals during the late morning on Monday. Otherwise...expect
VFR conditions with passing high cloudiness at times. -KT
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
High Wind Watch from 11 PM MDT this evening through Monday
afternoon for COZ058-060-061-066-068-072>075-079>082.