Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
505 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...

SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW
TODAY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALL
PRESENT ONCE AGAIN.  THE GOOD NEWS IS...SHEAR WILL BE LESS...
RESULTING IN LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GENERALLY PROGGED AT JUST 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND THE
LOWEST TO THE WEST.  SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION AND
TORNADOES SHOULD BE LESS TODAY.

HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP OVER THE AREA AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS PER
KILOMETER.  THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A COLD UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 7800 FEET IN ASPEN THIS
MORNING.  SO...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY
SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
JUST ABOUT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN TODAY...INCLUDING SMALL COLD AIR
FUNNELS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET...COULD EVEN SEE SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
GRAUPEL ACCUMULATING UP TO A FEW INCHES.  AS FOR THE TRUE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...SHOULD BE RATHER LOW TODAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS SO LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LARGE HAILER OR TWO...PRODUCING HAILSTONES UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN
DIAMETER.  ALSO...AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WRONG LOCATION COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.

TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AND GENERALLY
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH
DAYS...WITH DIURNAL AFTN/EVE MT CONVECTION EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND AROUND 80F FOR THE E PLAINS.

THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST LATE WED...WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE PAC
NW AND SLIDING ACROSS IDAHO. THIS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL START DRAWING A
BIT MORE MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF COLORADO FOR THU. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM AND IN THE
70S...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM TUE AND WED.
HOWEVER...SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO ON FRIDAY...AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRI MORNING. LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
SETTLE IN FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...COOLER TEMPS AND A VERY GOOD
WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE LOWER
60S FOR SAT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED SAT EVE AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO WESTERN KS AND NE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS KS AND NE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS RESTRICTED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD START WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 70S
FOR THE PLAINS AND SLV. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

COLD...UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.  WIND SHEAR WILL BE LESS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR TRUE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE DECREASED.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE SMALL COLD AIR FUNNELS...HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  SHOWERS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET WHERE LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST HAIL TODAY
SHOULD BE PEA-SIZE OR LESS.  HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL TO AN INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY
LOW FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN THE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL ALL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.  WILL CARRY VCTS IN ALL 3 TERMINAL
FORECASTS BEGINNING 18-20Z.  THESE TAFS WILL LIKELY BE SUBJECT TO
MULTIPLE AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PENDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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