540
FXUS65 KPUB 262046
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
246 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Friday and Saturday, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms
  both days, mainly over the higher terrain.

- A pattern change arrives Sunday, leading to a period of near
  to below normal temperatures, and daily chances for showers
  and storms through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated brief thunderstorms were occurring in a weakly
unstable (CAPE 400-800 J/KG) air mass along the I-25 corridor
at midday, with slightly better coverage of storms near/south
of the Raton Mesa where mid-level moisture is marginally higher.
Farther west, moisture is extremely limited, with surface
dewpoints in the teens/single digits along the Continental
Divide/Upper Arkansas Valley leading to only some very shallow
convective cloudiness and little if any rainfall. For the
remainder of the afternoon and into this evening, still a risk
of isolated storms from the eastern mountains onto the plains,
with best chance for activity along the Palmer Divide and south
near the NM and OK borders. Again, storms will be brief, with
mainly lightning/wind/brief rainfall for a 10-20 minute period
before storms dissipate. Expect most activity to end by midnight
with loss of heating.

Slightly warmer on Fri with as upper ridge builds a bit and mid
level temps creep up a degc or two. Expect a repeat performance
of isolated afternoon convection once again, best chances over
the eastern mountains and along the Palmer Divide, with perhaps
a weak storm on the plains near the KS border (especially Baca
County) by early evening. Again, too dry for much more than some
afternoon cloud build-ups farther west along the Continental
Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Friday Night and Saturday..

Convection looks to taper early in the evening hours of Friday,
clearing from west to east across our far eastern plains by around
9pm or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be very close to
normal, cooling into the 60s across the eastern plains, 50s for the
I-25 corridor, and 40s for mountain valleys. Models continue to show
a transition period for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds
in over the southwest, and eventually centers itself over the Four
Corners region next week. This will mean messy southwest flow with
slightly above normal temperatures and southerly flow at the surface
for Saturday. Highs look to climb into the 90s across much of the
plains, with 80s for the northern and southern I-25 corridors, and
80s for mountain valleys as well. Showers and storms look increase
in coverage slightly from Friday, but will likely remain isolated
and mainly confined the higher country, the Pikes Peak region, and
the Raton Mesa for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Onwards..

Models continue to depict shortwave energy traversing the region on
Sunday, along with a cold frontal passage sometime Sunday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms look to increase in coverage on Sunday,
with scattered coverage expected over portions of the high country.
Depending on cold frontal timing, we will likely see another day of
slightly above normal temperatures on Sunday before the front
arrives, with most plains locations still climbing into the 80s and
90s. Behind the front, temperatures fall back down into the 4 to 6
degrees cooler than normal range for Monday and Tuesday. Highs both
days are likely to remain in the 80s over both the plains and our
mountain valleys. Chances for near or below normal temperatures and
widespread, persistent showers and storms increase for much of next
week in fact, as models continue to build high pressure over the
Four Corners region with a low off the California coast. With the
low sitting off the coast and the pattern persistence not quite yet
known, this forecaster is hesitant to officially call next week`s
setup the start of the monsoon, however, it does show promising
signs of bringing some much needed "monsoon-looking" moisture to the
region, especially to our southwest mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs with diurnal wind cycle of
12 kts or less. Low risk of a -tsra over Pikes Peak Region/Palmer
Divide this afternoon, though activity looks too isolated to
include in the KCOS taf at this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN