Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 282111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THREAT TRANSITIONS TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY...

UPPER LOW ACROSS NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EASTWARD TONIGHT.
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST CO
AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THEY EXPERIENCED LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS DOWN THAT WAY RANGE FROM AROUND .60 TO A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH...BUT FELL IN A STEADY LIGHT FASHION OF GENERALLY UNDER .15
PER HOUR.  AS REPEATED EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN WITH OUR MORE FLASHIER
WALDO BURN SCAR...THESE RATES ARE NOT INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.  CALLS OUT TO MINERAL COUNTY SHERIFF INDICATE NO PROBLEMS
WERE NOTED THUS FAR.  WILL STILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT A STRAY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS GROUND IS NOW SATURATED...BUT SO FAR CAPES ARE NOT THAT
HIGH (A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST)...AND THINK THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH 6 PM. WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE AT THAT
TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGER CELLS...BUT AGAIN...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH
YET (500 J/KG OR LESS)...AND SUSPECT THAT RAPID NORTHERLY STORM
MOTIONS NORTH AT 30-35 MPH SHOULD PREVENT RAINFALL FROM GETTING
HEAVY ENOUGH ON ANY OF THE OTHER BURN SCARS TO CAUSE TOO MUCH
TROUBLE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS AZ...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CO ON MONDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY KEEP SOME
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ATMOS WILL BE DRIER
NOW THAT THE TAP OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH...SO
THINK ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MEANWHILE...50 DEW POINTS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS START TO MIX OUT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...BUT REMAIN IN THE 50S EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CROWLEY...OTERO...LAS ANIMAS...KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA
COUNTIES.  DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH
COOLING ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON...MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR A LITTLE BETTER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
DAY...THEN MOVE OFF INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  WOULD LIKE TO A LITTLE BETTER BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO BE CONFIDENT OF A BIGGER TORNADO
THREAT.  LCLS ARE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL...BUT NOT OUTSIDE
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.  BUT WITH COOLING ALOFT INCREASING THE
CAPE IN THE LOWER/MID PART OF THE SOUNDING...A QUICK SPIN UP WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS FARTHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AND OF COURSE IF WINDS CAN SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN THE TORNADO THREAT COULD GO UP. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON THE BURN SCARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND
THIS MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENOUGH TO DECREASE THE THREAT TO ALL
BUT THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT

...LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EJECTION OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE 12Z NAM REMAINING THE SLOWEST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z TUE WHICH THEN
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND UVV WITH
THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
TORNADOES ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...WITH MAIN LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...SAVE A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CONTDVD.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COOL AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM.
MODELS AGAIN DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH WITH THE GFS LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AOA 10K FEET WITH POSSIBLE
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOWLY WARMING TREND TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE OFFING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND..AS LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SLOW BUILDS
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTDVD OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE HIGHER PEAKS UNDER PERIODS OF IFR TO
EVEN LIFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA/-SN AT TIMES.  THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR...BUT KALS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE THREAT OF A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB...KCOS COULD SEE
A VCTS THROUGH 01Z.  ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORM THREATS...ALONG WITH BRIEF VFR CIGS/VIS IN -TSRA.  THREAT
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...THEN PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15-30 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT


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