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000
FXUS65 KPUB 200938
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Currently...Cold front has moved into New Mexico. Winds are
already transitioning to southeast after some gusty northerly
winds behind the front. Only some high mountain wave clouds over
the southern portion of the CWA.

Today and Tonight...Dry and mostly clear forecast.  As the surface
high moves east of the region, anticipate some gusty southerly winds
developing along the Interstate 25 corridor during the afternoon.
With cooler temperatures and higher dew points on the plains,
conditions will remain below red flag criteria. Over the mountains,
flow aloft transitions to southwesterly. Temperatures over the
mountains and high valleys will be similar to Tuesday with gusty
southwest winds developing in the afternoon.   Generally quiet
tonight with gusty winds confined mostly to the ridgetops. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The first concern in the long term is the potential for critical
fire weather conditions on Thu.  Thu will be another dry day acrs
the forecast area with strong southwest winds over the area.  Wind
gusts acrs the I-25 corridor and southeast plains should be 25 mph
or greater in most area Thu afternoon.  Have opted to lean toward
the lower dew point given in the NAM guidance acrs the southeast
plains, which results in most of the southeast plains seeing RH
values below 15 percent.  Dew points are highest near the KS border
and it may end up that the lower dew points in the NAM guidance are
too low.  There is some uncertainty as to whether or not the RH
values near the KS border will fall low enough to reach Red Flag
criteria.  With the morning forecast issuance, will go with a Fire
Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor and all of the southeast plains.

Ahead of an upper trof over the western states, there will be a
slight increase in moisture Thu night and Fri, with some pcpn along
the Continental Divide beginning Thu night.  Fri afternoon pcpn is
also forecast over the far southeast CO plains, with the potential
for severe weather, with CAPES forecast to be 2000+ J/kg, and deep
layer shear values of around 50 kts.  Although it will again be
breezy to windy acrs the forecast area on Fri, RH values are not
expected to be low enough for fire weather concerns.

A large upper trof will settle in acrs the Great Basin for Sat and
Sun, with pcpn chances acrs the area and once again the potential
for some severe weather over the southeast plains.  After days of
above average temps, cooler temps are in store for Sat and should be
around to slightly below average.  A front come thru on Sun and
temps will be even cooler, in the 60s to lower 70s at the lower
elevations.  Pcpn chances will remain high over the southeast plains
and eastern mtns, and more isold to sct over western areas.

Mon the upper trof is forecast to be near the western CO border.
Pcpn chances look lower as more stable conditions exist, and mainly
the mtn areas will probably see some pcpn.  Temps on Mon will
probably be just a little cooler than Sun.  The upper trof is
expected to be over the state on Tue and once again, mostly the mtns
and nearby areas will see pcpn and highs will mostly be in the 60s
at lower elevations.

This weekend and early next week, there will be some snow over the
mtns, mostly above about 9500 feet.  Overnight low temps may fall to
near freezing in the San Luis Valley Mon and Tue mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR at all sites.  Gusty south winds will develop this afternoon at
KCOS and KPUB and winds will weaken in the evening.  At KALS, gusty
southwest winds aloft will mix to the surface during the afternoon.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW