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776
FXUS65 KPUB 180156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
756 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Updated the evening forecast for current pcpn  trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...Thunderstorms Continue Mainly in and near the Mountains...

Somewhat drier air has moved in over the region today.  Water vapor
pictures show drier conditions and dewpoints are running a little
lower than yesterday.  The drying is enough to limit activity over
the plains but not really enough to reduce activity over and near
the mountains. Consequently, scattered thunderstorms will continue
this evening over and near the mountains with some isolated activity
out across the plains.  Primary risks this evening will be similar
to past evenings.  Flash flooding on burn scars will be the main
concern.  Other concerns will include lightning, gusty winds to
around 50 mph and spotty hail up to the size of nickles. With the
drier air and lack of a significant trigger, it doesn`t appear that
tonight`s convection will last as long as previous nights. It should
diminish after sunset and be done by midnight. Little change in the
weather pattern for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Models not changing their story of upper high shifting
eastward into midweek.  Tendency is for some drying of the
atmosphere, with the monsoon plume more south and west of the CWA.
Warm air aloft and subsiding air with the upper ridge will also work
to lessen coverage of any convection that fires across the higher
terrain.  Any storms that develop will be slow moving, bringing the
potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding, mainly across
burn scars and urban areas.  Temperatures will be at or slightly
above seasonal norms.

For Thursday through Sunday, the upper high is centered, for the
most part, across the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley,
which will allow for increasing monsoonal moisture with southwest
flow aloft. Should see increasing chances and coverage of afternoon
and evening storms into the upcoming weekend. Models also indicate a
weak front moving south into the eastern plains on Saturday, leading
to increasing low level moisture and the potential for more
widespread and stronger storms across the eastern plains during the
weekend. There will be a the daily risk of flash flooding through
this period, especially across urban areas and burn scars, with
temperatures cooling to near or slightly below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The summer monsoon will bring another round of evening thunderstorms
to the flight area. The mountains will likely see the greatest
coverage of storms with activity more isolated east of the
mountains. Primary storm risks will include lightning, gusty winds,
locally heavy rain and spots of hail up to nickel size. Convection
should diminish after sunset and be done by midnight.  Flight
conditions will deteriorate to MVFR, IFR and LIFR through areas of
precipitation. Little change in the weather pattern for Tuesday.

Both the KCOS and KALS sites will see a chance of thunderstorms at
or near the terminals starting around 22Z. KPUB will probably remain
east of the activity although a storm is not out of the question.
Additionally, KPUB will still be close enough to the storms to be
impacted by lightning and gusty outflow winds.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW