National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 251048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING.  IT IS ALSO PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THIS MORNING...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN
AN INCH.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 9 AM.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.  BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD
WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW DISSIPATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

...CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK...

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET MOST OF THE WEEK.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF BAJA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
BUT...IN GENERAL...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE A LITTLE.  SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE COOLER AIR
SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL GO UP A LITTLE MORE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN A LITTLE MORE. THE EXTENT OF THE
CHANGE IS STILL IN BIG QUESTION RIGHT NOW AS MODEL RUNS ARE
INCONSISTENT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS...FOR EXAMPLE...HAD MUCH
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...THAN THE 06Z RUN CURRENTLY DOES. THE 06Z RUN HOLDS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
THAN THE GFS. WITH SO MUCH INCONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT
NOW. IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY