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435
FXUS65 KPUB 251803
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1203 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Today an upper level trof will be over the northern Rockies,
resulting in westerly flow aloft over southern CO.  The best
moisture over CO today is expected to be over the northern half of
the state. A cold front is expected to stay north of southeast CO
through the afternoon and then move south into the area in the
evening.

For today, the best chances for showers/tstms are expected to be
over and near the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges, with some isold
activity over the southwest mtns and the Pikes Peak region. Once the
front moves south into southeast CO this evening, there could be a
couple strong to severe thunderstorms in El Paso and Kiowa counties.
It looks like it will be quite windy from the west to southwest over
much of the area, especially from the I-25 corridor counties and
westward. Wind speeds are expected to be 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts. Relative humidities will mostly be below 15 percent this
afternoon over the lower elevations.  Even though winds and
humidities are expected to be at critical levels with respect to
fire weather, the fuels are not critical and thus a fire weather
highlight will not be needed. High temps today will be above average
across all of southern CO. Temps will mostly be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s acrs the southeast plains, and in the 70s in the San Luis
and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.

In the overnight hours, some isold pcpn chance may continue over the
central mtns and over the Pikes Peak region, but the rest of the
area should be dry.  Most areas should see overnight low temps near
average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Friday...Southwest flow aloft across the state as an upper low
crosses ID and nears Colorado. Southerly sfc winds are expected to
produce another very warm day for the forecast area, but decent llvl
shear combined with moisture advection and around 1500-2000 j/kg of
CAPE spells an active aftn for the e plains. SPC Day 2 outlook
indicates the far eastern plains in a marginal area, with the slight
area clipping Kiowa county, so strong to severe storms will be the
concern for Fri. Look for max temps in the 70s to around 80F.

Saturday and Sunday...A cold front drops south across the eastern
plains late Fri night, ushering in cooler air for the east both Sat
and Sun. Also, the upper low that was over ID on Fri crosses the
Rockies on Sat as it weakens, bringing widespread pcpn chances to
the forecast area on Sat, then pcpn mainly tied to the higher
terrain on Sun. Look for high temps in the 60s and 70s for most
areas both days.

Monday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure develops over
the western third of the country for the start of the next work
week, but models indicate that a closed low will also develop over
the CA baja. This will help to draw moisture up into the Four
Corners region, providing for a daily chance of aftn and eve showers
and thunderstorms. Expect max temps to climb into the mid 60s to mid
70s for most locations each day. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today...with main concern
being persistent gusty west to southwest winds. Gusts up to 35 kts
will be possible at all three TAF sites through the afternoon. A
cold front will drop through the plains bringing a north to
northwesterly wind shift at KCOS around 00z and at KPUB by
01-02z. Isolated -TSRA will be possible across northern El Paso
county through the late afternoon and evening behind the
front...however trends suggest they will stay too far north to
warrant inclusion in the KCOS TAF. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT