Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 122225

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tonight an upper level low wl be moving eastward acrs nrn Mexico,
just south of AZ.  Moisture and a weak disturbance from this system
are expected to moving northward into southern CO, bringing chances
for pcpn to the area.  The most favored areas for pcpn tonight will
be across the southern third of the state.  The models show the best
agreement over Las Animas and Baca counties, where they show between
about 1 and 3 inches of snow accumulation in the late night hours,
probably mostly on grassy areas.  The models do not agree on what
will happen over the southwest CO mtns. The GFS and RAP show only
the potential for light snow accumulations, while the NAM has
several inches. There are some minor differences over the southern
Sangre De Cristo mtns.

Monday and Monday night, that upper level will track eastward along
the srn New Mexico border.  The models agree on a band of pcpn acrs
the southeast CO plains Mon morning, but the location is a bit
different and thus the bullseyes of pcpn.  The NAM remains more
heavy-handed over the souther mountains and over portions of the San
Luis Valley for Monday morning than the GFS.  Other locations in the
forecast area could just see some spotty pcpn Mon morning.  In the
afternoon hours, most of the mtn locations are forecast to see some
snow, with the NAM and GFS not agreeing on amounts.  Once again the
NAM is showing much more than the GFS, mainly over the SW mtns and
southern Chaffee county.  At the lower elevations, temps should
generally be warm enough for rain rather than snow. It is possible
that some of the southern mtns could see advisory level snow amounts
tonight through monday night, but with the models not in good
agreement, will hold off on issuing anything at this time.

With that upper low remaining to our south Mon night there wl still
be chances for pcpn, mainly over the southern quarter of the state,
with some additional light accumulations of snow in the mtns.  The
upper low then track into TX on Tue and drier conditions and warmer
temps are expected over southern CO, along with some breezy
northerly winds over the eastern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tuesday night-Thursday night...Generally warm and dry weather
remains in the forecast through this period, as northerly flow aloft
across the region Tuesday night gives way to more west to southwest
flow through the day Thursday, as upper level ridging building
across the Great Basin continues into the Rockies. At and above
seasonal temperatures looks to prevail across the area with highs in
60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 30s
to 50s across the higher terrain. The warm and dry weather will
likely lead to elevated fire danger across the area, although winds
look to remain generally on the light side through Thursday.

Friday-Sunday...Increasing west to southwest flow aloft expected
through the day Friday, as a minor short wave ejects across the
Great Basin and through the Rockies, ahead of an eastern Pacific
system moving onshore across the West Coast. This first system looks
to bring a quick shot of snow to the higher elevations along the
ContDvd Friday and Friday night, with breezy and warm conditions
continuing across the rest of the area.  Moderate to strong west to
southwest flow aloft continues across the region through the
weekend, as West Coast system moves across the Great Basin and
through the Rockies through the period. Models differ on timing and
strength of this passing system, though looks to bring good chances
of precipitation to areas over and near the ContDvd through the
weekend, with lesser chances of precipitation to eastern portions of
the area.  This system does not look to have a lot of cold air
associated with it, so at or above seasonal temperatures looks to be
the rule through the upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB tonight.  Mon morning
there will be the possibility of some showers moving into the area,
especially at KPUB, which could bring some lower ceilings for a time.
KALS should have VFR conditions this evening, but forecast soundings
are showing low ceilings by late evening and then continuing thru
Mon morning, along with the chance for pcpn.




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