Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 141224
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS WITH A LATE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BY 18Z...THEN INTO SW KANSAS BY 00Z.  ALREADY STARTING TO
SEE SOME RAPID SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  AS IT
DOES...SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BACA COUNTY...AND AS
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S COUPLED BY COOLING ALOFT WITH
THE INCOMING CLOSED LOW...MAY YIELD UP TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE ACCORDING
TO RAP13...WHICH GLANCES THROUGH BACA AND EASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES
THIS MORNING.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEARS COULD LEAD TO ONE OR TWO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL
UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER. CONCEPTUALLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE SURFACE LOW MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO RESULT IN
A TORNADO THREAT.  BUT NOT SURE HOW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE...AND THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO SW KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WELL DEFINED TROWAL SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF I-25.  VARIOUS MODELS PRINT OUT A
GOOD HALF INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  HOWEVER COLD AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL STAY AS RAIN UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN IT WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW.  BY THEN HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...AND
APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO ON
GRASSY SURFACES.  IF THE RAIN TO SNOW SWITCH OVER CAN OCCUR
EARLIER...THEN ITS POSSIBLE THAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST
OF KLHX.  BUT TIMING OF THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK EARLY ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS
ONCE IT SWITCHES OVER...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  WARM GROUND WILL ALSO BE A MITIGATING FACTOR
TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  SUSPECT THAT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS REASSESS THIS.  MEANWHILE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...H7 FLOW MAY BRIEFLY SWING AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN THEY QUICKLY SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z...WHICH REALLY LIMITS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THE SANGRES MAY FAIR
BEST...AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD THIS MORNING.
BUT ON THE WHOLE...CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES LOOKS GOOD...AND
APPEARS THAT PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY...AND THE WET MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT NEED ANY HIGHLIGHTS. STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 5-10 FOR THE
SANGRES...3 TO 6 FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE VALLEYS.  SOME LOCAL AREAS ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT
AGAIN...TIMING OF THE RAIN/SNOW SWITCH OVER IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY...AS NORTH WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45
MPH THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT..ESPECIALLY AS THEY ACCELERATE
DOWN THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE EAST OF I-25.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
BRIEF BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS THIS THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL

MEANWHILE...THIS NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR COS AND PUB DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER.
HOWEVER...TROWAL IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST EITHER SO THERE IS ROOM
FOR SOME MARGIN OF ERROR SHOULD THE UPPER LOW INTENSIFY A BIT MORE
RAPIDLY...AND UPGLIDE SETS UP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
MODELS ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO
THE EAST OF I-25...SO THIS IS THE WAY THE FORECAST IS PLAYED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING.  THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS COULD
OCCUR IF TEMPERATURES CAN COOL RAPIDLY ENOUGH.  COULD EASILY SEE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND...BUT AGAIN LATE SWITCH OVER...AND WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT
THESE ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
MORNING.  MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT HAVE THIS IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER EASTERN KANSAS...CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. ISOLATED
SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL MTS MON MORNING...BUT BY THE
AFTN AND THROUGH THE EVENING THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
COOL. MINOR RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...WITH CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE CONTDVD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PAC NW AND CA WED MORNING. AS IT APPROACHES COLORADO...ISOLATED
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD SHOULD START BY WED AFTN. THE GFS AND EC
MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE BEST FORECAST IS PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WITH SEASONAL TEMPS...AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MTS
WITH BROAD BRUSH ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REMAINING AREAS. SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS TAKING THE SOUTHERN ROUTE TO GET TO COLORADO...IT IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY COLD SYSTEM.

SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A TRANSIENT RIDGE FOR
SAT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE CWA DRY WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ISOLATED SNOW WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTS LATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AT KCOS
AND KPUB.  CIGS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH SHOWERS...BUT THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO THE WEST WILL
SEE PERIODS OF IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IN SN THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS SPREADING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SNOW
MIX OR SWITCH OVER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.  THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR KALS TONIGHT...AND LATER
TAFS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL ONCE MORE CERTAINTY IS
GAINED. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>060-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ072>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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