Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270513
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK AREA. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SPRING TIME SNOW TO THE PEAKS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
FOR NOW THIS WATCH WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE LIKELY OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MTS...BUT TRACK AND OVERALL
QPF POTENTIAL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS...A
FOOT OR MORE...FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS CERTAIN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. COLDER EVENT STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE SECOND SYSTEM...AND THAT WILL BE THE ONE MORE LIKELY
TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME WINTER HEADLINES FOR
SOME OF THE LOWER ZONES GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED MT CONVECTION. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WAS EDGING TO THE NORTH INTO WYOMING. STORMS WITH
SNOW WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF MONUMENT...WHILE 88D RADAR CLEARLY
SHOWED THE SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY...BEING
HELD IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING BY SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AND THE PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO SEEP IN.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE AREA OF LOW PRESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
EDGE TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PIVOTING TO THE EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS WY AND NE
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING THEN
MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 03Z-
04Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
EL PASO COUNTY...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. WITH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR...HIGHER RH
AND POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAD TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FROM 10 PM THROUGH 8 AM.
OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL EBB AND SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR ALL LOCATIONS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE MTS...LOOK
FOR TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO KEEP PCPN RESTRICTED
TO THE MTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BY MIDDAY A BIT MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE
SLV AND I25 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

...WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH
SNOW...RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES REVOLVE AROUND IT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
(AND POSSIBLY LOWER ELEVATIONS)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER CO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER S CALIF AT THIS TIME
AND IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION WED NITE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS S 700
MB FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWER TO CONTINUE
OVER THE MTS WED NITE AND MOVE NORTH. TOWARDS SUNRISE...ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE S CALIF SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE CONTDVD AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TRRN WED NITE.

THURSDAY...

S CALIF SHORT WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALL AREAS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS/S MTN INTERFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE PLAINS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN PLACES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIE ON THE RATON
MESA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING.

SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL DROP DOWN TO ~6000
FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE (LIKELY)
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THIS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT GIVEN THAT TREES ARE
STARTING TO LEAF-OUT...AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE LIMBS TO
BREAK OFF. FOR NOW I HAVE 0.5-1.0" OF LIQUID QPF OVER NEARLY ALL
OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND QUITE A BIT OF THIS MAY BE
SNOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

WITHOUT SAYING...HEAVY WET SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF "LIQUID CEMENT"
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTNS.

TRAVEL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE MTNS THU
NIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE OVER THE S MTNS.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE SNOW THU NIGHT. RELATIVELY WARMER
AIR MAY GET INTO THE VALLEY AND THIS MAY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE VALLEY FLOOR.

FRIDAY...

LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
TRACK...WITH THE EC SHOWING A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WHILE THE GFS MOVES THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND
THIS WOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S PART OF THE FCST
AREA.

IF A NORTHERN TRACK DOES EVOLVE...THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...OVER THE RATON MESA REGION
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
INTO  THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH TRACKS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MTN AND
VALLEY SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.

WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY...

A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND N EL
PASO COUNTY THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT
DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE PROJECTED QPF
AND TEMPS...IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY (BOTH IS DEPTH AND WEIGHT).

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS THU NITE INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL QPF
PREDICTED BY HPC DURING THE NEXT ~7 DAYS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5" TO 4.0". THE HEAVIEST WILL BE ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.

MORE STEADY RAIN AND SNOW COULD OCCUR SUN NITE INTO MONDAY.

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND VERY COOL WEATHER WILL BE WITH US DURING THIS
ENTIRE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR NEARLY
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTDVD OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARDS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP IFR TO LIFR STRATUS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL 10Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COME INTO THE VC OF KCOS AND
KALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT


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