Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220210
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
710 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

...SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY
DIGS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AT THIS TIME. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST H7 WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUPPORTING ECHOES
DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
SW MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR KIOWA COUNTY AND WILL KEEP REST OF WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN TACT THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. CURRENT WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...SAVE BACA COUNTY
WHICH HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH SNOW FALL THROUGH THE DAY THUS FAR.
HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...THOUGH HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED TOTALS FOR BACA
COUNTY.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WITH DRIER
AIR WITHIN MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...WITH SNOW TO
MELT...WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AREA WIDE
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

...QUIET WEATHER AHEAD...

AFTER THE CURRENT STORM...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.  THE MODELS DO SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE
NO MOISTURE.  THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF LAKE COUNTY AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES OVER
THE REGION.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.  ON MONDAY...THE FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY...PUSHING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BE NEAR 60 DEGREES
AGAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DIFFERENT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL YOU BELIEVE.  IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS...A WARM UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING UP FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A ROUND OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.  IF YOU BELIEVE THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...THIS SAME UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF
COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.  A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO CALL NOW.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THINGS TREND IN THE MODELS AND RESOLVE LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS...AS THE
FOCUS OF SNOWFALL SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.
MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
DAYBREAK.

SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE SOME
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS AT ALS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH VFR OR LOCAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFT 12Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-076>078-083>086-089-093-097-098.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ074-075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ065>073.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ081-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW


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