Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210512
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

High level moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Paine
moving across Colorado this afternoon, though impact on local
weather has been minimal, as precip remains well west and temps have
pushed into the 80s/90s at lower elevations despite extensive cloud
cover. Overnight, air mass gradually saturates along the Continental
Divide as deeper moisture pushes northward from AZ/NM, and expect
showers to break out by late evening over the higher peaks, with
fairly widespread activity over the San Juans after midnight into
early Wed morning. Remainder of the mountains and interior valleys
will see mainly isolated showers, with perhaps a few sprinkles
spilling into the I-25 corridor toward sunrise Wed. Have seen very
minimal lightning so far today with incoming moisture over AZ/UT/NM,
so will drop thunderstorm wording overnight and just mention
showers. Plentiful cloud cover all areas should keep min temps
rather mild, with 50s/60s lower elevations, mainly 40s mountains and
high valleys.

On Wed, sw flow continues across the state as deep upper low moves
onshore across the Pacific NW. Mid and upper levels remain fairly
moist across the area while surface/low level dewpoints gradually
creep upward through the day. Should be enough instability for
isolated/scattered thunderstorms over the mountains, with best
chances again back toward the Continental Divide where moisture is
deeper. Eastern mountains and plains look less favored for precip
with lee surface trough keeping swly downslope winds going through
much of the day. Models hint at perhaps some convection developing
along the NM border by midday, spreading eastward toward the KS
border in the afternoon as low level flow become more sly and
produces some weak moisture convergence ahead of the lee trough.
Will keep some low pops in place for these areas, while COS/PUB
likely miss out on most precip as downslope flow dominates. Clouds
may hold back temps just a degf or two, though some low 90s still
look possible over the lower Arkansas Valley, while remainder of the
area sees only minor cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

...Windy and Unsettled Weather to develop across the area...

Wednesday night-Friday night...Models remain in fairly good
agreement through the end of the work week, with some moisture
associated with old tropical system Paine skirting across southern
portions of the area leading to a few possible showers and storms
across the area Wednesday evening.

Southwest flow aloft progged to increase across the region Thursday
with strong south to southwest flow aloft across the state on Friday,
as a deep upper low carves out across the Great Basin on Thursday,
and is progged to slowly weaken as is lifts out across northwestern
Colorado through the day Friday. Moisture embedded within the flow
aloft combined with increasing orographic flow to bring good chances
of rain and snow to the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd,
especially the eastern San Juan and La Garita ranges. Models differ
on amount of cold air associated with the system, though with
cooling associated with UVV, could see several inches of snow for
Wolf Creek pass Thursday night.  Moderate south to southwest winds to
mix down across the lower elevations Thursday afternoon, helping to
boost highs to above seasonal levels across the eastern plains, and
could lead to localized critical fire weather conditions through the
afternoon.

Friday continues to look like a windy day across the area, with
a strong jet core translating across the state. Sustained winds of 20
to 30 mph with stronger gusts remain in the forecast, and could
lead to critical fire weather conditions across the plains.
However, latest models are keeping RHs above 15 percent, with the
gusty southerly low level winds keeping dew pts up, especially the
far southeast plains. Latest models also continue to indicate enough
moisture and lift to support a line of strong storms developing
across the far eastern plains during the late afternoon and evening.
Storm intensity will be dependent on how unstable the atmosphere can
get, though there will be enough shear to support severe weather.
Friday looks to be the last warm day across the eastern plains,
as colder air aloft moves across the area.

Saturday-Tuesday...Models continue to indicate energy hanging
back across the Rockies through the weekend, with cool upslope flow
keeping temps generally at or below seasonal levels. Models differ
on strength and location of this energy, with the operational run
of the GFS now stronger and similar to yesterdays run of the
ECMWF with developing a cut off low across the four corners and
slowly sliding it south of the area into early next week. The latest
EC is not as strong and is further south with the system, with GFS
ensemble somewhere in between. At any rate, cool north to northeast
mid level flow supports best chances of precipitation along the
eastern slopes of the southern mountains, with some snow still
possible across the higher terrain of Wet and Sangre de Cristo
mountains Saturday night and Sunday. Time will tell how this
system will evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions expected across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. High level clouds will lower overnight, with mt passes along
the CONTDVD becoming obscured as -shra develop. Convection will
mainly be tied to the higher terrain through tomorrow, though a
few light showers will be possible for KCOS and KALS in the aftn.
Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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