Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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481
FXUS65 KPUB 140542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1042 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Quiet weather will continue in the short term with another
unseasonably warm day for Tuesday.  Temperatures will top out
similar to those of today which is well above climatological values.
The flow aloft will start to increase on Tuesday as a shortwave
moves across the northern U.S. Rockies.  This will lead to some
spotty critical to near critical fire weather conditions across
portions of zone 222.  However, due to recent snowfall, fuels in
this area are not deemed critical at this time, so no fire weather
highlights are anticipated at this point.  Elsewhere, wind gusts do
not appear to be strong enough to meet critical fire weather
thresholds though could come close for an hour or two during the
afternoon in and near the mountains.

A dry cold front will move in from the northwest bringing a
northerly wind shift to the northern parts of the area during the
late afternoon. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 342 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Primary longer term meteorological concerns are temperatures,
gusty winds/localized elevated fire weather concerns at times
and increased precipitation chances(generally favoring higher
terrain western locations) from Thursday afternoon into Friday
evening.

Recent computer simulations, PV/Precipitable Water analysis and
forecast model soundings suggest that dry upper zonal flow will
prevail over the forecast district from Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. A dry northerly surface surge is also expected
to move across eastern portions Tuesday evening. In addition,
eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing is expected to develop
Thursday.

For sensible weather, anticipate dry conditions over the forecast
district from Tuesday evening into Thursday morning with warmest
temperatures expected Thursday. Also, increased winds are also
projected from Wednesday evening into Friday night, with the
highest potential of strongest winds anticipated from Thursday
into Friday. The highest potential for localized elevated fire
weather issues should be experienced Thursday afternoon and to a
lesser degree Saturday afternoon.

In addition, it appears that the highest potential for increased
precipitation chances(generally favoring higher terrain western
locations) should be experienced from Thursday afternoon into
Friday evening as an upper disturbance impacts the CWA and have
depicted this in recent zones/grids.

Then a return to basically dry and continued above seasonal
mid-November temperatures should be noted from Saturday into
at least Monday morning as transitory upper ridging graces
southern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24
hrs. Breezy westerly winds are expected Tue afternoon at the
terminal forecast sites. A front moving thru sern CO Tue evening
will bring northwest to north winds to KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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