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000
FXUS65 KPUB 020137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMS. HEADLINES LOOK
ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT CPW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON NIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE