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000
FXUS65 KPUB 271655
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
955 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER CHANGES AND WIND CHANGES FOR TODAY...AND
UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH AGAIN TODAY...

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MAY
TRICKLE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THE STORY IS NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS DATE.  UPPER DISTURBANCE
COMING UP FROM BAJA IS COMING UP TOO FAR WEST OF COLORADO TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT.  IT MAY DO A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF MONARCH PASS LATER TONIGHT AS
IT TAKES A TURN EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...WE`RE STILL ONLY LOOKING AT SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH...SO NO BIG DEAL.

THE BIGGER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH. HIGHS ALL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS.  THE
PRIMARY DRIVERS FOR THE WARMTH WILL BE A BIG...WARM RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS COLORADO AND WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES OFF
THE MOUNTAINS.  THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 30S
AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  ALL OF THESE READINGS ARE NOT TOO BAD
CONSIDERING WE ARE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST TIME OF THE
YEAR FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.  HERE ARE SOME FORECAST HIGHS AND
RECORDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR TODAY...

LOCATION...........FORECAST HIGH.....RECORD HIGH
LEADVILLE..........46................48 IN 1993
BUENA VISTA........55................59 IN 1935
ALAMOSA............50................55 IN 1970
COLORADO SPRINGS...66................67 IN 1970
CANON CITY.........70................70 IN 1920
PUEBLO.............72................73 IN 2003
WALSENBURG.........67................66 IN 1986
TRINIDAD...........64................71 IN 2003
LA JUNTA...........73................75 IN 1970
LAMAR..............74................75 IN 1970
SPRINGFIELD........74................72 IN 2008

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS MT AND WY
WED MORNING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL MTS AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WED AFTN ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR
THE E PLAINS...AND INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES EAST...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN EASTERN
CO LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT LATE WED NIGHT USHERS IN
MUCH COOLER AIR...AND AS THE SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM A N TO MORE NE TO
E DIRECTION...THIS COOLER AIR GETS REINFORCED AND PUSHED WEST UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4
CORNER REGION INTO COLORADO BY LATE THU MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS AZ ON FRI...AND NM ON SAT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE ON TAP FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THU...AND THEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH FRI AND SAT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY...MARKING
THE END OF MUCH OF THE PCPN. MAX TEMPS ALL 3 DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE TO TRENDED
DOWNWARD EITHER FRI OR SAT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE EC SWEEPING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD IN TURN
LOWER POTENTIAL QPF. HOWEVER...TIMING IS VERY SIMILAR. SO...FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS AND WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD DAY AS PCPN
TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUDS DECREASE UNDER NW FLOW.
ANY BREAK IN THE PCPN IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND BRINGS INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL MTS FOR MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...AND MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA...FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING
AREAS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FLIGHT AREA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW