Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271753
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1053 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

...DO NOT BURN TODAY!!...

...VERY WINDY EVERYWHERE WITH WIND DRIVEN SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...

Currently...

An intense short wave was located along the Colorado/Utah border
this morning. A line of showers with embedded lightning was
occurring on the western slope at 3 am. Radar and observations were
indicating snow across the higher elevations, with considerable
virga over the plains. Skies were cloudy to mostly cloudy across the
entire CWA.

Temps varied considerably across the region. Across the plains,
south of US 50 temps were in the 40s and 50s while along and north
of US 50 temperatures were generally in the 30s. In the mtns and
valleys temps were in the 20s and 30s.

This morning...

The strong short wave will move across the region. This feature will
bring heavy snow to the southwest mountains early this morning. It
will also bring a rain/snow mix to the San Luis Valley (SLV) and
accumulating snow to the southern Sangre De Cristo range. In
addition...a band of showers will occur across the plains later
this morning, especially south of a line from roughly Trinidad to
Lamar. Any precip that falls in this area should end by noon time.

It will be windy in the mountains this morning, especially south of
US-50. At lower elevations, the winds will gradually pick up,
especially south of US-50.

This Afternoon...

It will become windy everywhere, with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to 50 mph. RH values will be near critical values,
especially across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak area.
Although I do not expect RED FLAG conditions to be widespread today
(due to RH remaining above 15% most areas), burning is STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED today as any grass fire will spread very rapidly.

Max temps today will be cooler than yesterday by a few degrees most
places at the lower elevations. Expect highs on in the upper 40s
across El Paso county...50s along the I-25 corridor and about 60
over the far eastern plains. 30s are expected in the SLV, with 20s
in the mountains.

Little if any precip is anticipated on the plains this afternoon.

Snow in the mountains along the contdvd will decrease this afternoon
as dynamic forcing wanes considerably, but favorable upslope flow
will allow for steady snow to continue, especially on western
slopes. Snow showers will be possible across the remainder of the
mountains with only light accums expected.

Tonight...

Winds will decrease across the lower elevations, but it will remain
breezy tonight across the plains. The main concern will be a
somewhat favorable mountain wave setup developing, so expect strong
gusty winds to continue along and on the east slopes of the
mountains, especially the Pikes Peak/Rampart range and the Sangre De
Cristos and Wet mtns.

As flow shifts to a more west northwesterly component, the central
mountains will be favored for continued snowfall. At this time,
highlights for the central mountain end at midnight tonight, but
may need to be extended into Monday, as another weather system
begins to affect the central mountain region. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Colder and unsettled from time to time this week.

Monday and Monday night,
Main trough axis will be east of CWA, but a shortwave, moving
through the back side of the longwave trough will provide some
more lift for some enhancement of snow, mainly along the
Continental Divide later in the afternoon and into the evening.
Even after that energy passes, orographic snow will continue,
mainly across the eastern Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges. High
temperatures will be a mildest of the work week across the plains
and I-25 corridor with mid 40s to mid 50s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night,
Colder air will move into the area, to initiate the high
temperature take down. Highs will only reach into the 30s to mid
40s across the plains, with teens to 30s across the mountains and
high valleys. The best chance for snow will again be across the
Continental Divide, but with the cold advection push, some light
snow could also occur across the eastern mountains and adjacent
high valleys and I-25 corridor.

Wednesday and Thursday,
As the longwave trough to our east moves farther east, and a
digging trough across the Great Basin evolves, the mid and upper
flow across the Rockies will become more west to east, and a
period of drier weather will occur. Although, the temperatures are
not expected to moderate much, if at all from Tuesdays values.

Thursday night through Saturday,
The GFS and European models are showing the Great Basin trough
evolving in a similar manner. A closed low developed and dives
into the Baja, but there will be some lift and upslope flow and
moisture across the area, so periods of light snow are possible
from Thursday night through Saturday. It will certainly be cold,
but the two models differ on the amount of precipitation, with the
European being less gung ho. They do show the focus for heavy
rain/snow being in New Mexico, though. Stay tuned. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Winds in excess of 40 mph at times are anticipated at the
KALS, KCOS and KPUB TAF sites into this afternoon, otherwise VFR
conditions should be noted over the area TAF sites during the next
24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ058>061-066-067.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ068.

&&

$$



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