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000
FXUS65 KPUB 111106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT GRACED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
GENERALLY LOW-GRADE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD EARLY MORNING
MID-APRIL TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY DRY METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 10F
TO 15F DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS WHILE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RUN SOME 6F TO 13F HIGHER THAN
MID APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.  IN ADDITION...PRIMARILY LOW-
GRADE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH BASICALLY LOW-GRADE WINDS SHOULD BE
NOTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SATURDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A MILD TO WARM DAY ON
TAP WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S
HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH VALLEYS
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BRING IN MORE MOIST AIR...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...FORECAST WINDS ARE BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH GFS AND NAM12 FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPCOMING TROUGH. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
DAWN...REACHING THE PALMER DIVIDE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EARLIER ETA. SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES.

SUNDAY...THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT. RAISED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FLIP OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE RECENT WARMTH...THE IMPACT ON WARMER SURFACES...SUCH AS
ROADS...WITH PROBABLY NOT BE AS BAD AS IN THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...AND SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE
MOST HEAVY HANDED WITH THE SNOW. AS ALWAYS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT THE USUAL PLACES ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THE SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE WATCHES AND
ADVISORIES / WARNINGS.

MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO KANSAS. MID LEVELS TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE QUITE CHILLY...SO TOOK DOWN HIGHS QUITE A BIT FOR
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE POPS UP OVER THE ROCKIES...AND WARMER AND
QUITE WEATHER PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
TO NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT WE DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...50S HIGH VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
-TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT
506 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77