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000
FXUS65 KPUB 171803
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1203 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Early morning convection just about out of the area as of 10z, and
will carry a dry forecast for the morning as any precip should be
east into KS by sunrise. Water vapor imagery suggests upper
circulation, which has brought thunderstorms to the eastern plains
the past several days, was finally shifting eastward into KS, with
subsidence behind this feature leading to a mainly dry and hotter
day for the plains east of I-25. Over the mountains, rather modest
monsoon plume remains in place, so expect usual isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening tsra over mainly the higher terrain,
though coverage and storm intensity should be on a downward
trajectory versus yesterday. NAM and HRRR suggest some isolated weak
storms may drift into the I-25 corridor in the late afternoon/early
evening, especially across El Paso county, though coverage/strength
will be rather sparse/weak here as well. Max temps will begin to
climb back to rather warm readings at most locations as mid level
heights/temps rise and moisture thins out, with readings at or
slightly above seasonal averages by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

No big changes to the current extended forecast package, as models
continue to indicate upper level high pressure building east across
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This allows for the monsoonal
moisture plume to be shunted south and west of the area with some
drier air working into the region. Warm air and subsidence under
the high will lead to lesser chances of convection over the
southeast plains, with enough residual moisture across the western
half of the area, to work with strong solar heating to support
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms. Weak
flow aloft will allow for the storms to move slowly, bringing the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, and the possibility of flash
flooding, mainly across area burn scars. Warm air aloft will
allow surface temperatures to warm to at and above seasonal
averages, though latest GFS MOS may be a tad too warm across the
eastern plains.

For Thursday through Saturday, the upper high repositions across the
southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley, which will allow for
increasing monsoonal moisture within developing southwesterly flow
aloft. With that said, should see increasing chances and coverage of
afternoon and evening storms into the upcoming weekend. Lastest
models also indicate a possible front sliding across the eastern
plains on Saturday, leading to increasing low level moisture and the
potential for stronger storms across the eastern plains. There looks
to be a the daily risk of flash flooding through this period,
especially across urban areas and burn scars, with temperatures
cooling back to at or slightly below seasonal levels through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The summer monsoon will bring another round of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms to the flight area. The mountains will
likely see the greatest coverage of storms with activity more
isolated east of the mountains. Primary storm risks will include
lightning, gusty winds, locally heavy rain and spots of hail up to
a nickel size. Flight conditions will deteriorate to MVFR, IFR and
LIFR through areas of precipitation.

Both the KCOS and KALS sites will see a chance of thunderstorms
at or near the terminals starting around 22Z. KPUB will probably
remain east of the activity although a storm is not out of the
question. Additionally, KPUB will still be close enough to the
storms to be impacted by lightning and gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW