Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300523
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 50 PER RADAR AND SATELLITE. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...SOUTH OF PUEBLO...FOR THIS EVENING...PER RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT
END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER WAVE...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND PV
CHARTS...LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. CAPES ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
RUNNING IN THE 500- 1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE MAX 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS LIES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. LATEST SEVERE WATCH FROM
SPC DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AS BEST SHEAR/CAPE STAY FAIRLY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. STILL PROBABLY ENOUGH CAPE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL REPORT OR TWO WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
VOLUMINOUS SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...CELLS ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER HAVE ALREADY PUSHED A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS OF
21Z...AND WOULD EXPECT EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
IS AIDED BY ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. IN FACT PRECIP COULD LINGER PAST
SUNSET IN THESE AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING IN NM BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING MOST MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS...CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING -SHRA ALONG THE NM BORDER EARLY SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA QUICKLY AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NM/TX. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LATEST 4KM NAM SHOWS VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
VARIOUS OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS...ARE A LITTLE MORE
PLENTIFUL WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EVEN TAKING A COUPLE TSRA INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SUSPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALIGN MORE
WITH THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS....SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED
RANGE OVER MOST MOUNTAINS...JUST ISOLATED FOR THE I-25 AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY ONE MORE DAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE 70S FOUND
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TAME COMPARED TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF MAY.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVE. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD GET INTO THE 80S...AND MAY EVEN
BUST THE STRING OF SUB-84 DEGREE DAYS AT KPUB.

MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH CO OVER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD STAY AT SUB-SEVERE LEVELS.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER
THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...SW FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
WILL DRY US OUT AND KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE. COULD SEE SOME AREAS
APPROACH 90 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO 90 AT KLHX AND KLAA. HOWEVER...WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE
THAT THEY PLAINS HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH. STORMS WILL REMAIN DIURNAL
AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE DRY SW
FLOW...EVEN THE MTS MAY SEE NO STORMS ON TUESDAY.

BY THU AND BEYOND...GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAS THE
JET MOVING INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER N
WITH THE JET. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WX TO THE PLAINS AND HIGHER POPS IN GENERAL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK TO THE ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECAST
GRIDS...WHICH MAINTAIN SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER WITH LOW POPS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BACK EDGE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY AT THIS TIME. DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FINALLY EXIT
COLORADO 12-15Z. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ALSO...DEVELOPING LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST AIR FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...MAY YIELD AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY
UP NEXT TO THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS VFR ALL AREAS BY 15-18Z
SATURDAY...AS ANY STRATUS DISSIPATES. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY AFTER
20Z...BUT STORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR KCOS TAF SITE...PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER FOR THE NIGHT BUT A
LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP 08-10Z...PERHAPS LASTING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS INTERACT WITH MOIST
SURFACE AIR FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. FOR KPUB...SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY REMAINS SCATTERED. FOR KALS...VFR
EXPECTED. FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT VCTS AFTER 20-22Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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