Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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