Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251730
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

...SNOW RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
TO THE REGION.  A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE WITH
ITS ASSOC JET IS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN CO ATTM. THIS ONE IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CO...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SECONDARY...STRONGER WAVE IS ALREADY UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST CO BY 00Z.  THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING A HEAVIER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST MTS/ADJACENT
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS START BREAKING OUT SNOW ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AROUND 3 PM...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD THE SNOW SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25
CORRIDOR BY 4 TO 6 PM AS A COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHWARD SPREADING
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THERE A COUPLE
OF PARAMETERS THAT LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...FIRST...LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COULD
PUT DOWN A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.  SECOND...MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE DEEPLY SATURATED THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
AND NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY HEALTHY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS...THOUGH GFS LOOKS A LITTLE LIGHTER.
SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND THE SHORT DURATION OF
UPPER LIFT AS THE SYSTEM DROPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT OFTEN
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END MORE QUICKLY THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND THIS TENDS TO LIMIT SNOWFALL.
NAM12 LOOKS RATHER BULLISH WITH SOME OF THE MAXIMUM SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT (UP TO 16 INCHES).  SUSPECT THAT NAM IS OVERDOING
THESE SNOW TOTALS...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE. IN
COMPARING THE 4KM WITH THE 12 KM NAM...THE 4KM NAM IS LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
MEANWHILE GFS KEEPS SNOW TOTALS DOWN IN THE 10 INCH MAXIMUM RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  GIVEN ALL THIS...GRIDS WON`T GO AS HEAVY HANDED AS
THE NAM12.  BUT WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
SNOW...THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF AT LEAST SOME MODERATE SNOW...IT DOESN`T
TAKE MUCH FOR SNOW TOTALS TO RACK UP OVER THE 2 DAY EVENT (SEE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW).  THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCHES TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL TAKE PIKES PEAK AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO
ADVISORIES FOR NOW AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS...(NMM AND ARW)...KEEP
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MORE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER NAM12 TOTALS IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE TELLER TO A WARNING YET.  HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY UP THAT WAY.

THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE A ROUND OF SNOW
FROM THIS...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FAIRING OKAY WITH THE AID OF
NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW.  ONLY GETTING AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 4 FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DOESN`T APPEAR TO
TURN EASTERLY FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW FOR
THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER OF FREMONT COUNTY AND CENTRAL CHAFFEE
COUNTY.  SNOW TOTALS FOR THAT REGION STAY MORE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE.  AND FINALLY...THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES.  HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT AND SNOW
EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...AND CANON CITY AREAS.  LATER SHIFTS
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
TOTALS AND HEADLINES.  THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS TODAY NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR THE RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IMPACTS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LATEST PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND COOL
METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
MOIST AIR DRIVEN BY 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO ILLINOIS BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER MANY LOCATIONS(ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS) INTO LATE WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A DECREASE/BREAK IN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MANY
LOCATIONS AT TIMES THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW RAMPS UP AGAIN FROM LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WELL AS BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAINS(ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS)
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT...AT THIS TIME...WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD THEN IMPACT
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM NEXT TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MANY LOCATIONS.

BELOW SEASONAL LATE FEBRUARY TO EARLY MARCH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHERE
MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS. AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY LINGER IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL
BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS BEHIND IT.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWERED CIGS AND
VIS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE 01-03Z TIME
PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY 21Z WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL NOW BY 02Z. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-04Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY



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