Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1212 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 1212 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Updated pops across the Pikes Peak region with light snow continuing
through the afternoon. Accumulations of a couple inches remain
possible across the higher terrain west of I-25, with an inch or
less likely east of the corridor.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Currently...cold and quiet across southern Colorado early this
morning.  Temperatures have dropped into the teens for most
locations with a couple more degrees of cooling before sunrise
possible.  Observations indicate light snow moving into the Central
Mountains, while dry conditions prevail across the rest of Colorado.

Today...not much change to the forecast thinking with good model
agreement.  An upper disturbance over southern Idaho is forecast to
drop south into Arizona and combine with an upper low.  Meanwhile,
an upper disturbance embedded in increasing southwest flow will move
north into Colorado by this afternoon and evening.  Expect light
snow to increase over the mountains this morning and spread east
into the I-25 corridor for this afternoon.  Lack of moisture and
lift should keep snow light, with 1 to 3 inches expected over the
mountains through this afternoon.  Up to an inch may be possible
along and west of I-25, while no accumulations are expected further
east.  Temperatures will be cold today with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the plains under cloudy skies.

Tonight...the upper low over Arizona will continue to drop south
into northern Mexico, while the disturbance in the southwest flow
out of New Mexico lifts across our far southeastern Plains into
western Kansas.  Snow will dissipate over the mountains overnight as
drier air moves into Colorado.  Light snow will remain possible
through the early morning hours over the far southeastern Plains as
the disturbance lifts to the east.  A half inch of snow may be
possible over eastern Las Animas and Baca Counties late tonight as
the disturbances passes.  Elsewhere, any snow left along the I-25
corridor should dissipate around midnight.  Temperatures will be
cold tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

...Cold with Snow Chances Early to Middle Part of Next Week...

After another chilly day Saturday, temperatures will warm to near
average on Sunday and then to above average on Monday. Save for
some possible lingering snow showers across the far southeast
Colorado plains Saturday, it should be dry across the area
through most of the weekend.

Sunday night, the first signs of the next system to move through
Colorado will begin to show up in the form of a few snow showers
developing over the central mountains.  On Monday, those showers
will likely increase along the Continental Divide and spread
southward a bit, with the rest of the area remaining mostly dry.

Monday night and Tuesday, the forecast gets tricky.  Model
consensus of late has indicated that a strong cold front would
drop south through the plains as a strong upper jet strengthened
over the region. This would then bring a shot of snow and very
cold temps to the region Tuesday into Wednesday, favoring the
eastern mountains and plains. However, the 06Z run of the GFS has
pretty much pulled the plug on this idea, keeping the system
weaker, quicker and farther north of the area, essentially voiding
southern Colorado of snow and most of the cold air.

Whether the 06Z run is valid or not is the big question. Since the
bulk of the models still show the snowier, colder solution and the
06Z run of the GFS can sometimes be an outlier, not ready to throw
in the towel on this system yet. Would like to see a few more
model runs before calling it. It could return in the very next
run. So, for now, will stay the course and expect a wintry blast
of light snow and cold to spread into the area Monday night and
Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday, before conditions dry out and
start to warm again on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

An upper level disturbance will bring snow to the terminals this
afternoon and evening.  CIGS and VIS will reduce during periods of
snow to MVFR to IFR at all three terminals in roughly the 19-02z
time period.  Minor snow accumulations to an inch will be possible
on area runways. Low stratus and possibly fog will likely persist
into the evening, especially at ALS and COS, before clearing later
tonight into Saturday morning.




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