Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111722
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1022 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Currently...observations from around the region and radar imagery
indicate there are still areas of light snowfall over the mountain
areas, especially the Southern Sangre de Cristo range.  There are
also a few light radar returns out near the Kansas border, which
have bee slowly shifting east early this morning.  North winds are
still breezy across the region with cold air filtering south across
the Plains.  Temperatures have fallen into the 20s for most
locations across the Plains, but with the wind feels much colder.

Today...the upper level storm system currently over northeast New
Mexico will continue to lift into Kansas through this afternoon.
Northwest flow will set up aloft across Colorado and will persist
into tonight.  As far as precipitation is concerned, expect most
light snowfall to dissipate through the morning hours over the
mountains.  The exception will be the Central Mountains where
favorable orographic flow will keep light snow falling through the
day with only minor accumulations expected.  Any light precipitation
near the Kansas border this morning will shift east this morning,
with dry and breezy conditions across the Plains.  Temperatures will
be slow to warm with the north flow in the low levels with highs in
the 30s and 40s.

Tonight...an upper disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft
will move southeast out of Montana into northern Colorado.  This
will bring an increase to snow showers over the Central Mountains
overnight.  Snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible by Friday morning.  Expect dry and cold
conditions across the Plains tonight with lows generally in the 20s.
Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

A quick moving shortwave in northwest flow aloft moves across CO
Friday morning.  This will keep some snow showers going across the
Central mountains through the morning.  Snow will decrease in the
afternoon as forcing moves off to the southeast, though sufficient
orographics will remain in place for some persistent isolated to
scattered light snow showers through the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
cold front will move through the plains. In spite of this,
temperatures will be warmer due to better mixing from breezy north
winds. As the surface high shifts southward through the central
plains, colder air will backdoor into southeast CO overnight and
models are indicating the possibility of shallow stratus across
the lower Arkansas river valley towards Saturday morning. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far west clouds will get, and
will keep the clouds out of KPUB and KCOS for now, however if the
push ends up stronger, then its possible clouds may need to be
expanded farther west than current grids indicate.

Saturday will be cooler for all areas, but particularly across
eastern CO were cold air will remain entrenched across the plains.
Western U.S. upper ridge will shift eastward and cold air across the
plains will drain eastward as lee trough develops across the
southeast plains.  Should see a nice rebound in temperatures this
day with readings back in the 50s.  Next upper trof drops south out
of Canada into the Upper Mid West/Great Lakes Region on Monday and
this sends another sharper cold front through the plains and into
eastern CO Sunday night and Monday.  Models still differ on how far
west this cold air will plunge.  GFS is warmer across eastern CO
than EC.  Have opted to split the difference for now.  Could be some
light snow/flurries/fog across the plains Monday morning depending
on the depth of the cold air and potential for saturation.  Grids
will carry some silent pops for now until details become more
certain.

Tuesday will be dry and cool...then warmer temperatures will return
for the mid to latter part of the week as more energy tries to move
into the western U.S. displacing the upper ridge eastward.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 938 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Southern Colorado is under a weak ridge of high pressure as the
next trough and cold front passage approaches. For KALS, fog is a
possibility since there was precipitation in the region
yesterday, and light winds and clear skies are forecast for
tonight. If the fog forms, expect IFR conditions, with LIFR
conditions at times. KCOS and KPUB will experience diurnal flow,
but a cold front is expected to pass in the early afternoon,
tomorrow. After the front passes, gusty northerly winds are
expected. VFR conditions are expected for KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SKELLY



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