Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

In the wake of a cold front that moved thru the southeast plains
last evening, low level upslope winds and a cloud layer have
developed.  These clouds are expected to hang around until mid to
late morning.  Temps today acrs the southeast plains will be much
cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower
80s, but a little cooler over northern El Paso county where highs
will be in the lower to mid 70s.  The upper Arkansas River valley
and the San Luis Valley will still be warm today, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. With a cooler and more stable air mass over the
southeast plains, the weather is expected to be dry.  There may be
enough instability and moisture over the eastern and southwest mtns
and over southern portions of the San Luis Valley for a few
shower/tstms to develop this afternoon and evening, as shown in the
GFS and RAP, so will keep some isold POPs in the forecast for these

If any pcpn does develop, it should end by late evening with all
areas then being dry overnight.  Overnight low temps are expected to
be a little above average.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Models have come in more amplified for the later half of the
extended forecast period compared to last night. This would bring
better chances for precipitation across the region Friday into

Monday...high pressure over the Desert Southwest will begin to
build northward on Monday. This will start our warm up across the
region that will persist into mid week. Low level southeasterly
flow should keep southern Colorado on the cooler side with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday afternoon. Models continue to
be fairly dry with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over
the San Juan and Southern Sangre de Cristo mountain ranges during
the afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday through Thursday...high pressure will dominate the Desert
Southwest with broad westerly flow across Southern Colorado. This
will help temperatures warm up into the mid 90s to lower 100s for
much of the region each afternoon. There will likely be low
chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the
mountains each afternoon and evening. Any eastward movement into
the Plains will depend on embedded energy working across the
region. Once the sun goes down, any showers or thunderstorms that
have developed should dissipate. Main threats from thunderstorms
will be lightning and gusty winds due to the high cloud base

Friday and Saturday...models are a bit more amplified with a
trough digging south out of the northern Rockies into the Central
Plains by this weekend. This will send a cold front south on
Friday with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the area by Friday afternoon. Low level easterly upslope flow will
persist into Saturday with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, with 70s and 80s for
highs. It should be noted that the GFS is cooler, with perhaps mid
60s to mid 70s on Saturday. There has been run to run model
inconsistency, so confidence is limited in the Friday and Saturday
time frame in regards to temperatures and precipitation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR all TAF sites.
Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon at KPUB and KCOS
with high pressure to the east. A cold front will pass through
KCOS and KPUB with a northerly wind shift around 09Z. Airmass is
dry and stable with little if any convection. --PGW--




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