Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180945
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 AM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

An upr level low wl be moving eastward acrs srn AZ today, then
weakening overnight as the upr trof moves east acrs NM and CO.
this morning some light showers are occurring ovr and nr the mtns,
which should continue thru the morning hours but wl likely increase
in coverage late in the morning.  This afternoon and evening wl be
much the same with little if any chance for pcpn acrs the far sern
plains, and sct to numerous showers and isold tstms ovr the mtns and
high valleys.  the high elevations wl see additional snow
accumulations today.  afternoon convection could lead to some quick
accumulations of a few inches in some locations.  wl leave the
winter weather advisories in effect for the sw mtns and Sangre De
Cristo mtns.  temps wl again be cool with highs in the 50s to lower
60s at the lower elevations, which is about 10-15 degree below
average.

Later tonight it looks like pcpn chances should decrease some
over the mtns and high valleys. while the upr trof moves acrs the
area the nam is showing the possibility of some light rain moving
into the far sern portions of the state.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

...Warming into the Weekend...

Thursday and Thursday night...Latest models continue to indicate a
broad upper trough lifting out across the region through the day
Thursday, through differ on location of a vort max associated with
the weakening upper low. At any rate, could see a few showers or
storms across the far southeast Plains early Thursday morning
associated with said disturbance. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms can be expected across the area in the afternoon and evening
hours, with best coverage over and near the higher terrain.
Warming aloft behind the passing trough to allow for temperatures
to warm on Thursday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s across the
lower elevations and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region behind
Thursday`s passing system. Southwest flow aloft slowly increases
on Saturday ahead of the next system digging across the West Coast
and into the Great Basin. Enough residual moisture will be in place
to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms across the area both days, with a possible dry line developing
across the far southeast plains on Saturday, depending on how quickly
the southwest flow aloft gets established. Warming aloft continues
across the area with temperatures warming back to at and above
seasonal levels through the period.

Sunday-Tuesday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft progged
across the region as the West Coast system moves into the Great
Basin on Sunday, and lifts out across the northern Rockies on Monday.
Pattern keeps the area warm and breezy, with isolated to scattered
higher based storms possible over and near the higher terrain, with a
few stronger storms possible with the dry line somewhere near the
Kansas border. Should see temperatures remaining AOA seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

KCOS should continue to see low stratus with IFR or MVFR cigs thru
the morning. there should be some improvement in the afternoon hours
at KCOS as forecast soundings show a return to vfr conditions. light
rain wl be possible at kcos thru much of the day and into the
evening.  it is possible that mvfr conditions could return to KCOS
later tonight.  KPUB should generally have VFR conditions today and
tonight, although this morning there could be a period of MVFR cigs.
KALS should generally have VFR conditions today and tonight, but
some light showers in the area this morning could result in MVFR
conditions for a time.  Also, this afternoon there may be some
showers or tstms in the vcnty of KALS which could briefly cause
reduced cigs/vsby.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ066-
068-073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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