Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 160527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
AND AMOUNT OF IMPACT NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

THE CWFA CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE MID-
OCTOBER TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS NEARING 30 MPH AT TIMES...PRIMARILY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OVER SECTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

LATEST NEAR/REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY ZONAL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AS A NORTHERLY
SURGE PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO A WEAK RIDGE BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FCST AREA. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEAK A MORE BROAD FAST MOVING
TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DRY AND THE COOLEST DAY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-70F RANGE PLAINS AND 60S VALLEYS. FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TO THE S TIER
OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ATTM WILL BE SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70-75F RANGE PLAINS...WITH
60S VALLEYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY DRY. WE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS BUT OVERALL EXPECT IT TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE
M60S/L70S PLAINS...60S VALLEYS WITH TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 70S
ON THE PLAINS...60S VALLEYS FOR TUESDAY.

BY MID WEEK...A BIT STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...28



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