Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL
AS VARIABLE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.  AT 2PM MDT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE PERCOLATING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.  IN
ADDITION...MAJORITY OF WIND GUSTS WERE BASICALLY REMAINING UNDER 25
MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 04Z FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM LATE SEPTEMBER DAY ON TAP OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
ANTICIPATED...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN
1/2 OF THE CWFA.  FINALLY..LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

...COOLER AND MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...

ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLVING WEATHER
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOR THE MOST PART...UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THEN INTO NEVADA.  SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE EAST AND IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
FORK COMPLEX BURN SCARS. THE REST OF THE CWA IS PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY AND MILD.

SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE DAY ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.  NAM12 INDICATES MOIST SOUTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM NEVADA INTO UTAH. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE AFTERNOON...FLOW IS DIFFLUENT
ALOFT...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO BE 80
TO 90 KTS.  CONCEPTUALLY...THIS WOULD MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
AND A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ON THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCARS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA. LATEST GFS IS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN ACROSS OUR CWA...AND IS INDICATING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. IF THIS SET UP EVOLVES...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE PROBABLE...AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS ARE ABOVE 50
KNOTS...AND THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AND A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOOK PLACE THIS TIME OF YEAR IN OCTOBER OF
1997...WITH FAST-MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. OF
COURSE...THERE ARE MANY MODEL RUNS TO FOLLOW... SO THINGS COULD
CHANGE. MEANTIME...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES PRIMARILY ZONAL.  COOLER
AIR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY...THE COLDER
AIR IN THE EAST FORECAST TO BE FLUSHED OUT...AND DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OCCURS...BEFORE THE NEXT SLUG OF COLDER AIR
DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 258 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL ALL VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM



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