Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 050600
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

...Cold...

Finally, some seasonal December weather. Cold front has brought much
colder air to the region today.  Winds will gradually subside this
evening.  A weak upper level disturbance will drop south across the
forecast area tonight.  The disturbance is pretty dry but it will
bring a reinforcing surge of cold air south across the region.  It
could also produce a few lingering snow showers over the higher
terrain of the central mountains, north of Cottonwood Pass.  Tonight
will likely be the coldest night so far this season for many areas.
Low temperatures will generally be in the teens with even colder
temperatures in the San Luis Valley, around Leadville and possibly
at the Pueblo airport. Alamosa and Leadville could both see lows
close to zero tonight. The Pueblo airport may dip to 8 or 9 degrees.
The coldest temperature so far this season at the airport has bee 17
degrees back on the 19th of November.  If the airport does hit 8 or
9 degrees, that would be about 7 or 8 degrees below average for this
time of year. So, a cold night ahead. Certainly a lot colder than
we`ve been used.

It will remain chilly on Tuesday although with much lighter winds,
it may not seem so cold. Temperatures will be near average for this
time of year.  The plains will see 40s, the high valleys mid 30s to
mid 40s and the mountains will see generally teens and 20s for
highs.  The good news is that there will be plenty of sun and little
wind.  So, all in all, it will be a nice, seasonal, early December
day across southern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

Tuesday night-Friday...A strong northerly flow pattern continues
across the region, with long wave troughing persisting across the
Upper Great Lakes through the High Plains, as high amplitude upper
ridge continues across the West Coast. Models indicate minor waves
and re-enforcing surges of cold air embedded within the flow moving
across the area Wednesday and Thursday, though differ on timing and
western extent of the waves. At any rate, any precipitation with
these waves looks to be over and near the higher terrain, especially
in the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe, with only
light and fluffy accumulations expected. Brisk northerly winds can
be expected through the period over the higher terrain, with gusty
northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph expected across the eastern plains
both Thursday and Friday, as a strong pressure gradient develops
across the region. High temperatures to remain below seasonal levels
in the 30s to lower 40s across the lower elevations and mainly in
the teens and 20s across the higher terrain both Wednesday and
Thursday, with some warming noted into Friday.

Saturday-Monday...Northerly flow aloft continues to weaken as Omega
blocking pattern breaks down and upper level ridging continues to
build into the region. Pattern suggests dry weather with
temperatures warming back to above seasonal levels through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1059 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS, with winds generally under 10 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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