Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141730
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at449 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Currently:  GOES-16 satellite imagery shows some thicker clouds and
light showers moving east across the far southeast plains, and
showers across western Colorado in KGJT`s area moving northeast.
Temperatures were in the 50s and lower 60s across the plains and I-
25 corridor and upper 30s to 40s across the high valleys and
mountains.  Winds were fairly light, except across the high country
in some spots.

Today:  An upper low, currently centered over southern Nevada, will
move into western Utah by late in the day spreading showers and
storms eastward.  Short term models have the showers most prevalent
across the Pikes Peak Region, especially by midafternoon. But
isolated showers and storms could be elsewhere too. By very late
afternoon the lift from the approaching shortwave, will bring the
likelihood of more widespread showers and storms to the southwest
mountains. In fact, the Four Corners area and into the southwest
mountains is outlooked for the possibility of a couple marginally
severe storms. Highs will be above seasonal norms, with mid 80s to
mid 90s across the plains and I-25 corridor, 70s high valleys,
and 50s and 60s mountains.

Tonight:  A pattern change will begin, as the upper ridge is pushed
south and east by the first incoming shortwave.  As the wave moves
northeast tonight, we will see the most lift across Wyoming and
northern Colorado. Showers and storms will be most prevalent across
the high country and western portion of the CWA early, but then
spread through the rest of the area as the night progresses. The
convection should be waning through the overnight hours and toward
dawn most of the activity should push north and east.  Locally heavy
rain will be possible with stronger storms, so our eyes will
especially be on local burn scars for that potential.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Friday continues to look relatively dry across the area with drier
air within the increasing southwest flow aloft advecting into the
area. Models soundings indicating warm and breezy conditions across
the area Friday afternoon, with south to southwest winds of 15 to 25
mph leading to increased fire weather concerns. Latest models
continue to keep best chances of precipitation Friday night and
Saturday north of south central and southeast Colorado, as the the
next upper trough digging across the Great Basin lifts out across
the northern Rockies. At any rate, have kept slight pops across
central mountains, with the passing system sending a weak cold front
across the eastern Plains through early Saturday morning. Could see
a few showers across the area Saturday night and Sunday with
southerly return flow developing behind the passing system.
Temperatures Saturday and Sunday cool to below seasonal levels with
Sunday still looking to be the coolest day of the week.

Models continue to support several more systems digging across the
Great Basin through the early and middle part of next week, though
differ on timing and location of said systems, as well as the
location of remnant Eastern Pacific tropical moisture embedded
within the flow. Latest EC continues to bring a strong storm across
the area on Wednesday, with the GFS keeping the brunt of the system
north of the area once again. For now, blended model guidance keeps
only slight pops across Continental Divide for Wednesday. Time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

KALS...VFR conditions into this afternoon. Expect showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, moving across the San Luis
Valley through 05z this evening. Reduced CIGS and VIS are possible
in precipitation cores that move over the terminal. Once this
activity clears the area, expect VFR conditions late tonight into
Friday morning.

KCOS...VFR conditions through early afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening at the
terminal. Reduced VIS and CIGS along with gusty outflow winds are
possible at the terminal. VFR conditions are expected once
activity clears the area this evening, persisting into Friday
morning.

KPUB...VFR conditions into this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, but
there is less confidence in occurrence at the terminal. Expect
this activity to clear this evening with VFR conditions overnight
into Friday morning.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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