Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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670
FXUS65 KPUB 041743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FCST/GRIDS TO DELAY TIMING OF POPS OVER THE DVD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER UT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT OR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MAIN CHANGE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ERN MTS. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SN
OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGION...BUT QPF AMTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...SO EXPECT ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR
THE MTS AND TRACE TO INCH FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AREAS
IN THE BANANA BELT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ARE
THE WARMEST AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
FIRST...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT TO
SEE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING AT AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVING A HARDER
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.  SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  DID NOT
GO OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW POPS
INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DROPPING SOUTH ALONG I-25...AND
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW PACK WILL BE
COLDEST AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.  DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK.  AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS MOST OF THE WEEK...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING TO THE EAST AGAIN AS STRONGLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FORCES COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.  EASTERN COLORADO WILL NOT SEE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR BUT INSTEAD WILL JUST GET CLIPPED BY THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
AIR MASS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL FALL BACK BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE SHIFTING EAST OF COLORADO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE CONTDVD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME -SN TO THE ERN MTS AND I-25
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...SO WILL INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE TAFS BUT KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES RELATIVELY HIGH. IF PRECIP
OCCURS IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 02-08Z PERIOD FOR
KALS...04-10Z FOR KCOS AND 06-12Z FOR KPUB. ANY ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. CIGS AND/OR VIS COULD BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR WITH SN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY FRI MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FG/BR IN THE VALLEY. FRI WILL BE VFR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE



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