Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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522
FXUS65 KPUB 172145
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Currently...

Cold front was moving across the Palmer Divide at 2 pm and was
progressing southward. Temps across the plains were well into the
upper 90s, with Pueblo reaching 100F. Up in NE CO, current temps
have fallen into the lower 70s. A band of showers/isold tsra were
noted across NE CO.

Rest of today into tonight...

Cold front will move across the SE CO plains the rest of this
afternoon and should reach the CO/NM border by late afternoon or
early evening. Although an isold -tsra/-shra will be possible, most
areas will not see any measurable precip. For this reason have kept
pop chances very low across the plains. The best chance of any
precip will likely be across ne Kiowa county late this afternoon and
evening. After the front goes by, winds will take on a gusty
northerly component and eventually shift to northeast and decrease
later this evening.

A cloud deck is likely going to develop over a good part of the
plains late this evening into the early morning hours, so there
will be  good chance of an overcast sky at sunrise tomorrow morning.
some isold sprinkles cant be ruled out.

Over the mtns, an isold -tsra  cant be ruled out, especially across the
c mtns and Pikes Peak region, especially this evening.

Sunday...

A stable cool day is in store across the plains. The morning should
be cloudy to mostly cloudy, but skies should clear by mid to late
morning. It will be noticeably cooler across the plains, with highs
only in the U70s to M80s. As for precip, it will be dry except down
along the S mts where there will be sufficient instability for a few
-tsra during the late afternoon. Storms should not be strong. Mtns
will also be a bit cooler than today, but except for the regions
mentioned above, they will be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Not many adjustments required form previous meteorological
reasoning with main concerns during the longer term including but
not limited to continued above seasonal temperatures(outside of next
Saturday), isolated pops at times and winds.

Latest longer term PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that upper ridging will continue to
remain centered over the desert southwest into southern Colorado
into next Saturday, allowing above seasonal June temperatures to
continue into at least Friday. Next stronger north to
northeasterly surface surge is then expected to move across
eastern sections of the forecast district by next Friday.

It still appears that daily rounds of primarily isolated showers
and thunderstorms should be noted each day with a potential
increase in pops by next Friday and Saturday.

At this time, the highest potential for stronger gradient winds
over the forecast district is anticipated from Friday afternoon
into Friday night while warmest maximum temperatures during the
longer term should be noted from Tuesday into Thursday, where
maximum temperatures nearing or slightly exceeding the century
mark should still be noted over several eastern locations during
this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cold front will move south down the plains this afternoon and
evening. This front will cross KCOS 21 UTC and KPUB 22 UTC this
afternoon. Winds will shift to northeast and be gusty for 2-3 hours.
A lower cig is near certain and will move in after midnight and
remain over the two taf sites until late tomorrow morning. CIGs may
reach MVFR at KCOS, and just above MVFR at KPUB. VFR expected
tomorrow late morning though the evening.

KALS will be VFR next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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