Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 282212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
312 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

...More Snow for the Mountains...

The next system is currently moving through the mountains. CDOT web
cams show a big jump in snowfall rates along the Continental Divide
this past hour.  Disturbance will continue to move southeast across
the area tonight, favoring the Continental Divide this evening, then
gradually weakening overnight. Additional accumulations should range
from 3 to 6 inches as a generalization. The eastern mountain ranges
will also see some snow but coverage will be less widespread and
confined mostly to the Sangre De Cristos. Accumulations for the
Sangres will generally be localized and less than 3 inches. The
Pikes Peak area could also see a few snow showers move through
overnight but accumulations should be pretty light, generally an
inch or less. For everybody else, a spotty snow shower here and
there will be possible but any accumulations should be highly
localized and not amount to more than a dusting.

Snowfall will continue to diminish Tuesday and become more isolated.
Scattered snow showers will fall over the mountains and a flurry or
spotty snow shower will be possible elsewhere.  Any additional
accumulation Tuesday should be light, generally less than 2 inches
in the mountains with just a dusting possible elsewhere. Temps on
Tuesday will be chilly with afternoon highs maxing out about 5 to 10
degrees below average for this time of year.  For the first time in
a while, it will really feel like the season out there.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...Moderating northwest flow aloft
across the region through the night Tuesday becomes more westerly
through the day Wednesday, with a broad upper trough lifting out
north and east of the area, as short wave ridging builds across the
Rockies ahead of the next system digging across the Pac NW. Moisture
shallows out across the area, though with northwest flow aloft, cant
rule out some light snow across the higher terrain through Tuesday
evening, especially over the central mts.  Cold air in place behind
the passing system will allow for Tuesday night lows to be on the
chilly side, with single digits above and below zero expected across
the higher terrain and mainly in the teens across the eastern
plains. Slight warming aloft across the area into Wednesday night
will allow for highs Wednesday to be near Tuesday`s values, though
still below average, with Wednesday night lows at or slightly warmer
than Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...Pac NW trough continues to dig across the Great
Basin with latest longer range models still indicating some
differences in timing and location of the passing system. The EC
still remains the most progressive and furthest north as a broad
upper trough digs into southern Utah by 12Z Friday, with the main
energy then digging across central New Mexico and into the western
Texas Panhandle by 00Z Saturday. The GFS has more westerly flow
across the area Thursday night and then has the system digging into
the southern Great Basin by 12Z Friday and then develops a cut off
low across Desert SW and into Old Mexico by Friday night. Model
consensus favors a more progressive solution at this time, which
brings a quick shot of snow to the higher terrain Thursday night and
through the day Friday, with some light snow possible along and west
of the I-25 corridor through the day on Friday behind another
passing cold front, and out across the far southeast plains Friday
night as the the system continues to lift out across western Texas.
With limited available moisture and quick movement, snowfall looks to
be on the light side, though can`t rule out some fluffy accumulations
with H7 temps falling to between -10C and -16c Friday, if the EC
solution is more correct.

Saturday-Monday...Model differences continue through the weekend, as
the GFS keeps the main storm track north of the area into early next
week, where as the EC is further south with the jet stream across
the Rockies which keeps better chances for snow across the ContDvd.
For now, kept slight pops across the central mts with temperatures
slowly warming back to at and slightly above normal readings into
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

A Pacific storm system will move southeast across the flight area
through Tuesday. This system will result in widespread MVFR...IFR
and LIFR conditions across the Continental Divide with scattered
such conditions over the mountain ranges farther east.  Mostly VFR
is expected across the plains as the system moves through but a
spotty MVFR...IFR...LIFR cannot be ruled out.  This includes the
KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF sites.


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-



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