Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 101350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
750 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POP AND SKY COVER
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

...DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH INTO KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS IT DOES
SO...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS.  THE FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH IT.  HOWEVER...IT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
PEAKS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
WILL CARRY SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY.  ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING AND SHRINKING BACK
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

PROBABLY THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE COOLING IT WILL
BRING.  HIGHS TODAY OVER THE EAST WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  OVER THE
WEST...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  THIS TREND WILL CARRY ON INTO
TONIGHT WHERE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING`S LOWS AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WHILE THE
PLAINS RECORD MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  IT`S STARTING TO FEEL A LITTLE
BIT LIKE SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

THURSDAY...IN THE MORNING...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. IN
ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA...MODELS SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE COLD FRONT MAY JUST EDGE INTO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH 40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 0 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EITHER SOME SNOWFLAKES TO BE
MIXING IN WITH THE RAINS SHOWERS...OR ALL SNOW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET ON
THE COOLER SURFACES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WITH 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY...GFS AND NAM SHOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
DOWNSWING DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE EAST...BUT OUT WEST IT SHOULD BE MILD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING WHERE CROPS...FLOWERS...OTHER
PLANTS ARE STILL GROWING IN THE PLAINS AND SOME HIGH VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BRINGING STEADILY WARMER WEATHER...AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/LIGHT STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE...AS MONSOON PLUME IS HELD AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S PLAINS.
60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
THIS MORNING.  AS IT DOES SO...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.  THE DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ARE PRETTY
WEAK SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS.  HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE PEAKS AND PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH ANY ACTIVITY SHRINKING BACK
TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY SHOWERS.  THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SPOTTY SHOWER AROUND THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT THE ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO PUT
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  KALS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.  VFR EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 SITES NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM



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