Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242107
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
307 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

CURRENTLY...

GAP WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS (USAFA AREA...GREATER CANON CITY
AREA....GREATER WALSENBURG AREA) WERE BLOWING EARLIER TODAY BUT HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IT WAS STILL WINDY IN THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE C MTNS...AND IT WAS STILL OVERALL BREEZY
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTLY
WOUND UP SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY AT THIS TIME (2 PM).

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE QUITE MILD...WITH 70S MOST OF PLAINS
AND 60S UP IN THE COS AREA. 50S AND 60S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS.
MOST AREAS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR THE CONTDVD REGION WHICH
WAS PC/MC. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL POSSIBLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE C MTNS...ESPECIALLY N OF COTTONWOOD PASS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL  BECOME
LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
THE C MTNS.

TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION STARTING
TOMORROW. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND PRESSURES WILL
START TO LOWER ACROSS THE MTNS. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
INCREASE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY (FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
W LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES). WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RH
VALUES AOA 10% ALONG MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON SOME -TSRA WILL
MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD REGION...AND THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE S
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SW MTNS.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TOMORROW IN THE MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WITH SW WINDS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE.

TEMPS WILL BE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS MOSTLY IN THE
M70S/L80S....60S IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS LINING UP TO AFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER...ALL THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH MON EVE...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE E-
NE ACROSS COLORADO ON TUE...THEN MEANDER INTO NEBRASKA ON WED. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND PALMER DVD. HOWEVER...WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
THE E PLAINS TUE EVE...SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE IN THE 50S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPS
ON WED WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. FINALLY...AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME SINCE THE TIMING IS JUST
SLIGHTLY OFF...BUT WILL REASSESS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE WED MORNING...THERE WILL BE
A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL
CUT DOWN ON SOME...BUT NOT ALL...OF THE EXPECTED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW THU MORNING...AND THEN PROCEED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER THEN DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW AND CROSSES THE GREAT
BASIN IN QUICK SUCCESSION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS SECOND LOW
ESSENTIALLY MERGES WITH THE FIRST...AND BECOMES A CONGLOMERATION OF
CLOUDY...CONVECTIVE AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION FROM THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S
EACH DAY. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL PICK UP FROM THE S TO
SW TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING WINDY BY AFTERNOON.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A -TSRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KALS...HOWEVER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TO
LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCT ATTM.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ222-228>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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