Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180509
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Forecast updated to remove severe thunderstorm watch from the far
southeast counties and to update the evening pcpn chances.

UPDATE Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO OTERO COUNTY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. REMOVED
WATCH FROM OTERO COUNTY. ALSO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FRONT END
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

...Severe Threat Far Eastern Plains Early This Evening...

A strong upper level disturbance will bring a chance for severe
thunderstorms to the far eastern plains into the early evening
hours.  Strong forcing from the shortwave will combine with low
level moisture and instability to create the potential for 60 mph
winds, golf ball size hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning.
Storms farther west will have little forcing or moisture to work
with.  Consequently, the primary threats from those storms will be
lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph and spotty heavy rain.
Most thunderstorm activity should move east of the area, into
Kansas, after 00Z.  There could still be some spotty storms around
until about 03z but after that, dry air will spread into the region
from the west.  Sunday looks sunny and dry with near seasonal
temperatures for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Primary longer term meteorological concerns are
temperatures...pops and gusty winds/fire weather concerns
at times.

Recent longer range PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that the northwesterly upper
flow of Sunday night gives way to zonal to southwesterly upper
flow from Monday into Thursday night(as upper ridging becomes
centered over far West Texas). Then...the upper flow pattern
switches to northwesterly again from Friday into next Saturday as
a relatively impressive closed upper low initially located over
the Pacific Northwest at 12Z Wednesday shifts into eastern North
Dakota by next Saturday.

Basically dry conditions are projected over the forecast district
from Sunday night into at least Tuesday morning with somewhat
increased precipitation chances then noted at times from later
Tuesday into next Saturday.

At this time...the highest potential of gusty gradient winds are
expected from Monday night into Tuesday night and especially from
later Thursday into next Saturday. WFO Pueblo will closely
monitor fire weather issues/concerns during these time-frames and
issue fire weather highlights if needed. At this time...the
highest potential for elevated fire weather concerns/highlights
tend to favor later next week.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures generally running near
to above mid to late September climatological averages are
anticipated from Sunday night into Thursday night with cooler
conditions then prevailing Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected at the terminal
forecast sites thru the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28



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