Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 110930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CST THU JAN 11 2018

Highly anticipated winter storm coming together with regional
radars showing light rain across our region, with more
concentrated areas of wintery precipitation approaching from the
west. GOES-16 imagery is pretty impressive this morning with both
the water vapor and IR bands showing a notable curl associated
with a compact PV anomaly that extends down to 600-hPa. As
arctic air surges southeast this morning, precip over our area
will gradually change over to a wintry mix before eventually all
snow for a short time before coming to an end by early to mid-
afternoon. Main concerns going forward with today`s forecast
include the following:

1) Pre-frontal rainfall that may quickly freeze as cold air
surges in behind the cold front this morning. This could lead to
a flash freeze-type scenario, especially on area roadways and
exposed surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, and sidewalks;

2) Light freezing drizzle and sleet resulting in a light glaze
immediately behind the cold front; and

3) Deformation band snowfall across far northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas where totals could reach 5 inches in spots,
especially across Atchison County, MO. Gusty winds of up to 35
mph will additionally lead to very poor visibilities across these
areas as well.

Considering light glaze icing will be possible across all areas
today, have elected to extend the winter wx advisory to include
all counties, with the new eastern most segment set to expire at
00z. Overall, greatest impacts are expected across the far
northwest in the heavier snow, with light QPF amounts in the
post-frontal airmass leading to minor icing concerns downstream
across the KC Metro and points east. This system does not appear
to be crippling in any form or fashion, however light ice
accumulations on untreated surface will likely result in some
travel problems this morning and afternoon.

Precip to quickly come to an end later tonight as drier air moves
into the region. The main story from this point forward will be
the return of cold air with minor shortwaves leading to additional
snowfall chances both Saturday morning and again Sunday
night/early Monday. From the current look of things, the GFS seems
the most bullish with Sunday night`s system, however to appears to
be an outlier solution right now and trends will have to be
monitored in the coming days. Otherwise, below normal temperatures
look to dominate much of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST WED JAN 10 2018

MVFR stratus will gradually develop at all TAF sites over the
next few hours, then will gradually lower while rain showers
spread across the region. IFR ceilings are expected from 09z
through at least mid-morning along and behind a cold front that
will push through the region, as well as rain changing over to
light sleet and/or very light freezing rain as temperatures drop
Thursday morning. Precipitation type will change several times
especially at KSTJ, where type is likely to change over to all
snow a few hours prior to precipitation tapering off altogether
around 18z. Light ice accumulations and flash freezing of recent
rainfall accumulations will be a significant issue from mid- to
late-morning Thursday at all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for KSZ060.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for KSZ025-102.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for KSZ057-103>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MOZ007-008-015>017-023>025-031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for MOZ001>004-011-012-020.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for MOZ005-006-013-014-021-022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin



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