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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin