744
FXUS63 KEAX 251202
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
702 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pop up showers and storms possible this afternoon mainly east
  of I- 35. No severe weather is expected at this time. Some of
  the strongest storms could produce brief, heavy downpours.

- Severe storms possible Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend. Possible
  cooler temperatures to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Ongoing storms that have brought multiple rounds of rain will
continue to shift farther to the north as a weak initiating boundary
exits northern Missouri. These storms are anticipated to dissipate
farther to the north over IA later this morning as the low-level jet
diurnally weakens. Broad mid to upper level ridging will remain
dominant over the southeastern U.S., keeping conditions hot and
humid for our area. High temperatures today ranging in the low 90s
with dew points in the low 70s.

This afternoon, there is some potential for scattered afternoon pop-
up showers/storms, mainly east of I-35, as the cap erodes. The
threat for severe weather is low at this time. SBCAPE values ranging
from 2,500-3,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong updrafts.
Limited shear across the area will keep storms disorganized,
however. The primary threats are brief, torrential downpours, with
PWATs around 1.70-2 inches, and perhaps an isolated strong/severe
gust as the water-loaded storms collapse.

There is some uncertainty with the development of showers and storms
as the LREF keeps roughly 30%-50% chance across most of the area.
Newer runs of the HRRR have very minimal storm development, while
the NAM Nest shows more coverage of storms east of I-35. Decided to
keep some PoPs (less than 20%) in the forecast this afternoon with
good instability present and a diurnally eroded cap, particularly in
central Missouri, where diabatic heating may be a touch stronger.

Thursday afternoon into the evening marginally severe storms could
develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front associated with
an H5 trough moving into the Great Plains. CAPE will again be
diurnally moderate-to-strong (2000+ J/kg), but shear will once again
be modest at best (generally less than 25 kt 0-6 km). However, with
improved lift via the approaching front and upper-level forcing from
the aforementioned trough, think the severe potential is notably
higher on Thursday than for today. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat, with forecast DCAPE likely in excess of 1000 J/kg
and favorable thermodynamic profiles (somewhat drier midlevels,
sufficient mixing of the boundary layer, and little/no capping
inversion remaining by peak heating). Heavy rainfall is also
possible with PWATs around 1.8-2 inches. Weak MBE velocity
vectors point to the possibility of slower-moving storms and
potential for training, enhancing the flood threat, at least in
a localized sense. A primary uncertainty is frontal position
Thursday afternoon, with some CAMs considerably faster with the
progression of the front. Frontal position will be critical, as
these storms will be strongly diurnally-driven, with convection
likely to weaken considerably by late evening/overnight.

For the end of the work week into this weekend, rain chances become
more uncertain as a series of shortwaves move through the flow from
the western U.S. There is low confidence in rain chances given the
influence of the southeast U.S. ridge and the overall weak upstream
shortwave troughs (and general quasi-zonal upper flow). Hot and
humid conditions are anticipated to remain through the weekend with
heat indices in the 90s to low 100s.

Early next week, models continue to hint at the possibility of
cooler conditions as the ridge pushes farther to the east and a
trough moving over Canada pushes a cold front through the area.
However, the break from hot and humid conditions may be short-lived
as another ridge approaches the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Primarily VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. There
may be some brief fog at STJ early this morning, but any lowered
visibilities should quickly end by 13z or so. Additionally,
cannot rule out isolated storms this afternoon, but think these
will be primarily east of the TAF sites. Otherwise, expect south
winds around 10 kt this morning to become slightly more
southwesterly by midday into the afternoon, gusting at times to
around 20 kt. Winds should return to mostly a south direction
around 10 kt tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CMS