Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240831

231 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield will exit northeast and central MO by pre-
dawn hours of Monday morning. Could see a rain/snow mix or brief
change over to snow over far northeast MO but little if any accumulation.

Otherwise, main concern will be from gusty northwesterly winds. Tight
pressure gradient will gradually weaken from west to east on Monday
but boundary layer mixing could see winds ramp up higher during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. VFR cigs at all four
terminals but MVFR cigs possible Monday across northern MO. Also
can`t rule out widely scattered flurries over northern MO. Will see
winds diminish from west to east early Monday evening with clearing
from west to east.




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