Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172011
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
311 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Cloud cover has eroded some over southern/southeastern portions of
the forecast area this afternoon. With weak returns showing up on
radar from showers/storms in eastern Kansas, feel it`s possible the
southern half of the forecast area may see renewed showers and
possibly some storms later this afternoon into early this evening.
The better chances though should come late tonight and tomorrow
morning.

With persistent southwesterly flow and ample and deep moisture
advecting into the area, moisture will remain in place. Water vapor
imagery shows several features that will have an effect on our
weather. First, there appears to be a wave moving out of the Four
Corners area and into the southern High Plains. This is sparking
thunderstorms in southern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. The
second is a fetch of upper level moisture streaming north from the
tip of the Baja California Peninsula associated with tropical storm
Norma. This tropical moisture connection likely enhanced rainfall
this morning with several sites picking up 3 to 4 inches of rain
through the overnight hours. Models are in good agreement developing
convection in central KS late tonight and then tracking east into
the forecast area as the upper wave pushes east. Precipitable water
values approaching two inches is very anomalous for this time of
year and likely greater than the 90th percentile. Thus, efficient
rainfall is likely. Given this, have increased PoPs and QPF for late
tonight and especially tomorrow morning. We could see another
widespread inch of rain with locally higher amounts possible. The
thing that may limit flooding potential will be that the storms
should be progressive and not stall out in any given place.

Beyond the next 24 hours, shortwave upper ridging looks to build
across the area. Southerly to southwesterly low level flow will
persist, allowing for unseasonably warm and humid conditions. But
with the upper ridging, precipitation chances on any given day
through end of the week look fairly low. It`s not until the weekend,
and possibly into early next week, when a deep trough develops over
the west, that we may break the unseasonably warm and humid airmass.
Until then, it looks like highs in the middle to upper 80s with
afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s. This is typical weather for
August not late September.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Widespread low ceilings and patch fog will continue across eastern
Kansas and much of Missouri through the day. There may be a trend
to go from IFR to fuel alternate MVFR to MVFR this afternoon and
this evening. But overnight, ceilings are expected to fall back to
IFR. Another round of shower and storms looks possible tomorrow
morning as well and there may be visibility restrictions
associated with that activity.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB


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