Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 222322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist through the
weekend and potentially into Monday. The upper pattern has
stagnated over the last few days with deep upper troughing over
the west and ridging over the east. There is almost a Rex block
currently over the eastern half of the US and this becomes a
little more predominant over the weekend. This block is likely
responsible for the stagnant upper flow. But given this pattern,
persistent and deep southerly flow over the region has allowed for
very anomalous moisture to advect into the area. Dewpoints are
currently in the lower 70s across the area. Warm advection has led
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. This will continue until
the block begins to break down, which right now looks to be in the
Monday to Tuesday time frame. It doesn`t look as hot Sunday and
Monday, mainly due to the low portion of the Rex block migrating
westward and increasing cloud cover and reducing thicknesses. Then
as the western upper trough begins to influence the area, we`ll
see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. Right now, this activity looks to peak during the
overnight hours as models are in decent agreement moving the
front through at this time. The overall severe threat continues to
look low given weak instability and marginal shear.

Cooler than normal to near normal temperatures are expected in the
wake of the front for the remainder of the week. A secondary front
may bring some showers Thursday night into Friday, but this idea is
unique to the GFS. And with it nearly a week away have left the
rest of the forecast dry.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Gusty surface winds will continue to slacken this evening, though
will remain sustained near 10 kts through at least the late
evening. Saturday afternoon winds will increase slightly, though
gusts should not exceed 5 kts over sustained as low level flow
tapers off slightly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh


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