Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI MAR 17 2017

Short term (Friday night - Sunday):

The short term looks tranquil with not much in the way of weather
concerns. After a warm afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s, high pressure will build into the area for tonight. A good
radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s. High pressure will remain in control tomorrow leading to weak
mixing but with upper level ridging building into the area and sunny
conditions, highs will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday,
the upper level ridge axis will move over head with strong WAA at
the surface. Models are suggesting a weak shortwave rounding the
ridge will bring the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to
the southern CWA on Sunday morning. Temperatures will move way above
normal during the afternoon however, with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.

Extended Range (Sunday night - Friday):

The extended range actually holds several chances for much needed
precipitation to try an alleviate the moderate to severe drought
conditions. The first will come Sunday night as an upper level
trough moves across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This
will flatten the ridge across the local area and push a surface
front into the CWA. Forcing will be weak but there still may be
enough instability on the order of 500-800J/Kg of MUCAPE to have a
few thunderstorms develop mainly across north central Missouri.
Monday the front will continue to sag slowly across the CWA with the
slight chance for a storm during the evening otherwise conditions
will remain dry and mild with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Tuesday, an upper level ridge will build across the western Plains.
A shortwave will round that ridge an move through the area on Tuesday
bring another chance for showers. Another weak shortwave will try
and round the ridge again on Wednesday but with dry air near the
surface showers will be tough to come by. Wednesday night into
Thursday, a warm front will lift north through the CWA. A LLJ will
override this front and will bring the chances for thunderstorms.
Thursday night, a strong negatively-tilted upper level trough will
move on into the Plains forcing a strong cold front into the
forecast area. At this time, severe weather could be possible with
this system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT FRI MAR 17 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind speeds will
generally remain from the northwest under 12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair



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