Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021632

1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015

Issued at 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart
as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa. Updated the forecast to go
dry across eastern KS into western MO region through the afternoon.
May have to watch for a few showers, maybe even a storm moving into
far northwest MO later this afternoon where mid-level isentropic
ascent will increase later today. HRRR has been persistent in
producing precipitation across these areas, although the presence of
an EML below 700 hPa may make it difficult for any showers to really
get going. Threw in a `just-in-case` 20 percent for showers up that
way later today. Otherwise, thick low-level moisture remains trapped
below a deep inversion across northern and central MO, and these
areas appear unlikely to see much sun until maybe early evening.


Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Looks like another nice day, especially if the clouds scatter out
some this afternoon. Persistent low clouds through Monday helped
suppress temperatures that greeted the work week, and the trend this
morning is more of the same as low clouds remain trapped under a
modest inversion. As a result, low clouds will once again great the
day, but is more hope as a bit more boundary layer mixing later in
the day should help the clouds break up a bit for the afternoon
hours allowing warmer conditions, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri where cloud cover kept our
highs limited to the 60s Monday. As at result expect a rather
pleasant afternoon high in the 70s. Otherwise, for this morning have
inserted a fleeting slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and extreme western Missouri. Convective activity early this
morning is noted across the high plains to our west as a result of
decent moisture transport and isentropic assent associated with a
shortwave trough exiting the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. As the shortwave transits farther northeast the moisture
transport driving the storms will shift east resulting in many short
range high-res models advertising a line of broken showers or
thunderstorms bubbling up early this morning across eastern Kansas
which will waft toward western Missouri for a couple of hours this
morning. With no strong upper level dynamics to help support the
storms or shear or instability to work with any storms that do
bubble up will not have much life to them. Have limited mention of
storms in the forecast to isolated activity along the
Kansas-Missouri border for the morning hours as a result, but may
remove even these fleeting slight chance POPs if satellite or radar
data don`t start showing any activity bubbling up over the next
couple of hours in eastern Kansas.

Looking beyond today, weather in our section of the country will be
greatly influenced by a ridge poking up into the Plains States and
the shortwave trough that spill over its apex, bringing the
potential for storms to our region. In general, models continue to
advertise a persistent weakness in the flow across the eastern CONUS
over the coming week. Coupled with a persistent ridge axis across
the Plains, and/or southern Rockies, and this sets the stage for
multiple rounds of storms starting Wednesday and lasting through the
weekend as each successive trough slips east to southeast through
the northern and central Plains. Confidence in anyone period for
storms is not the best, so have continued with a general broad brush
of Chance and Likely POPs for Wednesday through Friday. Have gone
with mostly slight-chance to no-chance POPs for the day Saturday as
a hint that it wont be stormy all the time, but confidence in any
period being storm free through the weekend is rather low. Severe
potential is a bit hard to rough out given the uncertainties of the
current crop of model solutions, but in general what rain the storms
bring us in the coming days does not look as significant as the
flooding rain we had in recent weeks. This does not mean that
flooding wont be possible, just not widespread.

Otherwise, with our section of the Nation on the nose of a ridge
axis for the next week, expect temperatures to climb up into the 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s. Starting to feel a bit like summer!


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MVFR clouds dominate the Kansas-Missouri border region and all our
terminals as a result this morning. Low clouds should have a bit more
success today scattering out this afternoon with the help of
southeast winds. There is a small potential that isolated
thunderstorms will bubble up across eastern Kansas and drift east
into far western Missouri during the morning hours, but the
likelihood of any of the storms is thought to be so small as to not
warrant including in the TAFs at this time.




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