Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182010
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB





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