Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
124
FXUS63 KEAX 152319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Short Term (Tonight - tomorrow night):

Freezing rain is transitioning to rain as the freezing line is
lifting north across the CWA. That freezing line currently extends
from MCI to Moberly line. Areas north of that line will continue to
see freezing rain into tonight however accumulations are expected to
be limited mainly to untreated, elevated surfaces, and other
objects. Accumulations on a tenth of an inch will be possible north
of Highway 36. By sunrise tomorrow, the entire CWA will be above
freezing and the upper level system that brought the weekend ice
will move through the area. An associated cold front will move
through the CWA tomorrow afternoon continuing shower chances and in
fact a thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Moderate rain will also be
possible as PWAT values will be around 1" which is 3 standard
deviations above normal for the middle of January. Half an inch to
an inch of rain will be possible tomorrow. The upper level system
shifts east of the area tomorrow night with precipitation coming to
an end by Tuesday morning.

Medium Range (Tuesday - Sunday):

The middle of the work week looks dry and mild with a warming trend.
High pressure will move into the area on Tuesday with temperatures
near normal between the mid 30s to mid 40s. On Wednesday, warm air
advection will begin over the area as a upper level ridge of high
pressure begins to build into the area. highs Wednesday will be in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. On Thursday, the upper ridge axis moves
over the region with continued WAA allowing temperatures to move
near 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 50s to near 60. The
next chance for precipitation will not come until Thursday night
into Friday as an upper low moves from the western High Plains into
the Upper Midwest. High temps will still be in the 50s to lower 60s
friday and Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Kept LIFR to IFR conditions through much of the period. Upstream
radar observations and high-res models suggest steady showers or
drizzle to lessen through the remainder of the evening hours as a
little drier air briefly shifts into the area. This should be
replaced by a multi-hour period of rain as the upper wave
approaches the region during much of Monday morning. Dry slot
should conclude steady precipitation by mid-afternoon but retain
low stratus and perhaps light scattered showers or drizzle
thereafter.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>024.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.