Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 131135
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 421 AM CST MON NOV 13 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place
across the Nation with a shortwave trough zipping east up the Ohio
River Valley with shortwave ridging back to our west and a larger
trough just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Locally, clouds
started to shift east late Sunday with the progressive trough that
brought them, but then spread north overnight on the back side of
the surface high in place across the region. This allowed enough
clearing across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas to induce a
bit of dense fog. The advisory for the fog will go through about 9
AM, though even as the fog lifts expect clouds to stick around.
Ultimately, expect a foggy start to a cloudy day with a rather flat
temperature range.

In general this week, the progressive pattern that has been
dominating the Nation over the past week or so will keep a steady
parade of shortwave troughs moving across the Plains States through
the coming week. Thus, the trend of pleasant Fall days interspersed
between days of over running moisture (cool and cloudy with drizzle)
is expected to persist through the coming week.

Tuesday into Wednesday is when we expect the next shortwave --
currently just off the Northwest Pacific coast-- to jet across the
Plains. The standard warm air and moisture advection ahead of the
trough will likely induce more drizzle by Tuesday, with widespread
showers expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There looks to
be no severe potential with storms late Tuesday night, but we will
need to watch rainfall totals as there may be enough to induce some
local river flooding. That said, latest model runs early this
morning are pointing at the axis for heavy rain setting up either
along or just southeast of our forecast area. However, another
trough is expected to repeat this pattern again starting Thursday
afternoon. But, this late work week trough looks to amplify a bit
more moving across the Plains, thus inducing a bit of warming for
Friday (highs in the 60s). This might produce stronger storms
Thursday night into Friday, but current model timing has the focus
for this activity across central Missouri and points east.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 13 2017

IFR to low end MVFR conditions will persist through sunrise, with
low MVFR cloud cover likely to remain in place all day and into
the overnight hours. May have to watch for IFR to LIFR conditions
at the end of this TAF cycle as moisture advection gets going
ahead of the next system that will move through Tuesday and
Wednesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ102.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>016-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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