Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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052
FXUS63 KEAX 222000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017

An upper level shortwave ahead of an upper level low is providing
the energy for the showers and few embedded storms today. The
storms will be isolated due to weak CAPE values between around 800 J/kg.
No severe weather is anticipated with this activity. Late
tonight, the upper level low will start working its way south into
the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will sweep through the
area. This will bring another opportunity of showers for everyone.
The chance for showers will continue through Tuesday night as
this system moves through. We may also see a few storms tomorrow
afternoon despite low CAPE values. This is because the upper level
low will be overhead, bringing in cold air aloft and lowering the
freezing level to about 5000-6000 ft. It is also possible to see
some small hail fall out of any storms that develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the lowered freezing level. We could see a
similar situation regarding the showers and storm potential
Wednesday in the eastern part of the forecast area, as the system
exits the region. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be below
normal once the cold front passes. Expect highs in the low-mid
60s and lows in the 40s.

Dry and warmer conditions are expected Thursday as upper-level
ridging and a surface high move into the Midwest. Temperatures are
expected to be back in the mid 70s. This will be the best day to get
yard work done and do other outdoor activities this week.
Temperatures should be slightly warmer for the weekend with the
upper 70s, low 80s for highs and 50s and 60s for low.

An active pattern is forecast for the holiday weekend. Right now it
looks like the first chance for showers and storms will be Friday
with another round expected Saturday potentially lingering into
Sunday. While models do agree on the active pattern, they do not
agree on specifics about timing and location. The most notable
difference is the GFS wants to hang on to the showers and storms
well into Sunday/Monday, whereas the Canadian pushes the activity
(which is very little to begin with) out of the region Saturday
night with the ECMWF in the middle. Either way we can expect some
showers and storms this weekend and at least a short break in the
rain once this system exits the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017

Scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected for
most of the period across the area. Showers will stay mainly north
of the MO river for most of the afternoon and then will move into
areas south of the MO river late in the afternoon through the
evening. In addition, a second round of showers is possible late
tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Everyone should
see VFR conditions until the cold front moves through, dropping
ceilings into the MVFR category for the entire area. There is a
chance ceilings will lift back to VFR near the end of the period
but confidence on timing is low right now. They should lift to VFR
at some point though tomorrow afternoon. Winds will veer to the
northwest late tonight with the cold frontal passage. Wind speeds
should pick up tomorrow afternoon but most likely won`t be until
just after the end of this period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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