Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152043
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
243 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 244 PM CST WED FEB 15 2017

Main concern over the next day or so is the potential very high
to extreme fire danger Thursday. The antecedent grass conditions are
already extremely dry given the time of year as well the abnormally
dryness the area has experienced over the last month or so. Add in
unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty southwest winds and low
humidity values and it looks like a classic fire weather day.
Forecast soundings show relatively deep mixing to around 900mb
with an extremely dry airmass aloft. This should result in
afternoon dewpoints mixing to the upper 20s and lower 30s,
overcoming the moisture advection models show. It should also
result in 25 to 35 mph gusts. The best combination of low
humidity values and gusty winds should be along and south of the
Missouri river. Given this, have issued a Red Flag Watch from
Atchison County, KS through Howard County, MO and southward.
Further north, it looks like winds will not be as strong and
humidity values won`t be as low. But fire danger will remain high
in those areas well.

We`ll need to watch Friday for fire weather concerns as well,
although at the moment humidity values are higher and winds are
lower, keeping fire danger from reaching critical levels.

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend with
highs in the 60s and perhaps 70s on Saturday and in the lower 70s
for Sunday. However, persistent southerly flow should lead to higher
dewpoints and deeper moisture, limiting conditions favorable for
very high to extreme fire danger.

By Sunday night into Monday, the ridge starts to get undercut by a
closed low that models show should be over TX. This may be a little
fast given the upper level flow and tendency for models to too
quickly move cutoff lows east. But the troughing associated with the
low, that extends northward through the Plains, may provide enough
upper lift to lead to decent chances for rain and even a few
storms Monday afternoon and evening. For Tuesday and beyond, there
remains a good amount of uncertainty as models struggle to handle
the movement of the cutoff low to our south, embedded within the
ridge, and faster moving shortwaves moving with the flow over the
middle of the US.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST WED FEB 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A weak surface
ridge will move across the area, leading to period of time of
variable winds this afternoon, as winds transition from northerly
to southwesterly this evening. Winds will increase from the
southwest and become gusty by late tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

MO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for MOZ028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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