Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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342
FXUS63 KEAX 200922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2018

GOES-East satellite imagery showing low clouds developing on
schedule this morning as moisture return is now becoming better
defined across the Central Plains and lower Missouri Vly. This
leads to a challenging high temp forecast today as this morning`s
statistical guidance has warmed several degrees over yesterday`s
values. Considering we`re starting out fairly warm with temps in
the lower 40s right now, have decided to bump a few degrees on to
today`s forecast with upper 40s to low 50s expected across much of
the area. Periods of drizzle will also be possible today into
tonight as low clouds stick around, however this activity should
remain fairly light.

Precip chances to increase across the board by Sunday afternoon as
a strong cold front begins sliding through the area. This will
all occur in association with a leeside low pressure center
as it lifts from the southern High Plains into eastern Kansas and
southeast Nebraska by 06z Monday. As highlighted in recent
discussions, very weak instability immediately ahead of this front
may set off a few late afternoon and evening thunderstorms
primarily east of the Route 65 corridor. That said however, poor
instability generation resulting from a lingering low stratus deck
appears to be the main limiting factor preventing a bigger severe
weather threat, and the SPC day 2 outlook continues to keep the
marginal risk area to our south. Much of our region then looks to
get dryslotted by daybreak Monday which will gradually give way
to rain changing over to light snow showers later Monday morning
as the main deformation band moves through. Light QPF should keep
any snowfall relatively light with maybe a few tenths to an inch
possible up along the Iowa border. Otherwise, cold air to settle
into the area on Monday with dry weather then expected though much
of the remainder of the fcst period. Next chance for organized
precip looks to hold off until next weekend with a nice warming
trend appearing likely or the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST FRI JAN 19 2018

Although VFR conditions are currently prevailing, a reduction in
categories is expected for much of this TAF period as low-level
stratus and drizzle advects into the region. SW winds will
dominate through Saturday evening, becoming southeasterly Saturday
night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...lg



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