Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250529

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Issued at 429 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Seasonably warm temperatures seen across the area this afternoon
as deepening surface low takes shape over the High Plains. Steady
southerly winds persist around 20 to 30 mph ahead of the low, with
dry surface conditions. Good mixing will combine with the dry and
windy conditions to bring enhanced fire conditions for at least the
remainder of the afternoon, before winds gradually calm down and RH
values start to climb. Good slug of low level moisture will begin
advecting north through the overnight hours, which will cause low
clouds to build in through the overnight period and through the day
on Wednesday. While temperatures will still be fairly mild through
the day on Wednesday the low levels will remain saturated enough to
bring some light drizzle or perhaps even some very light rain
through the day time hours on Wednesday. Through the day on Wed and
night on Thursday deep moisture will work its way into the area
within the strong southerly flow in the low levels. Eventually, by
Thursday afternoon and evening PWAT values will reach a very
unseasonably high range of 1.25 to 1.50 inches. Forecast soundings
for the area indicate very deep saturation with strong isentropic
ascent as well as some ascent from the approaching large trough to
the west. Steady rain is anticipated through the Thanksgiving
holiday with very efficient rain rates anticipated. Expect over an
inch of precipitation area-wide, with areas along and south of I-70
to receive well over an inch, possibly approaching 2 to 3 inches of
rain through Thursday night.

Complicated forecast for the Thursday night into the weekend time
frame as cold air wedges its way into the area prior to the
precipitation coming to an end. Low level warm nose remains firmly in
place across the entire region, which will preclude any real chance
for snow to fall. Instead surface temperatures will likely fall
below freezing across far northern Missouri, more toward the
Missouri River. Expect temperatures on Thursday night to drop below
freezing with precipitation ongoing. Minor accumulations of ice and
sleet will be possible, again north of I-70. As far as winter
weather headlines are concerned, there was not enough certainty
about how long the cold air would be in place or how cold the air
would be to determine exactly how much accumulation would take
place. Through the weekend, the cold air will likely remain in place
over far northern Missouri, but will likely be diurnally influenced
to warm above freezing through the day time hours on Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. These warmer periods should spell temporal ends
to any frozen precipitation, but overnight lows dropping back below
freezing could resume frozen precip chances during those overnight
period. Off and on precipitation north of I-70 will keep lower end
chances going through the weekend, while areas along and south of I-
70 will see a steady feed of moisture into the area bringing pretty
steady rain through at least Saturday and into Sunday night. While
the I-70 corridor could be far enough north to warrant some concern
for freezing precipitation during the late week and into the weekend
that area should see mostly rain.

The main upper wave responsible for this late week/weekend mess will
eject out into the plains by Monday/Tuesday time frame and could
cause some widespread snow to fall across northern Missouri into
Southern Iowa. 850mb temps look cool enough to produce snow, so as
long a surface temps get to near freezing there could be some
accumulating snow along and north of HWY 36 Monday into Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

A stratus deck around 4kft has moved into the terminals and cigs
should cont to drop thru the overnight becmg MVFR around 11Z. Cigs
will cont to drop blw 2kft around 15Z when lgt drizzle will also be
possible. Cigs will fall into the IFR cat during the evening hours
with lgt drizzle contg. Lgt fog will also become possible tomorrow
evening reducing vsbys to 3-5SM. Winds thru the TAF pd will be out of
the south around 15kts with gusts to 25kts.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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