Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300555

1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Southwest winds will increase to around 40 kts at 500-1000 ft AGL,
resulting in a period of low-level wind shear between 09z and 13z
while surface winds remain light southeasterly. A few light rain
showers are possible around 15z-18z, but should not significantly
reduce visibility, and ceilings should remain around 10 kft. A cold
front will move through the TAF sites around 18z, veering winds
sharply to the northwest at speeds around 15 to 20 kts.




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