Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250454
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 244 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

Scattered showers over west and central MO associated a low pressure
system over SE MO will persist through sunset.  Due to the scattered
nature of these showers PoPs remain relatively low through the
afternoon.  Cloudy skies and northerly winds will once again keep
the high temperatures well below normal as this trend changes going
into Thursday. Overnight clouds are expected to scatter out with
light winds in place, setting up the likelihood of patchy to area
fog formation over most of the area Thursday morning. The lowest
visibilities look to be located near the calm winds over the
central portion of our CWA. Winds will shift to the south with
warm air advection pushing into the area along a weak ridge
building into the area. This should allow clear skies and
temperatures to reach back up into the normal range, mid 70s, for
Thursday.

The ridging will quickly move east with a zonal upper level
pattern over the southern Rockies initiates a more active pattern
for the weekend. A minor shortwave ejects into western KS Thursday
night into Friday helping to spin up a nocturnal MCS type feature
that runs along the KS/NE border just clipping NW MO Friday
morning. NAM is a little more aggressive and brings the feature
through the area causing PoPs to lower and increase in coverage
over the area with the uncertainty. Low pressure over OK will
start to move into the area Friday afternoon in the form of a weak
warm front over out southern CWA. Some afternoon thunderstorms
are possible if there is enough lift to weaken and break the
capping inversion near 800hPa which is still looking like a low
possibility.

A more significant shortwave will exit the Rockies Friday night
which will help develop a low over OK and once again signal a MCS
forming up along the KS/NE border. Stronger upper level support and
low level convergence with this feature will increase the likelihood
of it making its way into the CWA Saturday late morning. An axis of
higher MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 50kts will be plenty
of fuel to increase the chances of severe weather.  Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main threat as this feature pushes
through.  Strong warm air advection and lowering heights aloft will
prime the southern CWA for a round of potential severe convection if
the MCS stays far enough north in the morning.  A warm frontal
boundary will lie right along I-70 from central MO through St. Louis
in the afternoon providing some 0-1km SRH in that region.  SBCAPE
near 2500 J/kg and 0-6km shear above 40kts will keep the chance for
severe in place over the southern and eastern portion of the CWA
Saturday afternoon. The cold front associated with this low will
move south rapidly clearing out the CWA Saturday night into Sunday
leaving a precip free day in the mid 70s for Sunday and Monday. A
weak backdoor cold front will push through the region Tuesday mo
increasing the chances of some showers and isolated thunderstorms
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

A surface ridge has moved over all TAF sites, resulting in nearly
calm winds and efficiently falling temperatures. The ridge will
shift to the east over the next few hours, allowing a weak
southeast wind to develop at the terminals by the coolest part of
the morning and potentially keeping the lowest visibility fog (that
will develop as temperatures drop) mainly to their east. However,
some light or patchy fog is possible, so have maintained the MVFR
visibility fog for a few hours around sunrise Thursday. Otherwise,
mainly clear skies are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Laflin



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