Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 080532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Challenging forecast for the short-term as there are several concern
that need to be addressed over the next 24 hours. The first of which
will revolve around the potential for severe weather tonight through
the overnight with widespread damaging winds a possibility with the
potential for a derecho event as well as large hail and perhaps even
few tornadoes with mesovortices along the line of storms. Another
threat with be the potential for flash flooding and river flooding
with widespread heavy rainfall.

This afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough
digging through the Dakotas. This trough will continue to dig as it
moves into the Upper Midwest tonight. This will force a cold front
into the Plains states. There are two main area we expect
thunderstorms to develop this evening. The first is across southern
Nebraska/northern Kansas in an area of differential heating south of
a decaying MCS. The second is an area currently developing along the
aforementioned cold front across northwestern Kansas. These storm
are expected to shift eastward this evening merging over
southeastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. These storm are expected
to develop into a line of storms as it reaches the CWA.

Looking at the severe parameters the area will be very unstable with
2500-3500J/kg of CAPE, and abundant moisture with dewpoints in the
lower 70s. Shear is modest but nearly unidirectional. This will lead
us to the main threats originally being damaging winds and large
hail. The HRRR, GFS, and NAM by 04Z-06Z all develop a 60-70kt LLJ
punching into the back of this line of storms. It is reasonable to
think if these winds can be transported down to the surface we could
be looking a bow echo and perhaps a derecho event where we would
experience widespread damaging winds along the I-70 corridor.

The other concern (but by no means a lesser concern) is the
potential for flash flooding and river flooding. Model soundings
this afternoon indicate PWAT values of 2.00"-2.50" which is nearly
three standard deviations about normal for the beginning of July. As
such these storms will be extremely efficient rain producers and if
training or a large stratiform shield develops behind the main line,
flooding will be a concern. Most areas are reporting flash flood
guidance of 1.5"-2.0" per hour, as well as many rivers with
headwater guidance in the same range. These flooding concerns has
led to continue to the flash flood watch for most of the CWA.

Thunderstorms are expected to progress eastward to southeastward
over the CWA through the overnight producing damaging winds.
Although the potential for a tornado is low there still is the
chance for a mesovort along the line to produce a tornado. The
storms will exit the area by daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday, temperatures behind this front will be much more manageable
with highs in the low to mid 80s with lower humidity values. Tuesday
afternoon high pressure will begin to build into the area setting
the stage for a "windows-wide" kind of night. Lows by Wednesday
morning will be in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Overall confidence in forecast through Friday is moderately high.
The medium range global models remain in reasonably good agreement
during this period with an upper trough over the eastern U.S. and an
upper ridge from the Rockies westward. Northwest flow lies
in-between with surface high pressure over the region on Wednesday
gradually retreating to the east. Slightly below average
temperatures and lower than normal humidity levels are expected to
gradually increase towards the end of the work week as the boundary
layer veers to a more southerly direction. Still looking at a chance
for elevated convection Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as
isentropic ascent and a warm front lift through the CWA.

The weekend and the early part of next week are more uncertain as
there is considerable difference between the GFS and ECMWF. However,
this forecast leans more heavily on the previous model consensus and
latest GFS as the 12z ECMWF has become a significant outlier as it
closes off a large upper low over southeast Canada and sends a
backdoor cold front through the central U.S. Looks more early Spring
with progged h8 temperatures of 6C-8C by Monday night. Favoring the
previous model consensus and latest GFS suggests a more moderate
stance with seasonal temperatures over the weekend and modest
cooling on Monday. Rain chances are based more on climate with no
discernible signals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

The main threat of strong to severe winds have cleared the terminals
as of 06Z. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at STJ through
07Z and MCI/MKC by 08-09Z. Upstream obs have indicated that low clouds
have cleared pretty quickly behind this convective system with just a
scattered 10k deck and prevailing VFR conditions. This 10K deck should
also clear out pretty quickly before diurnal heating tomorrow
morning allows for a few fair weather cu. Winds will remain light
behind the system through tomorrow morning before picking up out of
the north by late morning as surface gradient strengthens across the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...PMM





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