Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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498
FXUS63 KEAX 290900
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Very little change is noted with the weather pattern today, and as
such approaching the forecast from a persistence standpoint is a
decent starting point. Predictability of thunderstorm coverage
remains rather ambiguous as no notable upper waves or synoptic
boundaries are present. Highest coverage of thunderstorms will be
during the afternoon and evening hours during peak instability and
eroded convective inhibition within areas of preexisting outflow
boundaries and new outflow from ongoing thunderstorms. The
environment is also similar with modest deep layer shear and pockets
of moderate instability. The shear is slightly stronger across far
northern Missouri, colocated with the highest instability north of
Interstate 70. While organized, persistent convection will generally
not be supported, a couple strong storms cannot be ruled out,
especially along and north of Interstate 70. The main threat will be
brief downburst winds approaching 50-60 mph gusts. Additionally, the
most robust storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall
within a short amount of time, therefore convection that manages to
form in clusters aided by colliding outflow boundaries will have a
localized flash flooding potential. With the loss of diurnal
instability, convection should gradually wane prior to midnight.
Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to near 70.

The pattern undergoes some changes Tuesday into Wednesday. A large
upper trough will begin to dig into the northeast US, while energy
from a remnant cutoff low currently near the Four-Corners region
moves across the region. At the surface, a cold front will push
through the forecast area on Wednesday. These players will lead to a
notable increased chance for thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
through Wednesday. Similar environment will exist, with the threat of
a few strong storms and an increased potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding. Temperatures will be coolest on Thursday and
Friday as cooler and drier air advects into the area upon
northeasterly surface winds. Afternoon readings will generally
reside in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Widely scattered convection is possible across northern MO through
mid Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions with a general broken
cloud deck around 12k ft across northern MO. Think Monday afternoon
and evening could yield similar results as Sunday with widely
scattered convection. There will could be pockets of more
concentrated storms and heavy rains where meso scale boundaries
collide but where those occur won`t be known until storms are well
underway.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ



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