Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190510
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 226 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

A weak stationary boundary has become settled near the Missouri
River this afternoon but has made very little impact on the
unseasonable warmth in place with temperatures in the upper 60s as
far north as the Iowa border. The main impact from this feature
will be widespread low clouds and areas of fog later tonight as
stratus to the south begins to interact with the boundary. Current
thinking is that increasing winds and relatively warm ground
temperatures will create more of a stratus set up as opposed to
widespread dense fog.

Boundary will lift north on Sunday allowing temperatures to rise
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the warmer readings
further east across central MO where morning low clouds will not
be as thick or widespread. Areas of rain and a few thunderstorms
will spread into the area late Sunday night ahead of a weakening
upper trough tracking across the Plains. The best upper dynamics
with this system will bypass the area to the north and south, and
the resulting lack of widespread deep forcing should keep
precipitation amounts to a quarter of an inch or less.

Despite the passage of a weakening cold front Tuesday morning, a
fast return to short-wave ridging will likely bring temperatures
back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Tuesday and a few degrees
higher on Wednesday. This could threaten record highs particularly
on Weds (73 at Kansas City, 70 at St. Joseph). The next weather
maker will track across the area Thursday and Friday which again
looks to be mostly rain with the very warm air in place ahead of
it.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

While reductions in visbys/ceilings still look possible at the
terminals later tonight into early Sunday morning, cirrus shield
moving in from the west could throw a wrench into these
reductions. Therefore, have bumped up ceilings for this issuance
to low-end MVFR, borderline IFR given the uncertainty. By midday
Sunday, still looks like ceilings will rise but by tomorrow night,
LL clouds are anticipated to move back in with perhaps some
showers toward the end of this TAF period. Winds will generally be
out of the south, becoming more southeasterly by Sunday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...lg


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