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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162317
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 226 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

A beautiful fall work-week is in store as high pressure continues to
dominate our weather. Highs today will be slightly warmer than
yesterday, mid to upper 60s, as surface winds back to the southwest.
The surface high will continue sliding east tonight; therefore, this
and the wind shift should keep temperatures from getting as cool as
they did this morning. Right now we are looking at the mid 40s for
lows tomorrow morning. High temperatures will increase a couple
degrees each day this week as we remain in southwesterly flow at the
surface and more amplified upper level ridging moves in overhead.

Friday will have the warmest widespread temperatures, mid to upper
70s, as we transition into the warm sector of a low developing over
Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. An upper level trough, centered
over Alberta and Saskatchewan as well, will accompany the surface
low, bringing us our next chance for showers and storms Saturday
into Sunday. The associated surface cold front is forecast to move
through the area starting some time Saturday afternoon/evening and
should be the main focus for a line of showers and storms. However,
scattered showers and storms are possible ahead of the upper level
trough and surface front, as the trough ejects energy over our area
with a fairly strong, co-located 850 mb LLJ. As for severe weather,
right now, the strongest instability and shear are not co-located,
as the stronger shear is behind the cold front. Therefore, severe
weather doesn`t seem likely at this time. PWAT values Saturday are
forecast to be around 1.5, which is very high for this time of
year. The system should move through at a decent pace, but given
the high PWATs, localized flooding is a possibility.

Once the weekend system moves through, surface high pressure will
settle in, providing dry conditions and dropping temperatures to
near normal.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

Could make a case for some marginal LLWS tonight. Surface winds will
likely be the driving force behind the magnitude of the LLWS. 30-35
kts just off the surface (700-1000 feet) would be quite concerning
if surface winds completely drop off, but forecast for now
indicates surface winds staying up around 5-10 kts. Will continue
to monitor surface conditions and handle with AMD and/or with the
upcoming 06z forecast. Tomorrow could bring some wind gusts to 20
kts. Probably won`t be continual gustiness, but certainly there
will be a few occasional gusts approaching 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Leighton