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000
FXUS63 KEAX 042128
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Tonight - Wednesday Night:

The flow across the country is mainly zonal with several embedded
shortwave troughs. Water vapor imagery shows the trough that will
affect our weather Wednesday moving through Utah currently. As this
trough continues to move in a east southeasterly direction and moves
into the Plains, the main vorticity center will move well south of
the forecast area. But the northward extent of this maximum will
still influence our weather. The NAM and GFS are fairly consistent
indicating a frontogenetic band of snow developing late tonight or
early tomorrow morning across far northern Missouri into
southeastern Nebraska and Kansas. Taking cross sections through this
band reveals strong Omega centered around the -15C isotherm. There
is a thin layer below this with temperatures near to just above 0C
so initially some sleet mixed with snow is possible. But as the
temperatures cool, snow will become the predominant type by mid to
late morning. Forecast soundings also suggest the potential for more
of showery nature to the precipitation with some positive buoyancy in
the boundary layer. This is only several thousand feet deep but it
suggest the potential for pockets of briefly heavier snow.

Models also show this band of snow weakening as it tracks
southeastward as the stronger frontogenesis wanes and the Omega
weakens. It`s possible our southeastern counties may see nothing out
of this while our northern/northwestern counties see an average of
around half an inch. With the potential for some pockets of heavier
snow showers there may be locations in northwestern Missouri that
see between an inch to as much as two inches. But at this time, it
looks more isolated in nature given the showery nature to the snow.

Thursday - Friday:

Quiet weather should prevail through this period as we`ll be between
systems. Generally zonal flow over the region with southerly low
level winds should allow our temperatures warm to closer to normal
values by the end of the week. Highs by Friday should be able to
climb into the upper 40s and 50s.

Friday Night - Saturday:

The system that will affect the area this weekend looks fairly
similar to the Wednesday system in that the main vorticity center
will track to our south with the elongated northern maximum move
through the area positively tilted. But unlike the system on
Wednesday, temperatures should start above freezing and then cool
off. This poses problems regarding precipitation type and for now
have just continued a mention for rain/snow where temperatures are
above freezing and snow for below freezing surface temperatures.
With the main energy from the system move south of the area,
precipitation amounts look fairly low, with around a tenth of inch
liquid equivalent across the area. This could lead to between half
an inch to an inch of snow across the northern half of the forecast
area.

Sunday - Monday:

The flow should quickly become zonal across the region and to our
west with low-level winds becoming southerly. This will advect
warmer temperatures into the area and it`s possible that Spring may
begin to spring by the early part of next week. Highs on Monday
should be able to climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s with only
slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast until late
tomorrow morning when lower, MVFR ceilings work south into the area.
There is potential for some minor fog tonight as winds diminish. This
probability is enhanced by the melting of the sleet/snow cover with
temperatures warming into the 30s and the higher sun angle. For now
have reduced visibilities to around 4 miles late tonight. Light snow
looks possible late in the forecast as a band slides south through
the area. Forecast soundings suggest more of a showery type nature to
the snow with some low-level instability noted. This could mean
several quick bursts of snow at the terminals with conditions,
particularly visibility, worse than forecast. But the overall trend
will be for minor visibility restrictions due to the light snow. The
most likely timing for this will be late Wednesday morning through
early in the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB