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000
FXUS63 KEAX 032019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32