Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021127

627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Issued at 259 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The main concern in the short term will revolve around morning
thunderstorms and the possible affects on temperatures today. The
aforementioned thunderstorms have developed in an area of isentropic
ascent which will weaken through the mid morning hours with showers
diminishing. It is possible an additional half an inch to one inch
could fall across northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern
Kansas where these storms have developed. There will be additional
cloud cover that will exist over the northwestern CWA through the
morning hours however, skies should clear this afternoon and
temperatures should quickly warm. Highs across the CWA today will
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a
upper level ridge builds over the area. The ridge axis will reside
over the area on Thursday and Friday keeping conditions dry and
allowing highs to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge
will begin to weaken on Saturday as a upper level trough digs into
the west coast and moves into the intermountain west. Conditions,
however, should remain dry and warm on Saturday with highs remaining
in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Sunday, the upper level trough will move into the northern High
Plains forcing a cold front into the Plains. Warm air advection out
ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
90s despite an increase in cloud cover. Sunday night the upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and the cold front will
approach the area with thunderstorms moving into the area from the
west. This marks the beginning of an active weather pattern across
the area. By Monday, the upper level trough lifts northeastward into
Canada allowing the cold front to stall across the CWA. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
middle of the work week as several upper level shortwaves move
through the area sparking convection along the stalled front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The main concern for aviators during this TAF period will be the
chance for thunderstorms at STJ and MCI this morning. STJ is already
experiencing thunderstorms and will cont to receive storms thru
15Z-16Z, however, conds should remain VFR with cigs around 6kft and
vsbys around 6SM. MCI may have a few thunderstorms in the VC thru 16Z
but, confidence is low on storms actually making it into the
terminal. Otherwise, expect bkn mid-lvl cigs to become scattered
this afternoon. Winds are out of the south this morning around 10kts
but will increase by late morning to around 15kts with gusts to
20-25kts. Winds will then subside this evening to 5-10kts while
remaining out of the south.




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