Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121729

1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.

Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.

For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning

Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more

Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Forecast still on track for areas of thunderstorm activity north of
the terminals through the evening hours. As the boundary sags
southward winds will eventually go light and variable. Concurrent
with the surface boundary could be periods of thunderstorm activity,
most likely during the late evening to overnight period. Confidence
in TS actually affecting the terminal is higher at KSTJ, with
confidence in TS at the terminal dropping quite a bit at KMCI and
KMKC. Will continue to carry VCTS group for now, and if convection
looks like it will make it into the terminals address it with future
forecast or AMD. Another concern for a brief 2-3 hour period of MVFR
CIGs also exists post frontal, but the saturated layer appears to be
shallow and short-lived, so left it out of this forecast.




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