Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 PM CST THU FEB 23 2017

Main focus in the short term will be precipitation chances this
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching surface low. The
slower and more southward track of the low has prevented the sfc
warm front from making much progress into the CWA today, leaving
only elevated frontogenesis and WAA as support for light rain
showers. Models indicate a small amount of instability above the
surface inversion; however, thus far it has not been enough to
support much vertical growth or lightning. Have maintained a
possibility of showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70,
and primarily focused north of HWY-36, especially this evening
when hi-res models have consistently indicated the development of
more robust showers/storms on the northwest side of the surface
low over north central KS. Any storms that develop in that area
could trek northeast into our CWA and have the potential to become
strong -- albeit elevated -- as the system becomes more stacked,
temperatures aloft decrease, and instability builds northward this
evening. Deep layer shear, even disregarding the lowest 1 km,
will be on the order of 50-60 kts and would support rotation
should any more robust cells develop. There is also a weak signal
for showers developing closer to the surface low (further south)
which will trek directly through the CWA and through the KC area;
however, shallower lapse rates and a much stronger cap, as well
as weaker shear, will likely keep these showers unimpressive
should they develop.

After the surface low pushes through the CWA tonight, colder air
and moisture will begin to sweep in behind. Light snow is possible
as far south as I-70, but any accumulations should be confined to
the MO/IA border and will still add up to less than an inch. Low
temperatures will fall into the 20s area-wide Friday night, which
may damage any early-sprouting blossoms. Temperatures will remain
seasonable on Saturday, then will begin a slow climb into the
beginning of the work week.

Previous runs of the GFS kept cold air lingering longer into
Sunday, which was a bit of a concern as a shortwave trough digs
into the region on Sunday; however, the most recent GFS run has
come into better agreement with the other models and brings
temperatures into the mid to upper 40s by Sunday afternoon. That
shortwave trough may bring a light, slushy rain/snow mix into the
region early Sunday morning before temperatures aloft begin to
warm, but most precipitation is focused where temperatures are
warmer, and rising temperatures would melt any accumulation
quickly during the day. A few other weak waves follow behind into
next week, but no good chances for precipitation ever come
together over the CWA and temperatures overall continue to look
above normal through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017

Ceilings will be a bit tricky over the next few hours as thicker
cirrostratus masks developing MVFR cu/stratus, especially in the
KC area. Have tempo`ed MVFR ceilings for the time being at KMKC
and KMCI, but will need to monitor trends to see if bases lift
a bit as higher ceilings depart and low-level mixing increases.
Light rain showers will continue to lift northward, possibly
impacting KSTJ over the next few hours but not significantly
reducing visibilities or otherwise impacting aviation. Surface
winds will continue to gust out of the east northeast this
afternoon, then a cold front will sweep through between 04z and
07z, veering winds sharply to the west northwest. A few isolated
showers or a rogue thunderstorm are possible along that frontal
boundary late this evening, but the probability is to low to
warrant mention in the TAF. Stratus will wrap into the region
following the front, reducing ceilings to at least 2 kft between
06z-12z but possibly quite a bit lower, especially as the morning
progresses on Friday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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