Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260956
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
456 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Today - Wednesday:

Vorticity max which lifted out of West TX yesterday and helped
generate the MCC that roared through east TX has attempted to merge
with the NE/KS upper trough. Hard to say if this process has been
successful. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity max
currently over east central KS while allowing a separate h7
vorticity max to rotate east through the NE/KS upper trough and
across northern MO this afternoon.

Near term portion of forecast is tied to radar trends which shows a
fairly expansive region of tropical type showers with a few
thunderstorms. The entire region of rain is starting to lift
northeast. Have followed the trend of the HRRR and gone with
categorical PoPs for much of northern and west central MO this
morning. Think we`ll see scattered afternoon convection over
northern MO in response to the above mentioned h7 vorticity max
spinning through that area. A weak cold front/convergent zone is
expected to drift south through the CWA tonight and will provide
additional lift for scattered convection.

Also watching area of loosely organized convection coming out of NM
and into the TX Panhandle. Can see some rotation in water vapor
imagery. NAM and SREF seem to have best handle of this feature and
they both lift it northeast today. Am expecting to see scattered
convection reform with this feature and likely affect at least the
far southern counties this evening/overnight. So have upped PoPs
this region.

Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to
weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.

Thursday - Weekend:

Very unsettled pattern as upper flow backs to the southwest and a
series of weak embedded disturbances lift northeast through the
Central Plains. Eventually a broad upper trough will shift east out
of the Central Rockies over the weekend and enhance precipitation
chances for at least Saturday. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will once again flow northward and gradually result in a tropical
environment by Thursday night. Medium range models have been hitting
the PoPs hard with only minor run-to-run changes. See no reason to
deviate from likely PoPs during this period. Due to recent heavy
rains leaving sub-soil saturated will need to be watchful for
flooding issues as progged soundings once again are suggestive of
warm-rain processes.

Have some concern that the model PoPs are too low as both the
GFS/ECMWF still have the upper trough just passing through MO. Think
the model blended PoPs have not picked up on this. Sunday is looking
a bit chilly since we`ll be under an extensive cloud shield with
scattered convection.

Monday:

Finally should see the start of drying out as the upper trough
should have passed east of the region with subsidence overspreading
the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift north northwest over
the next few hours, impacting all TAF sites through 06z at IXD to
07z at MKC and MCI, to 08z or later at STJ. A few showers and
possibly an embedded storm could sweep back through the area between
09z and 12z, but this is less likely and coverage should be less,
warranting a VCTS group for this period at all locations. By 12z, all
sites should return to VFR, and variable wind direction due to storm
outflow will end, allowing winds to increase out of the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
     011-012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin






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