Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2016

An expanding area of stratus has developed ahead of a quasi-
stationary boundary stemming from a surface low over southwestern
Kansas. Mid-level moisture has increased sufficiently ahead of the
boundary for a relatively thin layer of stratus to develop, though
this should begin to dissipate as temperatures increase throughout
the day. Aside from lingering cloud cover across northeastern
Missouri, much of the area will see plenty of sunshine Friday.

The overhead pattern will undergo only minor change today with zonal
flow persisting until the next storm system begins to impact the area
throughout the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will increase slightly
today ahead of a deepening upper low, now beginning to work its way
over the southwestern CONUS. This feature will continue to dive
southeast and ultimately center near the Baja Peninsula as a cut off
low. A shortwave will eject out of the deeper low as it pushes
southeast, and this wave will cross through the Northern and Central
Plains Saturday into Sunday. Shortwave energy stemming from the
cutoff low to the southwest, in addition to the shortwave feature
crossing overhead the local area, will provide reasonable chances of
precipitation beginning as early as Saturday afternoon, with
increasing chances during the overnight period Saturday into Sunday.

With regard to precipitation type Saturday night, will likely take
the form of mostly rain across the area. With only a brief period of
moisture present in the ice-bearing layer early Sunday morning, not
expecting much in the way of snowfall, especially considering a warm
thermal profile in the lower levels. With that said, could still see
a rain/snow mix across areas north of the I-70 corridor,
particularly across northeastern Missouri as 850 hPa temperatures
continue to undergo a brief cooling period as the shortwave pushes
through the region. Surface temperatures will cool to slightly below
normal in the lower 40s Saturday before rebounding into the upper
40s by Sunday.

Will then see a brief dry period Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning before the southwestern cut off low is reabsorbed back into
the main upper-level pattern. As this feature becomes an open
shortwave, will see precipitation chances return from the south as
early as Monday evening through Tuesday along the backside of a
surface low. Models are in reasonable agreement as to the position
of the surface low, generally expected to cross over southeastern
Missouri Tuesday morning. As of now, rain looks to transition to a
wintry mix Tuesday morning, mostly across areas north of the Missouri
River. Better forcing will remain southeast of the area, though will
need to monitor the progged position of this feature and the thermal
profile over the local area to consider the extent of associated
wintry precipitation.

A much colder air mass will then arrive Wednesday as a deep upper low
dives into the Southern Plains. The GFS suggests a slightly earlier
arrival compared to the ECMWF, and both solutions heavily dissolve in
agreement toward the latter period. However, there is increasing
confidence in an arctic air mass settling over the region Wednesday
night into Thursday, and current temperature trends may need to be
lowered closer to that time. Could see precipitation form ahead of
the attendant cold front throughout Wednesday before a dry trend
redevelops across the region as the upper low enters the
northeastern CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2016

VFR conditions through the period. High clouds will move in this
afternoon, with denser mid/high cloudiness overnight into Saturday.
Northeasterly winds will become southeasterly by Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Blair



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