Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 142023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A rather raw spring day was experienced across the area with periods
of light snow and temperatures well below seasonal normals. Light
snowfall will remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon
over the far eastern forecast area, although little/no accumulation
is expected. The back edge of an expansive area of mid-level clouds
generally stretched along Interstate 35 as of early this afternoon.
Skies are expected to clear for most locations in the next 1-2
hours. This will allow a brief opportunity for temperatures to
respond, with highs still expected to reach the lower 40s.

The cold temperatures anticipated for tonight remains the most
immediate focus. Skies will start off clear this evening and
northwesterly wind speeds will relax shortly after sunset, allowing
for strong radiational cooling to begin. However, several
operational models have been consistent in bringing in a scattered
to broken deck of clouds around 5kft between 03-12Z. In areas that
experience this cloud cover the longest, this would potentially help
mitigate the worst of the lowest temperatures overnight. That said,
most areas should still experience low temperatures between 25 to 30
degrees tonight. Areas that encounter the most cloud cover will be
in the upper range of those temperatures, and this can make a
substantial difference to the potential damage of vegetation. A
freeze warning remains in effect for much of the overnight time
period.

A warming trend is expected Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper
pattern becomes more progressive in response to the next approaching
system. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s, with 60s by
Wednesday. Models for the Thursday/Friday system have been more
consistent with regards to timing/placement and slightly warming the
vertical temperature profile, keeping most of the precipitation in
the form of rain. The highest probability of rain is currently
projected on Thursday night. The weekend will feature near normal
temperatures and the next chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday,
although considerable uncertainty remains to the precipitation
specifics.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect to see VFR conditions from this point forward. Skies should
gradually clear this afternoon/evening. A few clouds near 5kft may
move back into the area overnight before clearing around sunrise.
Otherwise, wind speeds will relax shortly after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair






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