Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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574
FXUS63 KEAX 222055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

The surface low continues to slowly move northeast across the
MO/IA border. This has brought a rain/snow mix through the area,
mainly along and south of HWY 36. This round of precipitation will
continue curving to the northeast through the afternoon. A brief
break in the precipitation will follow before a second round moves
through. This round may start off as a rain/snow mix, but it
shouldn`t take long before it becomes all snow. The high-res
models suggest this round will dissipate as it moves over our
area, resulting in a short time of only snow. This and the warmer
ground (from this weekend`s warming) will make it hard for snow to
accumulate. Very little if any snow accumulation is expected
around the KC metro with around one half of an inch possible in
far northwest MO and far northeast KS. The precipitation is
forecast to exit the area overnight tonight. A cold front is also
expected to move through the forecast area with the precipitation.
This will shift winds to the northwest. In addition, winds will
become gusty behind the front. Winds should be sustained between
20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds should start decreasing
around sunrise tomorrow as the surface low moves further away from
the area, allowing the pressure gradient to relax. A weaker
shortwave trough is scheduled to move through the area on the
heels of the exiting system Tuesday night. There is a slight
chance for flurries in far northern MO as this feature moves
overhead, but the best chance seems to be in IA.

High pressure will move in behind the shortwave, resulting in dry
conditions for the remainder of the work week. Additionally,
surface winds will shift back to the south, providing us with
another warming trend. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in
the upper 50s. Another low pressure system will move through the
area though on Friday night, bringing a cold front through the
area and rain chances. Right now, the ingredients won`t quite come
together until the cold front is halfway through the forecast
area; therefore, only areas south and east of I-35 in MO and KS
should see the rain. The front and rain should move out of the
area Saturday morning, leaving the rest of the weekend dry with
temperatures in the 40s as high pressure returns.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

A surface low is currently making its way through the area,
bringing us low end MVFR with some areas of IFR ceilings. The IFR
ceilings should be short-lived for areas in the KC metro, with
them lasting a little longer in northern MO where the center of
the low is moving. In addition, precip is falling as a rain/snow
mix. The rain/snow mix chances will last through the evening
across the entire area. Winds will start to shift to the
northwest as a cold front moves through. Winds will also become
gusty across the area behind the front. Winds should diminish
early tomorrow morning. MVFR ceilings will last through most of
the period, potentially lifting to VFR at the tail-end.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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