Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231132

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Scattered showers and storms finally made their way into the
forecast area within the last couple of hours. They have formed
along a cold front, which is working its way southeast. We could see
some small hail out of a couple of storms, but mainly expect
general thunderstorms. Storms will continue to move southeast with
the cold front and should be out of the area by late morning.
Moving in behind the storms and cold front, is a surface high
pressure. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier air for
the next several days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with lows in the 50s. Both the highs and lows are below normal for
this time of year.

The broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes, which is
influencing our weather this morning, will not move much over the
next couple of days. This may bring storm chances back into the
area Sunday into Monday, as upper level energy moves overhead on
the trough`s southern periphery. There also looks to be some warm
air advection creeping into the area, supporting some storm
development. There is fairly good agreement among long range
models, but the 00Z NAM doesn`t show much in the way of warm air
advection or precipitation. Will have to wait and see how future
model runs handle this timeframe. If storms do develop, there`s
not much in the way of CAPE right now, so potential storms will
likely be sub-severe. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will move
over the region, while at the surface, we transition into the warm
sector of a surface low developing in the Northern Plains. This
will increase temperatures into the upper 80s for the end of next
week. Mid-week, multiple upper level shortwave troughs will move
overhead, resulting in multiple rounds of storms through the end
of next week. Still too early for specifics, but there is
potential for some of this activity to be severe.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the period with the exception of
scattered MVFR ceilings along the cold front which is currently
making its way southeast across the forecast area. Thunderstorms
are also accompanying the cold front in central MO. They will
move out of the area with the cold front in the next couple of
hours or so. The main concern for this period is the gusty winds
behind the cold front. The north-northwesterly winds will likely
be sustained around 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts from now
through the evening. The north-northwesterly winds will become
light after sunset.




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