Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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469
FXUS63 KEAX 192321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018

Robust cold front is currently draped across the forecast area,
stretched from Unionville, MO south-southwestward through Butler,
MO. Drizzle and rain showers can be found on either side of the
front, with a few embedded lightning strikes observed within the
warm sector. At this point, the front has slowed down and is in
the process of stalling, not anticipated to make it much further
south and east from where it currently lies. For this evening
through overnight, the primary concern will be how far south and
east the sub-freezing temperatures get, but with the cold front
expected to retrograde and make a brief retreat back north and
westward, it should keep the north side of KC warm enough to
mitigate any significant icing issues. With temperatures already
hovering around freezing at MCI, the other factor that should help
mitigate significant icing issues will be how warm the surfaces,
namely roads, are at the moment. By tomorrow morning though, NW MO
and NE KS, at the very least, should anticipate slippery
conditions, with a very close eye being kept on the Northland and
other locations along but just outside of the advisory area.
Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory already in place for north
of the KC metro remains in effect without a southward or eastward
expansion, but will be kept closely monitored to see if
additional headlines are needed later on.

As an upper-level trough inches closer to the region tomorrow,
it`ll give the front the push it needs to continue its eastward
march it started today. However, with plentiful atmospheric
moisture to work with (PWATs well above an inch, which is well
above normal for mid-February) combining with the necessary lift
lingering in the area, precip chances look to stick around for
much of the forecast area through much of tomorrow, with all
precip chances exiting by early Wednesday.

Through the remainder of the forecast period, although there are
inherent model discrepancies in the long-term, the general
consensus is that the area remains locked in a fairly active
pattern, keeping mentionable periodic precip chances in the
forecast. The next system to watch will be a developing low
ejecting out of the southern Rockies by the end of the week, with
the "will it, won`t it" game being played again with respect to
wintry precipitation. Daytime highs appear to be supportive area-
wide for purely liquid precip, but nighttime temps could throw a
wrench into the forecast.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018

IFR conditions will persist through the evening hours, with
ceiling heights becoming LIFR overnight. Through Monday evening,
most of the precip across the area will remain just south and east
of the terminals, though still expecting light freezing drizzle
as surface temps continue to cool. After 06Z, surface temps will
warm as the frontal boundary retrogrades, thus minimizing freezing
precip. However, a secondary front will arrive early Tuesday
morning, bringing with it sub-freezing temps coincident with
increased precip chances. Thus, a period of freezing rain is
possible Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. IFR conditions
should then persist as precip ends early in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MOZ001>005-011-012-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Welsh



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