Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

No significant changes to ongoing forecast, with light snow tracking
across northern Missouri likely to drop another 1" to 2" especially
north of the Missouri River. Snow chances further south appear to be
decreasing, and may take snow accumulation out altogether for areas
near and south of the US 50 corridor.

Big concern is going to be the winds and rapid drop in temperature,
both of which could yield significant travel concerns as blowing snow
develops and flash freezing occurs on elevated and untreated
roadways. Could even see some near-blizzard conditions over far
northern Missouri with winds gusting to 40 mph and visibilities down
to near a half mile in snow and blowing snow this afternoon. The
heavy/wet nature of the snow that fell earlier should prevent
visibilities from reaching blizzard conditions, but this will also
increase the risk for power outages over northern Missouri where the
strong winds will combine with several inches of heavy west snow that
is weighing on trees and power lines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Short-term focus remains on the next 12-18 hours with ongoing winter
storm. While precipitation type is varied across the forecast area
due to the variables of a near-surface warm layer, dynamic cooling
and precip rate, the general theme has been mainly rain well south of
Interstate 70, a rain-snow mix along the Interstate 70 corridor, and
all snow along and north of Highway 36 where notable snowfall amounts
of 5-7 inches have already been reported in some areas.
Precipitation will continue to overspread the area through mid-
morning before some breaks in coverage and decrease in rate intensity
are expected along and south of I-70. However, occasional
precipitation in the form of snow is anticipated along and north of
Highway 36 through much of the day. As a secondary vorticity maximum,
currently seen on water vapor over the central High Plains, drops
into region, precipitation rates may increase. At the same time, snow
ratios are expected to increase later in the day. Confidence exists
that an additional 2-4 inches of snow will be possible generally
along and north of Highway 36 from sunrise into early evening with
precip wrapping around the backside of the low. This will bring
storm total snowfall during the entire event of 5-10 inches in the
warning area. Elsewhere, accumulating snowfall is possible, but with
decreasing amounts with southward extent. This includes the north
side of the KC metro area, where 0.5-1.5 inches of snowfall have
already been reported, with another inch of snow possible. As for
headlines, adjusted the warning and advisory slightly south to best
reflect current observations/reports and anticipated trends.

In addition to the snow, a strengthening pressure gradient will
result in increasing wind speeds, with northerly winds on the order
of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph late this morning into the early
evening. These winds, in combination with the already fallen snow
and anticipated more powdery snow, will result in blowing and some
drifting of snowfall, reducing visibility and making travel
treacherous. Wind gusts with the wet snow accumulated in tree
branches may also cause some stress and breaking of tree limbs.
Lastly, cold air will quickly advect into the area this afternoon,
with temperatures rapidly falling. Wet or slushy roadways may have
the potential to quickly refreeze, resulting in additional travel
troubles.

The snow is expected to end by midnight with bitterly cold
temperatures by Monday morning, with lows in the single digits to
teens. Much quieter weather is expected on Monday, with much of the
area remaining precipitation free despite a quick-moving upper wave
passing to the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

A cool northwest flow will be in place across the nations
mid-section by Tuesday. However, despite the northwest flow,
temperatures Tuesday will be on a bit of a rebound as a southerly
flow at the surface lifts a weak warm front into northern Missouri.
This will bring a quick bout of above normal temperatures for areas
along and south of the Missouri River, though areas farther north
will likely remain near seasonally normal --mid to upper 30s--. The
warm weather wont last long though as a trough swinging through the
Canadian Plains will send another surge of cold air south for the
later half of the work week. Next surge of cold air is advertised as
a 1036mb high; so it will be cold. Continued to keep slight chance
to chance POPs for snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. ECMWF is now
lining up a bit more with the GFS in advertising some light
precipitation in that time period. This looks reasonable given the
strength of the frontogenic forcing expected to occur on the leading
edge of the surface high. Confidence on accumulations is rather low
due to concerns about available moisture, but flurries will likely
be a minimum. Cold temperatures will return to the region behind
the cold front and light snow Wednesday. This will likely allow
overnight lows to drop into the single digits in areas north of the
Missouri River early Thursday morning. However, there is hope for
next weekend as a modest shortwave ridge helps push warmer
temperatures back into the Central Plains by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Several more hours of light snow expected to continue across areas
north of an IXD to COU line this afternoon, possibly into early this
evening. Conditions are likely to remain IFR through this time,
although any additional accumulation on runways should only be an
inch or less, mainly north of the Missouri River. Winds will increase
significantly this afternoon with occasional gusts in excess of 30 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-
     102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ001-
     011>013-020>023-028>033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ002>008-
     014>017-024-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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