Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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879
FXUS63 KEAX 221735
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2017

Isentropic ascent in the 300K to 310K layer, ahead of an upper level
trough sliding south through Plains, will lead to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms today. Regional radar imagery early this
morning is showing precipitation across north central KS/south
central NE and moving east. Forecast soundings from across the area
show a substantial dry layer from about 700MB and below. It may take
a little longer for precipitation to develop but it looks like in
the 12Z to 15Z window across northwestern MO and spreading east with
time. Weak instability and weak shear suggest a very limited risk
for any severe weather. But a freezing level of around 8000 ft
during the afternoon may enable small hail in the strongest cells.

For Tuesday, the upper trough will be situated overhead. Given the
cold air aloft, with a freezing level down to as low as 6000 ft, the
200 to 300 J/kg of MUCAPE will likely be enough to get scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms again. The strongest cells may be
able to produce small hail given the low freezing levels. But
again, the threat of any severe weather is very low. The upper low
will continue to influence the area on Wednesday, having only
shifted slightly to the east. So a similar scenario to Tuesday,
but mainly confined to the eastern half of the forecast area, is
expected.

Once this system moves away to the east, shortwave ridging will move
into the area, resulting in a return to normal temperatures for
Thursday and slightly above normal temperatures for the rest of the
forecast. A weak shortwave trough should move across the area
Friday, bringing another chance for showers and storms. Then for the
rest of the weekend, we should be in broad southwesterly flow, which
may bring multiple chances for precipitation. The GFS is more
prolific with the precipitation chances through Sunday, whereas the
ECMWF and the Canadian show drying conditions into Sunday. So there
better chance for Sunday turning out to be dry than rainy at this
point.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017

Scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected for
most of the period across the area. Showers will stay mainly north
of the MO river for most of the afternoon and then will move into
areas south of the MO river late in the afternoon through the
evening. In addition, a second round of showers is possible late
tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Everyone should
see VFR conditions until the cold front moves through, dropping
ceilings into the MVFR category for the entire area. There is a
chance ceilings will lift back to VFR near the end of the period
but confidence on timing is low right now. They should lift to VFR
at some point though tomorrow afternoon. Winds will veer to the
northwest late tonight with the cold frontal passage. Wind speeds
should pick up tomorrow afternoon but most likely won`t be until
just after the end of this period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Grana



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