Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270508

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 324 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

After today the weather across the local forecast area of eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri will be rather benign with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures dominating the forecast
over the next week. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows us a
ridge in place to our west with the axis across the Rocky Mountains
and a shortwave trough downstream of the ridge axis, sliding east
across the Mississippi River this afternoon. The surface reflection
of the trough, a cold front, is presently sweeping southeast through
eastern Kansas and Missouri; currently along a line from
Kansas City to Kirksville.

Despite the cold front sweeping southeast today, we expect neither
more rain or even cold temperatures thanks to the ridge to our west.
As the front moves through overnight we might see clouds clear and a
bit of fog early Thursday morning, but otherwise we will just see a
wind shift late this afternoon and this evening --from southwest to
northwest--. However, the surface high behind the front is not very
large so winds will swing back to the south by Thursday afternoon
allowing temperatures to rebound for Thursday afternoon into the 60s
and 70s. Otherwise, as we look forward through the weekend, the
western ridge will expand east but flattens out as multiple fast
moving shortwave troughs continue to ride up and over the ridge. The
ridge placement will keep the storm track well to our north through
the weekend into the middle of next work week. As a result, expect
afternoon highs and overnight lows to both run well above normal
through next week. Friday might be the warmest day thanks to the
sunshine and south winds ahead of another front that will have formed
across the northern Plains, helping boost afternoon highs into the
low 80s. We are not quite forecasting record high temperatures for
Friday --record high for the 28th in KC is 84 degrees from 1944--
but we are close.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Low clouds that were over area terminals at 00z have now pushed to
the east and a thickening canopy of upper cirrus is now spilling in
overhead. Despite this...high moisture content in the boundary layer
will likely allow for developing VSBY restrictions during the early
morning hours. For chance for IFR looks to be confined to
STJ and IXD...with MVFR likely elsewhere. Will continue to monitor
trends and update as necessary. Otherwise...expect improving
conditions during the mid/late morning hours with VFR prevailing
through the remainder of the fcst period.


KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001-002-



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