Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211124

524 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

Issued at 333 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Short Term (Today through Tuesday night):

The short range looks to be active as an upper level trough, which
is evident on water vapor imagery moving through the Pacific
Northwest this morning, approaches the area tonight. Out ahead of
the system today, WAA will be ongoing increasing and deepening low
level moisture into the area. This will make for yet another cloudy
day. There will also be the potential for patchy drizzle as deeper
moisture is introduced into the area. Despite cloud cover and
drizzle, modest southerly flow should help temperatures rise into
the low to mid 40s. Tonight the upper level trough will move through
the northern Plains. An associated cold front will extend southward
through the Plains pushing into the eastern Plains by early Monday
morning. Showers will develop out ahead of the front and rain will
overspread the area tonight. The cold front will push through the
CWA Monday afternoon continuing rain chances across the CWA through
the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 40s to near 50 ahead of
the cold front.

The upper level system will develop a closed low which will move
from the northern Plains into western Iowa Monday into Monday night.
By Monday night the cold front pushes east of the area with just
some light rain persisting over the eastern CWA. On Tuesday, the
upper level low over western Iowa will move northeast into the
western Great Lakes. Wrap around snow will be possible across
northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas however much of the CWA
should remain dry slotted on the day Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be
near season normals in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Tuesday night
the digging upper level trough will slowly move through the CWA.
However, a secondary upper low will develop in the base of the upper
trough over the southern Ozarks and move northeast into southeastern
Missouri. This will bring the chance for light snow across the
eastern CWA on the back side of the low. Little to no accumulation
is expected.

Long Range (Wednesday through Saturday):

Models are in fair agreement through this timeframe however model
consistency from run to run has been lacking over the past few days
leading to a diminished confidence. In any case, both of the GFS
show the upper level trough, which brought the area precipitation
early the week, pushing to the east into the Ohio and Tennessee
River Valleys on Wednesday. This will leave the area in cool
northwest flow aloft and highs in the mid to upper 30s will
represent that. On Thursday, a weak upper level trough will move
from the northern Rockies into the western Plains. This will push a
cold front into the Plains states. Southerly flow out ahead of the
front should make for pleasant temperatures for the Christmas
holiday with highs in the 40s. The moisture associated with this
system will be behind the front. This will bring the chance for
light snow or flurries into the area Christmas night into Friday.
The best chance for precipitation however, appears to reside north
of the area in the vicinity of the better upper level support. Highs
behind the front on Friday will be cool ranging from the lower 30s
to near 40 with cool temperatures continuing into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft will prevail thru the TAF period (with MKC just
abv 2kft this afternoon). Light drizzle will be possible at the
terminals but no vsby restrictions are expected. Tonight showers will
develop west of the terminals well out ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expect showers to move into the terminals btn 06Z-08Z with
contd MVFR cigs and vsbys reduced to 5SM in showers. Winds will be
out of the south btn 10-15kts thru tonight when they will increase to
15-20kts with gusts to 25kts at MCI.




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