Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 062340
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Issued at 351 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Clouds have quickly eroded this afternoon with winds increasing from
the south. These winds will bring much warmer temperatures to the
region on Friday. 925 hPa temps rising to near 5C will support highs
in the middle to upper 50s for most areas. Deep mixing above this
level would yield temperatures as high as the lower to middle 60s,
but increasing high clouds will cut back on the full heating
In a split upper flow pattern, a weak upper wave will track across
the Upper Midwest Friday night and send a cold front into the area.
Weak low-level lift behind the front will support areas of light
precipitation Friday night especially across northern MO and far
northeast KS. Thermal profiles support a rain/snow mix with this
activity although there could be areas of sleet and even freezing
rain mixed in. Any snow/sleet/ice amounts would be very light, and
didn`t feel the threat for freezing rain was high enough to include
in the forecast at this point.
On Saturday a secondary wave will track out of the Rockies and into
the Southern Plains. Interactions with this wave and an elevated
boundary over the Ozarks will likely bring a second wave of
precipitation into areas south of Highway 50 during the day. Thermal
profiles will support a rain/snow mix early in the day before
temperatures rise above freezing and cause precipitation to change to
mainly rain by afternoon. Some areas could see a few tenths of an
inch of snow early on. Interestingly, the past few runs of the NAM and
SREF have been advertising a slightly stronger upper wave that tracks
further north and brings heavier precipitation as far north as I-70
and the Missouri River. Didn`t jump on these northerly solutions
just yet, but it bears watching since precipitation spreading as far
north as I-70 on Saturday would have a better chance of falling as
snow, some of which could accumulate.
Despite what happens on Saturday, Sunday and Monday still look on
track to see a nice warming trend with temps in the 50s on Sunday and
the low/mid 60s on Monday. Another front moving into the area Monday
night will bring temperatures back closer to normal for the
remainder of the period. Low pressure tracking along the front could
bring some light precipitation to the area Monday night and Tuesday
especially over northern MO into Iowa. Stayed closer to the more
consistent GFS solution for this time frame which does not favor
significant precipitation. The 12Z ECMWF, which brings a major winter
storm into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday,
is an outlier solution and was discounted.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Considerable high level cloud cover during the forecast. Otherwise,
VFR conditions across west central MO and east central KS. A cold
front will slide southward through northwest MO Friday afternoon,
reaching KMCI/KMKC by the end of the forecast. MVFR cigs will lag
the frontal passage by several hours.
Haze expected to reform over northwest MO and northeast KS this
evening with local MVFR fog possible, including KSTJ.
Remain just outside LLWS threshold overnight as winds just above
the nocturnal inversion stay within a 30-40kt range.