Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
238 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 AM CST WED FEB 14 2018

GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics band showing low clouds advancing
northward this morning as southerly flow continues to increase along
the western periphery of a Mid-Atlantic sfc ridge. These low
clouds will present a few challenges for today`s fcst, however
most available near-term guidance suggests these clouds will burn
off/scatter out as the late morning hours continue on. After this
happens, main item of note today will be the warm temperatures as
most locations should warm into the lower 60s by mid/late
afternoon. Quick look at 850-hPa anomaly data suggest todays 850
temps will be 1-2 standard deviations above normal, with these
increasing even further tomorrow ahead of tomorrow afternoon`s
cold front. All told, the warmest air seen in quite sometime will
take hold of the area for 2 short days.

In terms on sensible wx impacts, not much is seen on the horizon
truthfully until early next week. Models continue to highlight
light QPF across eastern portions of the fcst area on Thursday out
ahead of the front, however this activity will be very spotty in
nature and should have very little impact in reality. Following
tomorrow`s fropa, reality will quickly return to the area
beginning tomorrow night as cold air sweeps southward as high
pressure builds down across the Plains/Midwest. Fri`s high temps
will be noticeably cooler with low to mid 30s expected for most
locations. Fortunately however, temps will rebound quickly by
Saturday as southerly winds quickly return to the area. Shwrs
will be possible through the day on Saturday as an open wave moves
through the area, however the latest ECMWF solution keeps the
majority of our region dry through the day. Based on this, have
decreased pops just a tad, and would not be surprised if this
trend continues with future updates. The warming trend will
continue right into the start of next week with low 50s again
possible by Monday out ahead of the next weather feature which
will bring returning chances for shwr activity from Monday
afternoon through at least Tuesday. Indications right now suggest
the bulk of this precipitation will be in the form of rain, and
any rain we can muster right now should be appreciated
considering how dry we`ve been lately.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

This period will be a difficult forecast as moist warm air moves
north into our area this morning. The TAFs will start out VFR but
as cooling temperature meet warming dewpoints the chance for fog
formation increases. Currently it appears the fog chances may be
best along the Missouri River north of the KC Metro area, but
confidence on exact positioning is low. The second issue that
will occur with this push of moisture from the south will be a
low IFR ceiling as surface temperatures warm after sunrise. This
will increase winds and lift any fog into a stratus deck keeping
IFR conditions through the mid morning. Eventually enough warming
will occur that the lower levels will start to clear out from the
ground up lifting IFR ceilings to MVFR ceilings. These MVFR
ceilings are expected to clear quickly with VFR conditions and a
strong sustained southerly wind in the 10-15kt range. This wind
will start to dissipate around sunrise with VFR conditions for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Barham



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