Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

Despite some gusty winds this afternoon, the weather has been
rather quiet and pleasant, and will continue to be through
tonight. However, rain chances return tomorrow into Tuesday as a
shortwave crosses the Central Plains, followed by a fropa
overnight Monday into early Tuesday. While severe potential
overall looks relatively low tomorrow, enough instability, along
with modest lapse rates and 0-6km shear, look to be in place
across the NW portions of the forecast area to allow for some
storms to become feisty ahead of the front. On Tuesday, a
secondary low will develop on the backside of the low currently
spinning over the Great Lakes region, allowing for it to combine
with enough atmospheric moisture to produce additional shower/iso.
thunder chances behind the aforementioned fropa. For the middle
of the week, it looks like it should be relatively dry for most,
although counties in the eastern portions of the forecast area
could see some pop-up activity as the secondary low takes its time
exiting the area.

By the end of this week into next weekend, an unsettled pattern
emerges on the models, with an interesting feature to potentially
watch on Saturday. Both the 12Z ECMWF and GFS depict a complex
traversing the region, although the spatial track shown on both
are significantly different (the GFS showing its passage to the
north, the ECMWF to the south and a bit more subtly displayed).
It`s of course far too out temporally to hang any hats on but
interesting to watch nonetheless.

Temperatures through the middle of the week look to remain below
normal for this time of year with rises anticipated toward the
latter half of the week. With the anticipated wet pattern though,
the activity and associated cloud cover could easily keep temps
from rising too much above normal.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

VFR conditions to prevail for at least the first half of the TAF
period, if not for the entire period. The question will be how
low ceilings get when showers/thunderstorms creep into the area
Monday morning from the west, but at this point, ceilings look to
remain in the VFR category.

Winds this afternoon will continue to gust out of the WNW through
around sunset tonight, becoming light and variable overnight. Look
for winds to shift more southwesterly tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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