Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 020759
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
259 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The main concern in the short term will revolve around morning
thunderstorms and the possible affects on temperatures today. The
aforementioned thunderstorms have developed in an area of isentropic
ascent which will weaken through the mid morning hours with showers
diminishing. It is possible an additional half an inch to one inch
could fall across northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern
Kansas where these storms have developed. There will be additional
cloud cover that will exist over the northwestern CWA through the
morning hours however, skies should clear this afternoon and
temperatures should quickly warm. Highs across the CWA today will
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a
upper level ridge builds over the area. The ridge axis will reside
over the area on Thursday and Friday keeping conditions dry and
allowing highs to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge
will begin to weaken on Saturday as a upper level trough digs into
the west coast and moves into the intermountain west. Conditions,
however, should remain dry and warm on Saturday with highs remaining
in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Sunday, the upper level trough will move into the northern High
Plains forcing a cold front into the Plains. Warm air advection out
ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
90s despite an increase in cloud cover. Sunday night the upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and the cold front will
approach the area with thunderstorms moving into the area from the
west. This marks the beginning of an active weather pattern across
the area. By Monday, the upper level trough lifts northeastward into
Canada allowing the cold front to stall across the CWA. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
middle of the work week as several upper level shortwaves move
through the area sparking convection along the stalled front.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Showers and storms have already begun to develop across NW Missouri,
slowly making their way eastward. STJ will be the terminal most
likely impacted out of the four terminals, warranting the inclusion
of a TEMPO mention for this TAF issuance. The storms though should
remain relatively low-impact to STJ with no significant reductions in
visbys or ceilings. Less certain of any activity making it to MCI but
have included a VCTS mention nonetheless since storms are anticipated
to come fairly close to the MCI terminal area. MKC and IXD should
remain out of the way of any direct or vicinity impacts. The
convection will dissipate and clear out by midday Wednesday, leaving
VFR conditions to continue through the rest of this TAF period.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase as sunrise approaches,
likely in the 10-15 knot range throughout much of the day at all four
terminals, slackening around sunset Wednesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg


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