Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202001

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Issued at 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

The showers and storms have finally exited the entire area. The
surface low and upper level low responsible are currently moving
north-northeast through the Plains. The cloud cover associated
with the low pressure system has been slow to move out, but it
should exit the area by this evening, leaving everyone with clear
skies. Lows tonight should dip into the 40s.

A surface high will settle into the Plains behind the surface low
tonight from the northwest. This will dry us out for the rest of the
weekend. Highs Sunday through Tuesday should be in the upper 60s and
low 70s. Monday morning, a positively tilted low pressure system
will make its way through the area from the northwest. This will
provide our next chance of showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.
There is the potential for marginally severe weather with this
system but the cold front appears weak and CAPE and shear values are
not overly impressive at this time either. The cold front and
associated low pressure will move through and exit the area Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front Wednesday,
keeping highs only in the low to mid 60s. In addition, a surface
high and upper level ridge will move over the Central US drying
things out for the remainder of the work week. Thursday, the
surface high will slide east of the area shifting winds to the
south, allowing temperatures to rise back into the 70s.
Temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s and potentially stormy
weather return next weekend, but there is still disagreement among
models about precipitation timing and location.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

The surface low has been taking its time leaving the area, so MVFR
ceilings are expected through the late afternoon/evening time frame.
Clouds should generally clear from south to north. Once the
clouds start to lift, we should see a fairly quick clearing. VFR
conditions will then prevail for the remainder of the period.
Winds will be a little gusty this afternoon, but should decrease
around sunset. Winds will shift overnight from the southwest to
the west-northwest as the surface low exits and a surface high
settles in behind it.




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