Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301720
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1120 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 240 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

In the near-term...a broad upper low continues to spin across
southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin this morning with an elongated
trough axis extending all the way down to northern Mexico. Meanwhile
closer to home...pronounced midlevel trough axis rotating along the
southern periphery of the main upper low now rotating through our
area with surface winds responding accordingly as latest obs show
brisk northwest winds off to our northwest. A stratus deck
associated with cooler temps aloft now also beginning to overspread
the area...marking the beginnings of pronounced cold air advection
which will keep daytime highs in the low 40s across much of the
region today. With no moisture to be seen for miles...aforementioned
features will pass with little affect aside from gusty northwest
winds which could reach 30 mph through the afternoon.

Very little weather to speak of for the remainder of the work week as
northwest flow begins to flatten out by Friday as a deep trough digs
from the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. As this low continues
to dig into northern Mexico by Saturday...southerly flow will
strengthen over the western Gulf which should allow return flow
moisture to begin working north through the Deep South and lower Miss
Rvr Vly. Fcst models finally showing some signs of agreement this
morning with both the GFS and ECMWF converging on a QPF solution for
Sat ngt/early Sun as previously mentioned moisture begins to interact
with a northern stream shortwave approaching from the central High
Plains. Fortunately for our area...both models show the bulk of the
southern stream system energy passing to our south and east with
only "leftover" precip expected across our area...more in
association with the northern stream wave. That said...GFS BUFKIT
soundings show no indications of a developing warm wedge aloft as
bulk of thermal advection remains south of our area. As a
result...expect rain changing over to a rain/snow mix early Sunday
morning with minimal accumulations expected thanks to a very limited
moisture supply.

Conditions should begin to dry from west to east on Sunday with dry
weather anticipated for much of Monday. Large scale model
differences begin to reappear as early as Monday night however as GFS
and ECMWF disagree with strength of another Pacific trough digging
through the Intermountain West on Tuesday. The GFS wants to dig this
trough as far south as northern Mexico once again while the weaker
ECMWF maintains an open wave across the Northern Rockies and Plains.
The former would offer a more wintry solution for our area as a Texas
Panhandle low is forecast to track up the I-44 corridor through
midweek...while the latter would take a cold front through our area
as main midlevel energy passes to our north. Regardless...its way to
early to get cute with the grids and will allow future model runs to
iron out the details before showing any level of excitement.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

Ceilings are rising to above 3000 FT and also beginning to break up.
But low VFR ceilings should linger through sunset. Winds will also
remain strong from the west-northwest through sunset as well before
decreasing overnight and through the day tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB


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