Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240928

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Issued at 328 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Another mild late November day is on tap as south southeasterly
winds increase, promoting both mixing and warm-air advection this
afternoon across the region. Have raised highs above guidance due to
warmer than expected temperatures yesterday and an equal to possibly
even better potential for warming this afternoon, bumping afternoon
temperatures into the lower 60s more much of the CWA.

Changes will be on the way Wednesday as a trough sweeps through the
region, bringing warm-sector rain showers from Wednesday evening
through early Thursday, and more widespread, heavier rain during the
daylight hours on Thanksgiving. The forecast remains fairly on track
for this system, with nominal model spread in timing and position of
the surface cold front pushing through our forecast area Thursday
afternoon. Precipitation type remains tricky along the elevated cold
front, and while models are in agreement that: 1) light to moderate
precipitation is expected behind the surface front, and 2) a strong
warm nose centered around 850 hPa makes snowfall look less and less
likely; near-surface temperatures are still in question. The NAM,
GFS, and EC all indicate that surface temperatures will remain above
freezing while precipitation is falling, making the most likely
scenario that precipitation type will remain all rain throughout the
event. However, the often-cold-biased GEM brings temperatures into
the 20s behind the front, knocking blended model lows below freezing
and thus showing a potential for either sleet or freezing rain after
sunset Thursday. Since the main model consensus and most likely
scenario is that mixed precipitation will not even occur, did not
feel comfortable assigning the FZRA precip type with this forecast
issuance. If other models begin to trend colder with surface
temperatures and the warm nose continues to look prominent Thursday
evening through the night, will then have to consider revisiting
precip type for future forecast issuances.

A portion of Wednesday-Thursday`s trough will linger as a cut-off
low over the desert southwest, and will continue churning there
through the weekend and into early next week, resulting in a low-end
potential for precipitation in nearly every period of the long-range
forecast. Have bumped up low temperatures Fri-Sun nights to remove
some of the GEM`s bias, especially since again, most other model
soundings indicate that any precipitation would likely fall as rain.
Widespread cloud cover and the nearby influence of the cold cut-off
low will also hold high temperatures down, resulting in little
diurnal temperature range and a dreary, chilly holiday weekend for
the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

VFR conds will prevail with few to sct high clouds expected until
late in the pd when sct clouds around 10kft will move into the
terminals. The main issue for aviators will be gusty southerly winds
up to 25kts during the late morning and afternoon.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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