Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221741

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...Updates to Fire Weather and Aviation Discussions...

Issued at 256 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

A cutoff upper-level low is slowly crossing over the Gulf coast and
moisture associated with this system has been slow to exit
central and southeastern Missouri through early Wednesday morning.
As a result, areas of patchy fog are noted across the
southeastern CWA. Dense fog will likely be limited to areas across
eastern and southern Missouri, where higher dewpoints associated
with lingering low level moisture are observed.

Though dry conditions are expected today with zonal flow aloft
building north of the cutoff low, a couple of concerns are
anticipated for Wednesday. The first is in the form of elevated fire
weather danger this afternoon as southwesterly flow and increased
mixing along a frontal boundary further decreases dewpoints by the
afternoon. Relative humidity values during this time will drop to
approximately 25 percent across northeastern Kansas and western
Missouri. For additional thoughts concerning this potential, see
Fire Weather discussion below. The other concern for today will be
with the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures as warm
advection continues underneath mostly clear skies. Temperatures
will approach the 80 degree mark for areas south of the Missouri
River and the mid 70s for areas north. A weak cold front will push
through northwestern Missouri this afternoon as a surface low
develops well to the north ahead of a shortwave crossing through
the Northern Plains. While the frontal boundary will bring little
in the way of cooling temperatures until Wednesday night, it will
assist with enhancing fire weather danger for northeastern Kansas
and northwestern Missouri with deeper mixing and slightly
heightened wind speeds along the boundary. The frontal boundary
will stall across northern Missouri as a lee-side surface low
drapes a warm front in the same vicinity by Thursday afternoon.
Models have consistently advertised afternoon rain showers and
possible elevated convection north of this boundary. Severe
weather potential looks to be limited by a capped environment,
though this trend will still need to be monitored in subsequent
forecasts. For now, areas north of I-70 are most favored for
Thursday afternoon and evening precipitation. Additional precip is
possible for this area along the wrap around region of the
exiting surface low. While light snow is possible late Friday
night, minor accumulations, if any, will be limited to far
northern Missouri.

Though the late week storm system will be limited with regard to
precipitation for most areas, a near-seasonal cooling trend is
expected for all areas in the wake of this system. Sub-freezing
overnight lows will return to the area beginning Friday night
through Sunday night with afternoon highs generally rising into
the 40s and 50s until the early work week approaches. Additional
widespread precipitation chances will return next week, along with
a brief period of wintry precipitation. Accumulations are not
anticipated before this transitions to liquid rain as the
relatively active pattern persists through the mid- week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Scattered
to broken cirrus will continue to stream across areas mainly along
and south of I-70, with bases around or slightly above 20 kft.
Winds will continue to gust out of the southwest ahead of a south-
eastward moving cold front, but gusts should start to drop off
during the mid and especially late afternoon near the frontal
boundary. Winds will be light and variable overnight before
increasing out of the east tomorrow morning.

As a warm front develops and begins to lift northward on Thursday
morning, thicker stratus will build and ceilings will gradually
lower. A few showers or perhaps even isolated storms are possible
by 18z at the KC-area terminals, but the higher probability of
precipitation will occur at KSTJ and points northward during the
afternoon and early evening. Have not mentioned precipitation in
any of the TAFs at this point, but will continue to monitor for
future forecast issuances.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 1141 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

A narrow corridor of very dry and breezy conditions will exist
along and just ahead of a southeastward-moving "cold" front this
afternoon. RHs are expected to drop below 25-30% as temperatures
warm this afternoon, and may be coincident with winds in excess of
20 mph for a 1-2 hour period before winds lessen again with the
arrival of the weak front. Red Flag criteria may be briefly
reached in this corridor, which is currently positioned over
northwest MO and will progress southeastward toward the KC metro
over the next 1-3 hours. Burning is highly discouraged even as
winds diminish this afternoon and evening, due to very low fuel
moisture and the dry low-level atmosphere.




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