Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240436
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Overnight convection over south central Nebraska sent an outflow
boundary into northwest Missouri this morning. Sufficient moisture
and elevated instability in place allowed new convection to initiate
along the boundary by the late morning. Ongoing convection over
central Kansas then progressed eastward and merged with the storms
in northwest Missouri. Steady northeastward storm motion is flowing
parallel with the now elongated surface boundary across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This boundary is split across the KC
metro and has produced localized flooding within the Kansas City
area, with rain totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches reported in some
areas. A flash flood warning has been issued for areas including the
KC metro until 415 pm this afternoon. Once this boundary does
finally push eastward later this afternoon, steady rain showers will
continue behind this boundary into the evening hours, though these
should be more progressive. Regardless, flooding concerns will
continue throughout areas impacted earlier in the day and will need
to be closely monitored through the evening. Afternoon highs behind
this activity over NW Missouri will be kept to the mid 70s within
the rain cooled air with temperatures expected to peak in the lower
80s ahead of this activity. No severe weather is anticipated along
this boundary.

For tonight and into Tuesday, the low-level jet will favor convection
over central Kansas overnight. This may develop into an MCS that
could then cross into western Missouri toward daybreak. Severe
potential with this activity tomorrow should mostly be limited to NW
Missouri, where marginal deep layer shear is present. Overall, much
uncertainty resides with the forecast throughout the week and
conditions will largely be dependent upon the previous day`s activity
and how the environment responds accordingly. Through the early
portions of the week, current thinking is that severe potential will
be limited with the lack of deep layer shear noted across the CWA.
With that said, all other ingredients will be in place with moderate
instability and ample moisture. Thus, cannot rule out the potential
for severe activity Tuesday as anything that does manage to develop
could produce large hail within tall core storms, along with possible
strong winds.

This trend will then continue into the mid-week as a steady stream
of ample moisture is pulled northward from the Gulf through the
remainder of the week. The dry line and forcing mechanisms will
linger over central Kansas during this time. Thinking that any
strong to severe storms will originate ahead of the dry line and
advect into our area, if storms are able to maintain. As of now,
Wednesday and Thursday will be the most favored periods for severe
weather as the necessary ingredients begin to align. However, this
may be limited by a capping inversion, all dependent on each day`s
previous progression.

Activity may then subside temporarily heading into the weekend,
though the unsettled pattern will continue shortly thereafter as
another longwave trough settles over the southwestern CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Forecast remains highly uncertain. Line of storms in eastern NE is
expected to weaken as it moves east and not really have an impact on
the terminals. But thunderstorms may become more widespread over KS
late tonight and track east into eastern KS and western MO by the
morning hours. This is a scenario presented in a few higher
resolution models and seems reasonable given the outflow boundary
storms are currently developing on in north central KS. As a result,
have kept VFR conditions tonight with MVFR ceilings moving in before
sunrise. Will bring a -shra vcts group into the area late in the
morning through early in the afternoon. Given the uncertainty, will
keep any tsra group out of the forecast until it becomes more clear.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB



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