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000
FXUS63 KEAX 191738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1238 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

An extremely complicated forecast going forward today as well-
advertised upper low spins across the Four Corners region. Early
morning convection continues to move through central and southern
Missouri this hour, with upstream radar and satellite trends
noting next round of developing activity now located across
central and eastern Oklahoma. Main questions going forward today
involve atmospheric recovery following this morning`s activity,
and whether shear profiles will be able to support severe
convection by the time next round moves in later this
morning/early afternoon. Additionally, last night`s rainfall of
1-3" has primed soil conditions for excessive runoff later
today/tonight should heavy rains develop, which obviously is
leading to heighten flash flood concerns across the fcst area.
All told, a challenging and potentially impactful fcst for the Lwr
Missouri Vly over the next 24 hrs.

Early morning activity should continue to exit stage right through
the predawn hours with a few hours of dry wx anticipated through
the mid/late morning. After this, high-res models show next round
of convection lifting north from south-central Kansas by early
afternoon as the next lead shortwave lifts northeast from the
Southern Plains with time. This feature will begin interacting
with a stalled frontal boundary that remains draped across the
forecast region this morning, mainly just north of the I-70
corridor. The combination of increased DPVA aloft along with
continued low-level frontal convergence should lead to a further
blossoming of convection through the afternoon and into the
evening. Despite the presence of these combined forcing
mechanisms, degree of destabilization remains in question this
morning (persistent cloud cover) along with concerns for deep
layer shear as numerous BUFKIT forecast soundings reveal a very
chaotic wind field pattern through the lowest 10-15 kft. As a
result, convection as it moves north will likely be a messy linear
type complex, with marginally severe hail and occasionally strong
wind gusts the main threats.

Overall severe threat (if it materializes) should begin to wane
by evening as further stabilization occurs. By this point, severe
threat should be transitioning to a hydro threat as PWAT values of
2-3 standard deviations above normal continue to surge into the
region along the heels of a strengthening low-level jet which
should impinge upon the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary.
Current WPC QPF forecast calls for 2-3" for additional rainfall
through Saturday morning, however these totals may be even higher
if any training is able to get going overnight. Heaviest axis of
rain will likely be along the highway 50 and I-70 corridors with
the soils primed for possible flash flooding. WPC`s excessive
rainfall forecast places much of our area in a Moderate Risk, and
we certainly cannot argue based on this morning`s model solutions.
In any event, the flash flood watch remains in effect through 12z
Saturday. In addition to the flash flood threat, expect to see
rises on area rivers and streams as well, with river point
flooding looking probable.

Rains should gradually come to an end through the day on Saturday
as cool high pressure settles into the Plains/Lower Missouri Vly.
This should lead to a dry conclusion of the weekend with below
normal temperatures making a return to the area. Next chance for
rain arrives as early as Monday as the next front moves through
the area. Quick look at latest models suggests severe cannot be
ruled out with this activity, so the active weather pattern looks
to continue right into next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

MVFR ceilings will prevail for the first part of the period for
most of the area. Temporary IFR/LIFR visibilities will be
possible this afternoon as convection producing heavy rain moves
into the area from the southwest. Convection is expected to arrive
in the 19Z- 21Z time frame. Storms and heavy rain should stick
around for a majority of the period, moving off to the east by the
morning hours. A surface low is going to move through the area as
well tonight and as it does so, ceilings and visibilities should
drop to IFR conditions. Visibilities should gradually increase as
convection pushes to the east. As for ceilings, they should
gradually lift to MVFR ceilings within the last couple hours of
the period.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ011>014-
     020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Grana