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000
FXUS63 KEAX 020942
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
342 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

Dense fog has spread across portions of east central KS and west
central MO, mainly south of I-70, early this morning. Minor moisture
transport but primarily radiational cooling has allowed this fog to
develop, especially in areas where cirrus has been more scattered
over the last several hours. There remains some question to how far
north the current extent of fog can spread, especially as currently
decoupled winds begin to increase out of the south over the next 1-3
hours. Moisture transport should increase as this occurs, but some
mixing and increasing high-level cloud cover may be detrimental to
additional fog development this morning. Will continue to monitor
trends over the next several hours, and may expand the dense fog
advisory on an as-needed basis.

For the rest of the day, above normal temperatures and mainly dry
conditions are expected as southerly low-level flow develops ahead
of an approaching cold front. A few sprinkles will be possible in
far northeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon as a
shortwave trough dives through southern IA into northeast MO, but
the primary limiting factor for accumulating precipitation will be
dry air below 700 mb. For now, have focused the chance of light rain
showers between 9 AM and noon, and kept the intensity and potential
accumulations very low. Highs should reach the mid 50s to near 60
across the region this afternoon, under increasingly sunny skies.

On Tuesday, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across the
region as convergence enhances southwest surface winds ahead of the
cold front. Highs will likely reach the lower to mid 60s across much
of the region, except in far northwest MO. Models have generally
settled on an early evening - overnight timing for cold frontal
passage across the CWA, bringing breezy northwest winds and falling
temperatures into the region for Tuesday night. No precipitation is
expected with the initial surface fropa, due to limited boundary
layer moisture and lagging upper-level support.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

Little change to previous mid/long range forecast period. There
remains some spread to the timing of the cold frontal passage, but
the window remains Tuesday evening to early Wednesday morning. This
lends to some minor uncertainty to maximum temperatures Wednesday,
but the bigger story will likely be near steady and/or falling
temperatures during the day. Highs on Wednesday for the forecast
area will range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s
southeast. With negligible ascent and a dry subcloud layer, have
removed precipitation chances on Wednesday and for most of Wednesday
night.

Conditions still look supportive for some wintry post-frontal
precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night, with the best chances
south of the forecast area in southern Missouri. Model forecast
cross-sections show a deeply saturated layer with ample large scale
ascent during this time with a temperature profile supportive of
snow. At this time, far southern sections of the CWA will see the
longest duration and closet proximity of supportive conditions for
snowfall. Total snowfall accumulations in the forecast area between
Thursday morning to Friday morning are expected to range from: near
one inch over far southern portions of the CWA, one-half inch along
Interstate 70, less than one-half inch north of Interstate 70,
little to no accumulation over far northern Missouri. Keep in mind
these numbers are preliminary and any change in model conditions may
subsequently alter amounts. The theme of this event is expected to
be light snow with minor accumulations.

Otherwise, a very cold and persistent airmass is expected Wednesday
into early next week. The current forecast has most locations
remaining below freezing for at least 6 days. Some of the coldest
temperatures may occur Friday night as skies clear and surface high
pressure builds into the area resulting in light winds. This good
radiational cooling environment may be enhanced by any potential
snow cover. Single digit to lower teens low temperatures are
anticipated early Saturday morning, with locally lower values where
minor snow cover exists.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

Widespread dense fog has overspread the Clinton area and points
south and west where it will remain widespread for much of the night.
North edge of this fog could make it as far north as the
IXD/OJC/SZL/DMO areas later tonight. However, drier air and increasing
winds to the north should prevent IFR conditions from reaching
MKC/MCI/STJ...so new TAF issuance has improved visibilities for these
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ043>045-
     053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel