029
FXUS63 KEAX 101138
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decaying Thunderstorm Complex In Nebraska May Bring Showers/Storms
  to Northwest and Northern Missouri Thursday Morning

- Isolated/Scattered Storms Possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening
  Primarily Along and North of Interstate 70

- Organized Showers/Storms Friday, Especially The Evening;
  Severe Storms Possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Short-wave trough has ejected across Central Nebraska during the
overnight hours into early morning Thursday that has generated a
line of showers. As of 05z, most of the line has become outflow
dominant as seen on off the KOAX radar. Outflow boundary winds of 40-
50 MPH as of 05z had still be reported in eastern Nebraska. This
short-wave will continue to move eastward, and there is MUCAPE
gradient that tracks from eastern Nebraska into North Central
Missouri that the storms may try to follow. However, as the outflow
advances ahead of it, the inflow that storm complex likely gets cut
off. MSLP analysis in the vicinity of this does show a stronger
convective response with lowered surface pressure that may be
deepening a bit with the mid-level vort maxima overhead. This could
end up providing extra lift to maintain showers and isolated
thunderstorm potential as it drifts southeastward. If this cluster
does hold up as it gets into northwest Missouri, cannot completely
rule out isolated 60 MPH gusts, but gusts above 40MPH are certainly
possible especially with a localized stronger pressure gradient. At
the moment not seeing evidence of an MCV associated with the
convection, but may not be out of the question as we progress into
the early morning hours of Thursday. Through the 00z runs, the HRRR
continues to be bearish about convection lasting into northern
Missouri, along with the NSSL-WRF. Experimental RRFS depicts
stronger cores making into north-central Missouri, but this solution
did not depict and outflow boundary as early as we have already
seen. With the short-wave passing through and potential for
convergence along the outflow boundary, will maintain slight chance
POPs (15-24%) for areas mainly north of Hwy. 36 through Thursday
morning.

Heading into the afternoon hours today, a PV anomaly will promote
stronger troughing over the western CONUS that is expected to de-
amplify the 594dam high that has been sitting over the desert
southwest for the past several days. Strong dCVA from the
Intermountain West to the Front Range has already started providing
lift, and can see surface pressure lowering as cyclogenesis takes
place across most of the High Plains. RAP, HRRR and other CAMs have
been suggesting an area of surface troughing to extend eastward
along the KS-NE stateline and into northern Missouri. This is also
where we may potentially have remnant outflow boundaries from the
overnight activity, where lingering cloud cover may have potential
to promote differential heating. The HRRR has been inconsistent from
run to run overnight with respect to redevelopment Thursday
afternoon into evening. The NSSL-WRF has been developing stronger
convection across southern Nebraska into far northern Kansas but
then decays as it gets into northern Missouri. Some CAM runs have
tried to sneak some activity as far south as the Interstate 70
corridor, including Kansas City, but have not seen overly
persistent trends at least through the 03z CAM runs. Most of the CAM
spread seems to be attributed to recovery and destabilization
through the afternoon (not trying to sound like broken record, but a
persistent pattern leads to persistent weather, and persistent
uncertainty with weakly forced convection). HREF mean MUCAPE values
show a narrow corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg that develops essentially
between Hwy. 75 to roughly the western third of Missouri. The one
change that is coming to the environment today though, will be
stronger 850-600mb southwesterly flow, that will setup a more
pronounced EML from the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri River
Valley. This may make it easier to recognize higher CAPE values, but
could also result in a strong capping inversion especially through
Thursday afternoon (potential for 700mb of temperature in excess of
12C). Increasing mid-level flow associated with passing vort maxima
and H5 height falls will also start to gradually increase deep layer
shear. With a slightly better kinematics in play, will maintain
slight chance to chance POPs for portions of the forecast area
northward, with isolated to scattered activity to around I-70. Most
initiation though will probably have to occur over Central Kansas,
or more likely Central Nebraska in the afternoon, where the forcing
should be stronger with better instability, and this would move
eastward through the afternoon into the evening. While better mid-
level lapse rates and perhaps better shear could support some hail
with discrete multicells, isolated to scattered activity may congeal
by the time it would reach far eastern or northeastern Kansas,
transitioning mainly into a wind threat once again. Confidence
continues to remain rather low in storm potential for Thursday
afternoon into evening. While the the forcing looks somewhat better
in more recent model runs compared to last night`s model runs for
Thursday afternoon, it`s not a slam dunk for it to realized. If we
observe a clear MCV on satellite late this morning and afternoon, or
strong differential heating on some kind of mesoscale thermal
boundary, that could be a signal of an increasing storm threat. Have
started to look as some the MPAS core model output, and so far
seeing a wide variety of solutions as well.

Friday, continuing to see a strong signal for a deeper mid-level
trough and stronger vort maxima to move across the area, dragging
along a deeper surface cyclone with more baroclinicity along a warm
front to our north and cold front moving across the Central Plains.
Deterministic guidance has been converging on a solution that depicts
two distinct rounds of stronger H5 height falls, the first through
Friday mid-afternoon, and the second later in the evening. Southerly
flow should increase, providing another push of stronger theta-e
advection to the lower Missouri River Valley. This should result in
stronger CAPE through the area and healthy warm sector, along with
surface pressure falls extending eastward into the Middle
Mississippi River Valley. The 00z CAMs cover the fist half of the
event through Friday early evening, and do show isolated to
scattered convection occurring along a warm front and the first mid-
level vort maxima. The main question for Friday afternoon activity
though will be capping. We may once again have a stronger EML
present, and while steepening mid-level lapse rates, may need a bit
more forcing then could be available to recognize stronger storms.
The better wind shear Friday afternoon may also be further west of
Central Kansas, as it will be tied to the second, stronger vort
maxima progged to move across the area. Heading into Friday evening,
forcing will continue to increase as a cold front moves eastward.
This is expected to be enough to break the cap, and initiate
convection heading into the evening where severe threat will
increase. A quick glance at a few model soundings ahead of the cold
front suggest moderately strong mid-level lapse rates present over a
moist unstable boundary layer, with increasing deep layer shear that
would support organized convection capable of becoming severe.
Damaging winds will be the most prevalent threat Friday evening,
especially as cells congeal into either a line or some kind of MCS.
If things pan out for more discrete storms initially before
congealing, severe hail could occur, though the melting level will
be fairly high, which could reduce hail size. Depending on residual
outflow boundaries or convection, low-level wind shear could support
a low-end tornado threat with discrete storms, this is highly
conditional. In addition to severe storms, deeper warm cloud
processes along with PWATs exceeding 1.75 inches will lend to
efficient rainfall production potential. With heavy rainfall would
come hydro concerns for flooding. However, if the system moves at a
decent speed, any type of MCS complex may end up progressive enough
to limit flooding issues. Preceding afternoon activity on Friday, if
it occurs, would also impact this.

Saturday and beyond, large scale pattern continues to be conducive
to a train of mid-level vort maxima passing through the area, though
stronger belt of westerly flow may remains much further northward of
the area. Ensemble guidance continues to depict multiple periods of
40-50% probabilities for QPF of at least 0.10 inches in a 24 hours
period through much of next week. Depending on how diurnal trends
destabilize will control any severe potential that may come up next
week. If the stronger mid-level flow stays north of the area, deep
layer shear may be hard to come by for most of the opportunities for
precipitation through next week. Temperature wise, Saturday and
Sunday are expected to feature cooler temperatures after the passage
of the cold front. Then through the next work week, temperatures
bounce up and down between the lower 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Morning -SHRA/-TSRA has largely dissipated across the TAF sites,
yielding a couple hours of VCSH for the trio of KC Metro sites.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout with
southerly flow increasing by the afternoon to around 10 to 14
kts sustained and gusts up to around 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Curtis