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000
FXUS63 KEAX 272119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Widespread light snow still is expected to spread toward the KS/MO
border around 9 AM tomorrow and into northern/central MO into the
early afternoon. While confidence remains high that most areas should
see at least an inch or two from this activity, there remains some
questions as to how far north the higher totals will make it, and
whether or not current forecast amounts are too high. A general model
consensus still supports a broad 2" to 3" through Saturday evening south
of the US 36 corridor with perhaps some 4"+ amounts near and south of
a Butler- Sedalia- Boonville line. However, looking at the past few
runs of the NAM (which has been a bit more reliable than other
models lately), it`s possible some of these values could be on the
high side particularly north of the Missouri River. So we`ll keep an
eye on model trends to see if these totals need to be adjusted down.
For now, current forecast still calls for a broad 2" to 4" across all
but Atchison County MO so a winter weather advisory will be issued
for these areas beginning 9 AM Saturday. Regardless of total snow
amounts, this should be a relatively low-impact event with snowfall
rates unlikely to exceed a half inch per hour.

Sunday is still more in question when most models agree on a second
batch of light snow moving through, although there is still quite a
bit of disagreement on how much. GFS remains bullish bringing in a
frontogenetically-enhanced band of 3" to 4" snowfall across areas
near and south of the Missouri River. This model has been too
aggressive with other events this winter, and its native resolution
is probably too coarse to adequately handle this type of small-scale
forcing. Therefore the forecast was trended closer to the NAM on
Sunday which suggests a band of 1" to maybe 2" across the center of
the forecast area from around KC to Moberly. This solution also has
support from the ECMWF. Added on top of snowfall from Saturday and
Saturday night, total snow amounts from this system look to be around
3" to 5" for much of the forecast area, and more like 2" to 3" over
far northern Missouri. Some sleet or rain could cut these values down
by an inch or so on Sunday, mainly south of the Warrensburg-Boonville
corridor.

The next system will impact the area Monday night and Tuesday. This
one still looks to be primarily a rain maker with the main surface
low taking track close to Kansas City. Even areas to the north of
the surface low look to be warm enough for mostly rain until you get
near and north of Omaha. Can`t rule out a rumble or two of thunder
especially Tuesday afternoon with the passage of a strong cold front,
but better chances for this will be further south. A few light snow
showers could linger into Tuesday night with minimal, if any,
accumulation.

Beyond Tuesday the forecast turns to dry and cold with deep surface
ridging dominating the Plains. Could even see single digits return to
the area by Wednesday night.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday
     FOR MOZ002>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh