Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210911
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
411 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 411 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

Big picture across the Nation (as far as we are concerned here
locally) looks to be dominated by a rather messy looking broad
trough being carved out by a circulation moving through the Rocky
Mountains into the Plains States early this morning. Warm air
advection ahead of the trough has already resulted in
thunderstorms and rain spreading north and east across Oklahoma
and Kansas and into southern Missouri as the associated moisture
over runs a frontal boundary stalled across the Rid River Valley
into central Arkansas.

Today into Saturday...we will have some potential for storms; though
the farther north you are, the less likely you are to see much if
any rain. The over running moisture will keep a persistent chance of
rain focused across parts of southern Kansas into southern Missouri
for the next 24 to 36 hours as the primary trough axis exits the
Rockies and moves through the Plains States. Given the placement of
the stalled front well to our south, instability for thunderstorms
will be limited; thus while we might have a bit of thunder with the
storms no strong or severe weather is expected from any of the
stormy activity today or tonight. We will have to watch for heavy
rain though as precipitable water values of around 1 inch will be
prevailing as far north as the Missouri River today into Saturday
morning. The activity from the warm air advection will likely come
in a few waves, with the first wave this morning and another
expected this afternoon, with still more rain again later tonight
as the main trough axis moves across the Plains. Hi-res and other
operational models all limit the northern spread of the rain to
not much past the Missouri River, which seems reasonable given the
placement of the frontal boundary being over run. All told, this
might result in 1 to 2 inches of rain across parts of east central
Kansas through west central into central Missouri. Areas farther
north may still get a bit of rain, but likely not nearly as much.
Rain chances will slide to the east during the day Saturday,
leaving the tail end of the weekend dry. Otherwise, as the trough
moves through it will bring cool air to the region both today and
Saturday, keeping temperatures in the 50s today, and in the 50s
and lower 60s Saturday. By Sunday warmer temperatures will return.


Sunday into next work week...temperatures will rebound as the
prevailing jet aloft shifts back to being north of Missouri. This
should give us a few nice days with temperatures in the 60s and
70s, though current mid-range and ensemble models do point at
another wet period starting next Wednesday evening.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 20 2017

VFR conditions expected at terminal space. Gradual wind direction
will veer from north to northeasterly. Increasing mid-level
cloudiness projected to move into the area overnight. MVFR cigs
and precipitation chances should remain south of terminals through
this forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Blair



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