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000
FXUS63 KEAX 220438
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Tonight- Friday night...

A fairly quiet and benign period with a continuation of above
average temperatures but with some relief from the mid summer-like
humidity. A cold front well to our west and north will move little
as the steering flow remains relatively parallel to the boundary.

Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of thick cirrus headed our way
as a weak shortwave lifts northeast through western KS. Do believe
convection will sprout along the above noted cold front in response
to the strengthening of the nocturnal low-level jet but this
activity is expected to pass north of the CWA later tonight. Could
see the tail end of the storms nick the far northwestern counties or
possibly the remnants of an outflow boundary but not can`t justify
more than slight chance PoPs under a capped environment.

Easterly boundary layer winds to our east are advecting in much
drier air from the OH Valley and this is what the models key in on
in lowering our dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s tomorrow and lower
still on Friday. Given dewpoints are already in the lower-middle 60s
over much of southern MO believe this is a reasonable expectation.

Saturday - Monday...

It`s becoming increasingly likely we`ll see convection enter the
CWA later than Saturday evening and persist through at least
Sunday evening if not into Monday. A large upper trough currently
over the Pacific Northwest is initially handled fairly well by the
medium range models. The upper system will shift through the Rockies
with one significant piece closing off over the Northern Plains
while a second piece of energy drops into the Southern Plains.
Several smaller shortwaves/impulses will lift northeast ahead of
this energy while an influx of gulf moisture funnels northward.
Should see scattered convection develop across the Central Plains
and eventually shift east. The eastward translation should be rather
slow so we could get a healthy does of qpf. An associated cold front
will shift eastward as well and once on the other side of this front
we`ll get our taste of much cooler and seasonal temperatures by
Monday.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Much uncertainty exists early next week due to great disagreement
between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS maintains the closed upper low
over the north central states with the bulk of the lift and
precipitation well east of the CWA whereas the ECMWF further
develops the Southern Plains energy into the primary system and
eventually closes off the system over the central U.S. This solution
results in considerable precipitation over Mid MO Valley. Lacking a
model preference this far out will follow the blended output
realizing later forecasts may ramp up PoPs.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected with mainly scattered to broken high
level clouds moving through. Light southerly winds are expected
through the period as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...CDB