Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Issued at 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Broad ridging over the Mississippi Valley and deep southwest flow
aloft over the eastern Rockies will continue to result in above
normal temperatures and humid conditions through at least Saturday
for the entirety of the CWA. Afternoon mixing should slightly
reduce dewpoints and keep heat indices from exceeding the triple
digit mark, but only by a few degrees, especially this afternoon.

By Sunday, the upper pattern will begin to transition eastward and
diminish the thermal axis over the Plains, helping temperatures to
drop a few degrees. In addition, cloud cover may increase as wide-
spread convection develops over the High Plains and cirrus streams
northeastward, potentially also limiting daytime heating by a few
degrees. The upper trough edging into the central CONUS this
weekend will continue to push eastward early next week, sending a
surface cold front through the forecast area sometime Monday night
or Tuesday. This is a bit of a delay from previous forecasts
likely due to the persistence and strength of the upper high over
the eastern U.S., however some pre-frontal convection is possible
Monday afternoon, effectively extending the potential for precip
with this system from Monday through the eventual frontal passage
Tuesday. Additional, lower precipitation chances extend into
Wednesday if the front stalls near the southern periphery of the
CWA, then the system departs fully by the latter half of the work

Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front,
bringing highs back to near or slightly below their seasonal
average in the 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. A few passing high clouds will diminish this morning, then
scattered cumulus will develop this afternoon with bases above 5
kft. Winds will increase out of the south after sunrise, gusting
between 18-23 kts this afternoon.




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