Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 291107
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
607 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Issued at 321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
This last few isolated showers from last nights scattered convection
are diminishing early this morning. As such, dry conditions can be
expected through the rest of Saturday morning albeit under cloudy
skies. This morning a slow moving cold front extends from Des Moines
to Lawrence. This front will continue to progress slowly eastward
through the day today. Temperatures out ahead of the cold front will
rise into the low 80s which may provide for enough instability for
scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon despite very
weak forcing. Perhaps the better potential for scattered
thunderstorm development will be due to a vort max moving through
the area late this afternoon and evening. With these couple features
affecting the area this afternoon/evening, have slight chance POPs
over the eastern CWA. Surface high pressure should then begin to
build into the area Saturday night providing for drier conditions.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge currently residing over the eastern
Rockies and western High Plains will begin to shift east into the
area. This will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s on Sunday.
This upper level ridge is then expected to remain over the area
Monday and Tuesday with increased warm air advection. Expect highs
on both days to rise into the upper 80s to near 90. Both the EC and
GFS indicate a shortwave flattening out the ridge in the Tuesday
night through Wednesday time frame which will provide the best
chance for precipitation in the extended period. However, despite
the shortwave flattening the ridge temporarily it is expected to
build right back over the area by Thursday keeping conditions warm.
in fact, temperatures by the end of next week are expected to remain
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
IFR cigs will affect the terminals this morning with the exception of
MKC which will remain just abv 1kft. Expect IFR cigs to lift to low
MVFR by 16Z and to abv 2kft by 18Z. Cigs will eventually sct out by
21Z. Winds will generally by lgt out of the north thru the TAF pd.