Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011749
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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