Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 242327
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
A large swath of showers and thunderstorms has developed this
afternoon stretching from TX into central KS and into the Dakotas
ahead of a deep upper-level trough over the Intermountain West. Most
of this activity is being driven by an extensive low-level jet
stretching across the Plains. This jet and its associated
precipitation will slowly work their way eastward late this evening,
with the axis of strongest convergence/isentropic ascent not reaching
the I-35 corridor until after 9 pm or so. However, the airmass out
ahead of this activity remains unstable and uncapped, and with weak
warm air advection continuing into the evening, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms remain a possibility across the entire forecast area
until the main axis of precipitation moves in later tonight.
Occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms will slowly track
eastward across the entire forecast area overnight into early Sunday.
Limited instability during this time will prevent much threat for
strong storms or widespread heavy rain, although precipitable water
values approaching 2 inches could lead to a few pockets of an inch or
two of rainfall especially over eastern KS and northwest MO.
Generally, however, rainfall amounts look to stay near or below a
half inch for most locations. Showers and a few storms will continue
into Sunday morning until the main cold front swings through during
the late morning and early afternoon hours.
By Monday an extensive area of high pressure will build into most of
the central U.S. with its influence continuing into most of the rest
of the week. The result will be dry conditions for the remainder of
the week while temperatures stay close to average for late September.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
Areas of thunderstorms will continue to build eastward this evening,
beginning to impact all TAF sites between now (KSTJ) and 01z-02z for
the KC area TAF sites. Thunderstorms will weaken as they continue to
push east, and may become more rain-showery with just a few embedded
rumbles of thunder by midnight. Eventually, a surface cold front will
sweep through all TAF sites and push lingering showers out of the
region between 09z and 15z Sunday, leaving behind gradually clearing
skies and northwest winds.