Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140819

319 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, a overcast stratus deck at
6kft was moving east across the CWA. Temperatures varied across the
area, with lower 40s in cloud free areas and lower 50s under the
cloud cover. This cloud deck will move east and dissipate between
15-17Z, with only some mid and high level clouds increasing by the
late afternoon. Afternoon temperatures today will warm into the
upper 60s to middle 70s. Southerly winds will advect increasing
boundary layer moisture, especially in the western half of the
forecast area where dewpoints will return to the middle to upper 50s
by the early evening. A shortwave trough will drop southeastward
into the Dakotas tonight, placing the CWA within the right rear
quadrant of the upper jet. A 35kt southwesterly H85 low level jet
will develop over Kansas tonight, with a moistening vertical
profile. Warm air advection coupled with increasing upper ascent
from the approaching trough should allow for scattered convection to
develop after 03Z initially in northeast Kansas into northwest
Missouri, with coverage of convection increasing between 06-12Z.
While elevated instability will increase with time Sunday night,
MUCAPE values should remain fairly modest through 15Z Mon.

Monday/Tuesday: An associated cold front will push through the CWA
during the day Monday, clearing the area by late afternoon.
Depending on convective evolution and existing cloud debris, a
moderate amount of instability may reside over the southwest
portions of the CWA ahead of the front early Monday afternoon. This
area will have the highest chance of a couple stronger storms as
deep layer shear on the order of 40kts will exist, but still
anticipate the majority of convection to remain below severe levels.
Precipitation will come to an end from north to south during the
late afternoon into the early evening as drier air advects into the
area and ascent shifts to the east and south. Maximum temperatures
will be strongly influenced by precipitation and cloud cover, with
areas north of Interstate 70 remaining in the 60s, with middle 70s
over the southern quarter of the CWA ahead of the afternoon frontal
position. High pressure moves into the area on Tuesday, providing a
nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

For the beginning of the extended portion of the forecast we`ll see
northwest flow over the region. Models are in decent agreement
moving a subtle upper-level shortwave trough through the flow with a
weak low-level jet nosing into eastern Kansas. This leads to a
relatively compact area of modest isentropic ascent with modest
moisture transport. As a result, showers and storms look possible
late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning over eastern Kansas
and far western Missouri. Instability looks meager and shear is weak
so the threat of anything severe is very low. This pattern of subtle
shortwave troughs... a weak low-level jet... and ensuing weak
isentropic ascent may persist Wednesday night but the chances don`t
look as good as the previous day so have limited PoPs to either the
far southwestern portions of the forecast area or just removed them.

A shift in the upper-level pattern looks to occur by the end of the
week. The ridge-trough pattern across the CONUS, giving our region
northwesterly flow, breaks down as a strong positively tilted trough
moves across the northern half of the country. This will then trail
a cold front southward and into the eastern Plains and lower
Missouri valley bringing us another decent chance for rainfall
Saturday. There is some differences in the medium-range models, but
consistency is good enough to carry at least a chance for showers
and storms.

With regards to temperatures, cooler high pressure will prevail over
the eastern tier of the country with lee troughing over the Plains.
This should keep the surface flow from the east to southeast through
Thursday, with winds becoming southerly by Friday, in response to
the approaching upper system and deepening lee trough. The end
result of this pattern should be temperatures much closer to normal
with highs generally warming each day from Wednesday to Friday.
Highs by Friday should be in the 80s ahead of the front. There is
some uncertainty with how warm we may be for Saturday and this is a
result of the timing of the front and any clouds/precipitation that
may come with it.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Bkn-ovc deck btn 6-7kft is evident on satellite imagery in eastern
Kansas. These cigs will move into the terminals by 06Z and should
remain there thru mid-morning. Otrw...expect sct high cirrus during
the day giving way to a bkn deck around 6kft during the evening
hours. Winds will generally be light overnight picking up out of the
SE to SSE btn 5-10kt by mid-morning.




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