Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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953
FXUS63 KEAX 020754
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.

Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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