Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 281759
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Early this morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Isolated light afternoon showers east of I-35. VFR conditions through
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered convection expected to form
by late afternoon over northwest MO and northeast KS along or just
ahead of a cold front. Activity expected to advance southeast through
the early evening hours but weaken after sunset. Except for a brief
period of MVFR ceilings with the strongest storms over northwest MO
expect VFR ceilings. Timing remains too uncertain for a 2hr TEMPO
group for the Kansas City terminals.
Should see MVFR ceilings follow with the passage of the cold front.