Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 072330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A few echoes in the area have been noted on radar as of Sunday
evening. Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be in the
form of snow flurries, though with very dry dew points, these should
remain minimal until overnight. At that time, snow showers/squalls
are possible through the mid-morning on Monday. The main impact will
be the potential for periodic reduced visibilities as wind gusts
approach 30kts, occurring simultaneously with potential heavy snow.
Increased surface winds will then continue as precipitation tapers
off during the mid-morning hours. Winds will remain out of the NW,
gusting to 30-35kts through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh


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