Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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017
FXUS63 KEAX 290504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

The main feature of interest in the short-term is a upper level
trough located over the central U.S./Canadian border. This feature
will force a weak cold front into the area tomorrow. This
front will produce showers north of the CWA however, as they
approach the area, dry air in place below 8kft should allow showers
to dissipate. During the late afternoon and evening, models are
trying to develop showers and thunderstorms along the front however,
the front should be south of the CWA by that time keeping the area
dry. Otherwise, expect mid-level clouds tomorrow with highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front south
of the area will lift back north as a warm front. As it does, a
shortwave rounding the base of the upper level trough will move into
the region. This will be enough to allow thunderstorms to develop
across the area. Shear and instability will be relatively weak but
500-1000J/kg of MUCAPE may be enough to produce a strong storm or
two. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Storms will move
out of the area Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the area
for Wednesday. Expect highs on Wednesday in the mid 70s to near 80.

In the extended timeframe (Thursday through Sunday) conditions look
more active. The local area will be under northwest flow or quasi-
zonal through the period with several shortwave affecting the area.
With the timing of these features being nebulous there is off and on
chance of storms through this timeframe. Temperatures through the
period will be near normal ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Mid-level clouds
will advect over the terminals Monday morning, and with a weak
boundary in place, could see a few sprinkles, though generally
thinking conditions will remain dry throughout Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Welsh



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