Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270912

312 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.




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