Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220921

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 321 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

A upper level trough is moving across the Red River Valley this
morning and will continue to move east across southern Arkansas
today. Moisture is streaming north ahead of this system this morning
continuing showers that began last night. Shower are expected to
continue through this morning and perhaps linger into early this
afternoon as this system moves by to the south. Models are
indicating a deformation type band setting up across the area along
a 700mb front and it is along this front precipitation will be
focused. But again, precipitation will come to an end early his
afternoon. However, cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day and
with CAA, high temperatures will only achieve the upper 30s to upper
40s. Tonight, fog again may become an issue especially across the
western CWA where skies are expected to clear and winds will become
light as surface high pressure moves into the area. Surface high
pressure will dominate the area Monday as upper level ridging builds
across the region in response to a trough digging down the West
Coast. Expect highs in the 40s on Monday.

The aforementioned West Coast trough moves into the Plains on
Tuesday forcing a cold front into the eastern Plains by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures should warm nicely across the area ahead of
the front with modest WAA. Expect highs Tuesday to range from the
upper 40s across the north where showers will be possible beginning
early in the day to the lower 60s across the south. Rain showers
will overspread most of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday night with the highest PoPs across the northern CWA. Some
rain may mix with or change over to snow across the northern CWA
early Wednesday morning and continue through the morning hours.
Temperatures on Wednesday across the northern CWA will range from
the low to mid 30s so any accumulation looks to be minimal at this
time. Elsewhere across the CWA, highs will range from the upper 30s
to lower 40s with rain the predominant p-type through the period.
Precipitation will exit the area Wednesday night as the upper level
trough shifts into the Great Lakes region. This will leave the area
under cold northwest flow aloft through the remainder of the work
week keeping temperatures cool. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
be in the 30s to near 40 however, conditions will remain dry.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

Light rain persists this evening across the area, with a fairly
dry layer of air between the surface and 6000 feet, where ceilings
currently reside. This dry layer is making it difficult for large
amounts of rain to make it to the surface, thus VSBY has been VFR
throughout the spatial and temporal aspect of these showers.
Expect that to remain the trend through the overnight hours, with
gradual tapering off of the rain by early to mid morning as more
dry air works into the atmosphere. The uncertainty regarding the
fog is still present. There are some models still hinting at some
fog development overnight, but with stratus in the area as well as
the light rain those factors lessen the chances for widespread fog
to develop. Should fog develop it would be more likely in far
northern Missouri where stratus hasn`t moved in yet. This could
include KSTJ or KMCI, but with stratus over those terminals it
doesn`t look likely. Will continue to monitor those trends
through the night and amend as needed. Late in the forecast period
stratus is hinted at strongly as the cooler air moves into the
area. have introduced MVFR CIGS for a few hours at the end of the
forecast period, with maybe some clearing there after. More fog
could be on the way should the stratus clear out tomorrow night,
but that time period is outside of this 24 hour forecast cycle.




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