Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281127

527 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

Issued at 345 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

For the tail end of the weekend its looking sunny with temperatures
near normal for this time of year, which is a bit cooler than our
recent Christmas holiday. Cold air continues to advect into Kansas
and Missouri as a modest little surface high oozes farther south
into the Plains early this morning. This cool dry air mass will keep
conditions sunny today, which will be a nice change from the cloudy
skies that have been prevalent.

Monday through chance for precipitable weather will
arrive with a reinforcing shot of cold air from the north. The
surface high to watch is already noted working its way south through
the Yukon and Northwest Territories into Alberta and Saskatchewan
and is due to arrive here in our sections of the Plains Monday
night. Moisture across the Central Plains wont be overly abundant at
that time, thanks to the current cool surface high, but looks
sufficient that it might be able to generate some snow. Persistent
zonal flow over an intruding arctic air mass is a good set up for
light snow in our area. Frontogenic forcing along the leading edge
of the cold air will likely be able to at least squeeze some
flurries from the sky, but also might be able to generate a light
snow accumulation, expected to be well less than an inch, across the
northwest corner of Missouri south into Kansas City. Have bumped
POPs Monday night into the Chance range as result. Additionally,
have kept a broad brush of flurries in Monday night through noon
Tuesday owing to the persistent cold air advection. Thinking is if
there is any kind of low level clouds or moisture still in place
Tuesday morning, flurries will be unavoidable given the cold air
advection. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well below normal for
Tuesday into Wednesday as a result or our Canadian air mass.

Later half of the work week and into the weekend...will be dominated
by the potential for our next big weather making system. Medium
range model runs are in fair agreement that late in the work week a
closed low of some kind is going to try and develop across
California. Down stream affects from this system will induce a
shortwave ridge in the Southern Plains, resulting in both a decent
Gulf moisture return. Question abound as to what the thermal
profiles will be, but have kept it simple at this time with snow at
night when surface temperatures are coldest and a mix of rain/snow
during the day. Timing currently projects this activity to start as
early as Thursday night, with the potential for several rounds of
activity through Friday and into Saturday as the California system
slowly moves east and gets picked up in the broader flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR conditions will dominate the region for the next 24 hours as a
cold surface high oozes across the region. This will likely keep
winds on the light side today and tonight with speeds expected to
remain below 10 knots.




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