Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041101
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity values will increase fire concerns this afternoon, but
recent green- up of fuels across the region should help mitigate fire
risk.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will become
northwesterly this morning behind a cold front that is currently
passing through the region. Diurnal mixing will allow for gusty
northwest winds through the afternoon...becoming light overnight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM


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