Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231723

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

The upper level trough that will continue to affect our weather over
the next two days extends from from MN to the TX panhandle, with
multiple embedded shortwaves moving through it noted via the various
GOES-16 water vapor channels. One of these embedded waves was over
southern to eastern NE early this morning and will move through the
forecast area this morning.  This may spread some showers to the
area this morning as a result. The next embedded wave can be seen
along the SD/MN state line and should be moving into the area by the
afternoon. This wave is very near the main upper low and as this
wave moves into the area, showers and a few storms are likely to
develop across northern MO and then build southward with time.
Forecast soundings show about 100 to 200 J/kg CAPE with a low
freezing level and low equilibrium level. While convection will be
shallow/low topped, freezing levels around 6000 to 7000 ft suggest
some potential for small hail. For Wednesday, the upper low will
have shifted into eastern MO or IL by the afternoon hours. A similar
scenario to Tuesday should set up over the eastern half of the
forecast area. Forecast soundings though suggest weaker, shallower
instability so think the chances for any thunder are lower. So
for Wednesday it looks more like diurnal showers.

By Thursday and Friday, temperatures will climb back to normal to
slightly above normal levels. Shortwave ridging moving through
the area on Thursday will help temperatures climb back into the
mid to upper 70s, close to normal. Heading into the weekend, the
temperature forecast gets a little more challenging as there is
some disagreement on the placement of surface features. For
Friday, the GFS and the Canadian show the forecast area north of a
weak front. This results in cooler temperatures with
precipitation chances compared to the ECMWF which shows the front
further north. Models then remain out of sync through Saturday and
Sunday with the GFS actually moving a strong convective system
through the area Saturday. Some agreement happens to return to the
models by Sunday with the area generally in a post-frontal regime
with slightly cooler than normal temperatures. The GFS though
continues to try to move precipitation into the area while the
ECMWF and the Canadian stay dry.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

VFR conditions will dominate the first half of the period with
scattered showers popping up in the afternoon timeframe. There
could be some isolated thunderstorms, but the chances are so low
this threat was left out of the TAFs. MFVR ceilings will move into
the area in the early morning and stick around until the late
morning to early afternoon when VFR conditions will return.




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