Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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093
FXUS63 KEAX 230453
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

Stratus deck currently draped across southern KS and SW MO is
slowly making its way into the SW corner of the forecast area.
With isentropic ascent overnight, could see some drizzle and/or
light rain with the stratus deck, especially after midnight and
into the morning hours Thursday. With at least partial clearing
anticipated by midday tomorrow for much of the forecast area, and
WAA in full force, highs tomorrow look to reach well into the 70s
despite the cloud cover early on. The exception is across the NE
portion of the forecast area where the clearing may not be as
quick and the WAA not as robust.

The weather to watch this week will be the well-discussed Friday
system. With PWATs on Friday near or above the 90th percentile
climatologically speaking, it currently looks like the area could
see some decent and much needed rainfall. As for the severe
potential, it looks like a high shear/low CAPE setup. We`re still
talking about the event a few days out so plenty of opportunity
to nail down specifics in subsequent forecasts but at this point,
should severe weather develop, can`t rule out the various hazards,
especially in the southern portions of the forecast area.

As the parent low moves through the area Saturday, will continue
to see rain chances well into the first half of the weekend. We`ll
likely see a break in precip on Sunday but by overnight Sunday
into early Monday as a second low pressure system approaches and
traverses across the region, will see an additional round of
precip chances through late Monday. From the middle of the week
onward, model solutions widely vary, not leaving much room for
high confidence in one particular solution over another.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

Low end VFR stratus has moved into the area over the last few
hours, with even lower CIGs anticipated over the next several
hours. Surface OBs indicate that CIG`s just to the W/SW of the
terminals are just barely MVFR. Expect that area of FL020 to FL030
CIGs to move into the terminals through the overnight hours. There
could be some light rain showers or some drizzle, but dry layer at
the surface make both rather minimal concerns. Despite winds
remaining gusty through the entire forecast period a 60 to 70 kt
jet around FL020 to FL030 will create some low level wind shear
concerns late Thursday night into Friday morning. Will refine that
forecast with upcoming issuances.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Leighton



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