Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






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