Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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496
FXUS63 KEAX 121726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017

The strong winds we saw yesterday and early this morning have
finally decreased as the surface pattern has relaxed. In
addition, cooler air has been ushering in behind yesterday`s front,
as a surface high slides southeast. This and the clear skies are
helping temperatures drop into the upper teens to mid 20s this
morning. This afternoon, temperatures will warm into the 30s and
low 40s, which is about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.

Regarding the upper level pattern, not much has changed with the
persistent ridging over the western US and troughing in the eastern
US. As a result, northwest flow aloft will continue to dominate over
our area until early Saturday, when the pattern breaks down. A
couple of shortwave troughs will round the longwave trough before
the pattern change. The first is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon
with the second moving through late Thursday. Both will be
accompanied by cold frontal passages, which will aid in the
temperature roller coaster this week. Highs Wednesday will be back
in the 50s with highs Thursday in the upper 30s and low 40s and
highs Friday in the 40s. As for precipitation chances, the frontal
passage Wednesday should be dry, with a chance for a light rain
and snow mix Thursday night. Right now, it looks like we will
still be fairly dry at the surface, so anything that makes it to
the ground shouldn`t amount to much.

On Saturday, a shortwave from the Pacific Northwest will approach
the area, as well as, a surface low originating from southern CO.
The southerly wind shift ahead of this system will allow
temperatures to warm back into the 50s and approach 60 in our
southern area. The system should move through early Sunday
morning, but unfortunately, the frontal passage looks to be dry,
as the moisture advection stays to our south.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017

VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast. Clear skies
will be interrupted briefly with a low VFR deck of stratus moving
east into the area from KS. Winds will decrease and back to the
SSW overnight and increase ahead of the next front tomorrow
morning. The front should move through the terminals late in the
morning, but timing is still a little uncertain. But winds are
expected to increase noticeably behind the front from the
northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB



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