Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111124

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

The general forecast through the next 7 days remains rather quite as
dry, pleasant conditions will dominate into mid-October. This will
leave the only specific weather concern for us to focus on pointed
at fire weather.

Today will be very warm with near record --or possibly record
breaking-- temperatures expected this afternoon. The modest ridge
that has been prevailing across the Plains in recent days has
allowed warm air to advect north over the past day with the help of
a trough moving east along the US-Canadian border. The Canadian
border trough will continue east over the next few days as it
deepens, but of more importance for us will be the cold front it
sends south though the Plains States today and tonight. Warm air
advection in advance of the front, as well as ample sunshine, will
ultimately result in the thermal ridge across the Plains leaning over
into northwest and western Missouri today. This will allow 850mb
temperatures between 20C and 25C to advect in across the region with
resulting surface temperatures well into the 80s. The record of 89
degrees is in danger for Kansas City, though the current forecast
stops just shy of forecasting a record high. This will also make for
favorable fire weather conditions as southwest surface winds will be
a bit gusty this afternoon --more details included in the Fire
Weather section below--.

The frontal passage is expected early Monday morning, and is
expected to be dry as the deep layer moisture needed for
precipitation is still located well to our southwest based on upper
air observations. However, behind the front will be more dry air,
and given the Pacific origin to the front and the following air
mass, temperatures will only drop off notably in relation to
temperatures from Sunday, as Monday`s highs behind the "cold" front
will still be above normal for this time of year; currently, normal
is around or just below 70. The big issue will be the dry gusty
northwest wind which might result in critical fire conditions being
reached. Current forecast has fire parameters wallowing around critical
criteria Monday afternoon --more details in the Fire Weather section

Rest of the work week is expected to be dry with more above normal
temperatures dominating the Plains as an amplified pattern develops
across the CONUS with a ridge to our west and trough to our east.
Currently our section of the Plains looks to be on the warm side of
the westerlies that will result, thus allowing warm air to prevail
through the week. Late in the work week the development of a east
CONUS trough will eventually drag another frontal boundary across
the Plains Thursday or Friday. Confidence is the precipitation
forecast by models is low given the current spread in solutions, but
the general trend is sufficient to allow decent confidence that
temperatures will cool down to or just below normal for the weekend
as temperatures fall back into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR conditions will dominate for the next 24 hours thanks to the dry
air mass in place across the region. Otherwise, expect southwest
winds through the day which will get a bit gusty late this morning
and through the afternoon hours. Winds will calm and swing around to
the northwest late tonight as a cold front sweeps southeast across
the region with winds turning to the northwest early Monday morning.


Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Fire concerns will dominate today and again Monday as dry air and
gusty winds combine. A modest surface high shifting off to our
southeast today will allow gusty southwest winds to prevail across
Kansas and Missouri. The recent spat of dry weather has left the
region bereft of moisture for the most part placing weather
parameters with in reach of critical fire weather conditions. Expect
afternoon dewpoints to mix out a bit, but pooled moisture ahead of
the front, which is expected to sweep south overnight, should keep
minimum humidity values this afternoon from dropping too much; with
afternoon values around 30% to 35% likely with southwest winds of 10
to 20MPH. The dry frontal passage later tonight will turn the winds
to the northwest but the air mass will be much drier, likely allowing
Monday afternoon minimum humidity values to bottom out around or
below the critical value of 25%. Expect these dry temperatures to be
coincident with gusty northwest winds ranging around 20MPH. This
currently makes Monday look like the most problematic day for Fire
Weather concerns.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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