Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290406
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday):

The main concern in the short term will be for the potential for
frost tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure across the central
Plains this afternoon will move into the area tonight. Relatively
calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to
around 40. As such, have issued a frost advisory for northern
Missouri between 4AM and 9AM. High pressure will remain in control
through the day Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday night, high pressure will shift east
and we get a brief return to southerly low keeping overnight lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A quick moving upper level shortwave will
force a cold front through the CWA on Thursday. A few light showers
will be possible over the eastern CWA but dry air near the surface
may keep conditions dry. Consequently, have slight chance POPs in
the forecast for Thursday. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the front. The front will quickly push east of the area
by Thursday night with lows again falling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday):

The extended time frame will start out quiet but chilly. High
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains on
Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s providing for
chilly trick-or-treat conditions. Models are in good agreement that
the surface ridge will reside directly over the area on Friday
night. This will provide for good radiational cooling and the
potential for the first freeze for most of the area. Expect lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s. With cool surface high pressure expected to
remain in control over much of the day on Saturday, highs will only
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday, an upper level ridge will
build over the area in response to a  trough digging into the
central Rockies. This will provide a warm up back to near normal
conditions with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night the
aforementioned upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies
forcing a cold front into the Plains. This will increase shower
chances across the area Sunday night. These shower chances will be
prolonged through Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts northeast
into the Canadian Plains and the cold front stalls across the area.
As such have chance POPs in the forecast Sunday night through
Tuesday before chances diminish late in the day. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be seasonable in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be that the light and variable wind overnight
will slowly turn to the southeast late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter






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