058
FXUS63 KEAX 292052
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches has fallen since
  early this morning, with additional 1 to 2 inches overnight. A
  Flash Flood watch is in effect through Noon on Monday.

* A slight risk severe thunderstorms into the overnight hours
  primarily west of US Highway 65. Primary risks remain damaging
  winds and locally heavy rainfall.

* Through the upcoming week, expect slightly cooler temperatures
  and less humid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A rather messy day all around with showers and thunderstorms
moving through the forecast area through the entire day. This
has limited heating for the day as well as shifted the timing
of the potential thunderstorm activity to later overnight into
Monday morning time period.

Thunderstorm activity initially initiated along the low level
jet early this morning which majority of the storms were sub-
severe but bringing brief heavy rainfall across Doniphan county
and then additional storms produced heavy rainfall over
Leavenworth. A vigorous convective system moved southward from
IA/MO into north western MO and northeast KS, in which the new
convective storms initiated along the the outflow boundaries
from those storms. So we had several rounds of precipitation,
especially within the KC metro area and Leavenworth county. One
of the storms that developed and moved east was a stronger storm
that moved from Topeka which brought another round of
precipitation to the KC Metro area along with some wind gusts
of 50 to 55 mph. As it moved eastward the convection that had
the greatest environment with Miami, Linn, Bates and Henry
counties had more heating potential with the lack of cloud cover
which allowed stronger storms from 1-3pm, but also produced
heavy rain 2-3 inches of rainfall to west central MO.

Now for the additional messy part, is that current CAMs are a
bit all over the place in terms of thunderstorm activity. There
is anticipated to additional thunderstorm activity to develop in
KS with an expected MCS and move into MO so the severe
potential and heavy rainfall from the storms in the late
overnight into early morning hours on Monday. The harder part
for example such as the HRRR model also changes location as well
as the timing further later. What confidence do have is that
there a severe potential that shifted later, so 3am to 10am with
the main threats being damaging winds and with the warmer and
moist environment can easily see heavy precipitation across an
area (mainly west of Highway 65) in which already had widespread
rainfall of 2-3 inches already. Additional precipitation
amounts for through tomorrow morning are the 1 to 2 inches.

Thankfully one of the good things is that the temperatures and
humidity relief that will occur in the upcoming work week ahead
through mid week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
and low temperatures in the 60s. Unfortunately the heat returns
on Thursday reaching back into the upper 80s into lower 90s.
However the weather pattern is relatively dry or low end chance
of precipitation 15-20%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Scattered thunderstorms earlier this morning from the system
moving southward from IA/MO with outflow boundaries igniting
more development.Unfortuantely messy forecast situation with the
TAFs. For the TAF sites KSTJ has cleared out of storms but for
the other 3 have linger thunderstorms that should move out after
19-20z. For areas north central MO storms continue to move east
with linger showers from line KIRK and KMBY. While much of the
environment has been worked over by the current storms
extending afternoon, still have a slight risk of thunderstorms
developing primarily areas west of US Highway 65 which. CAMs
models are highly uncertain but have placed Prob30 from 03z-06z
then from 06z have TAF sites with predominant -TSRA. Again
confidence through the earlier time periods reason for prob30
but better confidence in the overnight activity into tomorrow
morning after 06z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX