Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



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