Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 061726

1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014

Issued at 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

45-kt low-level jet is feeding into western Missouri early this
morning where it is interacting with a weak vort max dropping in from
the northwest. This has resulted in rapid thunderstorm development
early this morning across areas east of the I-35 corridor. Shear is
weak, but elevated instability around 2000 J/kg has been enough to
get severe hail out of the strongest storms along with very heavy
rain around 2 inches per hour. Severe hail and heavy rain threats
will persist for a few more hours toward sunrise as storms move into
central Missouri, with a gradual weakening trend after this as the
jet weakens and the vort max moves into the Ozarks.

By this afternoon 850 hPa temperatures of 21C to 24C will spread into
eastern KS and northwest MO which will allow temperatures to rise
into the lower to middle 90s across these areas. This surge of warm
air has slowed down a bit and widespread recent rains across northern
MO will cut back on boundary layer mixing heights, so temperatures
were nudged down a couple of degrees. However, this rainfall will
also boost humidity levels and may still bring heat index values
into the 100 to 105 range this afternoon especially northwest of

A weak surface front will drop into northern Missouri late tonight
and early Monday before gradually losing definition Monday afternoon.
Weak convergence along the front could spark a thunderstorm or two
across northern Missouri Sunday night into Monday morning, but
capping will likely be too strong for widespread storms so kept PoPs
limited to slight chance through Monday afternoon. Meanwhile a
continued surge of warm 850 hPa temps should send temperatures back
into the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon, with a bit of moisture
pooling possible ahead of the weak front which could once again send
heat index values to between 100 and 105 near and south of the
Missouri River.

A stronger front will move into the forecast area Monday night while
a strong low-level jet moves into northern Missouri. The interaction
of the LLJ with this front could bring a round of widespread
thunderstorms with heavy rain to much of northern Missouri Monday
evening and overnight. Flood watches may need to be considered by
later shifts once the location of the heaviest rainfall is able to be
better pinned down which right now looks to be near and north of US
36. Increasing shear and strong elevated instability could also yield
strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds
Monday night, particularly across northern Missouri.

By Tuesday the cold front will slide to the southeast of the forecast
area shifting the highest chances for precipitation into the Ozarks.
Cooler and drier air behind the front will bring dry weather and
slightly below average temperatures for Wednesday. This front will
return northward Thursday and Thursday night which could bring
scattered areas of precipitation back into the area. This will also
bring temperatures back into the lower 90s by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of today with
scattered cu between 3-4kft. Tonight expect just scattered mid level
clouds. The only question mark in this TAF is whether or not there
will be scattered storms in the area around and after midnight with a
weak cold front that will move into the area. Some models are
generating convection tonight with this front while others keep a cap
in place and conds remain dry. Consequently, have kept VCTS out of
the TAF at this time but inclusion may be necessary for the 00Z
issuance. In any case, conds will remain VFR overnight and through
the morning hours tomorrow with sct-bkn mid level clouds. Winds today
will be out of the SSW around 15kts with gusts to 25kts this
afternoon. Winds will subside this evening to around 10kts as the
cold front begins to approach. Winds tonight will become light and
variable and will remain that way through the duration as the slow
moving cold front begins to stall across the area.




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