Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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584
FXUS63 KEAX 191957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
157 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 157 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

An elongated trough from Montana down through northern Mexico has
started to slowly progress to the east and interact with the large
ridge currently in place over the midwest. A jet maximum will push
into the northern plains helping to develop a surface low with a
cold frontal boundary extending down into a stationary boundary
between this short wave and the high pressure over the SE portion
of the US from South Dakota down to northern Texas. With Gulf
moisture pumping into the warm side of this boundary a line of
showers and embedded convective weather will develop along the
southern portion of the boundary Sunday overnight. The main areas
of lift will split our general area with the cold frontal boundary
lifting north and the stronger isentropic accent staying to the
south. There will be enough lift and elevated instability
(100-200J/kg) to form up a weak line of showers that push through
the CWA from west to east from 9-15z with another increase in lift
from increased low level jet convergence producing showers and
isolated thunder around 21z along the eastern portion of the CWA.
Precipitation totals will remain relatively low with the western
CWA getting 0.1-0.2" and the western area getting 0.2-0.3" through
Monday night.

Weak southwest flow and warm air advection along with sunny skies
will allow Tuesdays and Wednesday high temperatures to reach into
the mid 70s with many areas possibly breaking records or getting
very close. We have increased temperatures 5-6F higher than the
operational models (GFS specifically) with that current trend
working well the last few days of extreme warm temperatures.
A shortwave will exit the Rockies Thursday night helping to
develop a surface low over southern Kansas. This low develops
quickly with a strong low level jet setting up over Missouri
pushing the warm air advection north into Iowa. This is important
as all the operational models have this low track right towards
that warm air leaving most of our area in the dry slot on the
south side of the warm front. Some areas along the IA/MO border do
look to get rain Thursday night into Friday with temperatures
well above freezing to start off with. As the low tracks to the NE
the colder air eventually moves into the region Friday afternoon
with some possible rain/snow mix along the IA/MO border. This shot
of cold air will bring us back down to reality with highs in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday with wind chills on Saturday
down in the upper teens.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

Currently VFR conditions remain throughout the area with a MVFR
ceiling over central Kansas. Currently this ceiling appears to be
staying to the west, but there is a chance this afternoon the edge
pushes into the region for a couple hours. Currently no MVFR
conditions are in the TAFS until overnight when a frontal boundary
pushes through. Ceilings at this time will drop down to MFVR with
light rain showers and the possibility of isolated thunderstorms
occurring in the area so VCTS is in all TAF locations. Some
guidance has the ceilings dropping below 1000ft at times behind
the boundary, but this far out 1000ft seemed appropriate.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham/Leighton



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