Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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299
FXUS63 KEAX 260526
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

Active weather is expected over the next few days with several
rounds of severe thunderstorms possible.

For tonight, the cold front that is draped across the area, from
southwest to northeast, is expected to sag to and stall along the I-
70 corridor. A strong low-level jet will develop tonight and
intersect this boundary. The combination of forcing from the front
as well as strong, moist isentropic ascent should lead to showers
and storms developing in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor late
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The intensity of this activity is
a little variable/uncertain but there is good agreement amongst the
models in developing some activity. And given the modest instability
and shear, a few strong to severe storms are possible. These storms
should be elevated so large hail will be the biggest concern.
Depending on their intensity and coverage, these could form into a
convective cluster and generally track to the east/southeast through
Tuesday AM. The WRF-ARW is the most robust with this notion but the
NAM supports this idea as well. The GFS and the WRF-NMM, while they
both develop storms, are weaker with not as widespread coverage and
diminish activity through the morning. It`s likely that the weaker,
lower coverage amount doesn`t produce a sufficient cold pool to
sustain new convection or propagate it significantly away from its
initiation point.

Focus then turns to the Tuesday evening and overnight period. There
may be some dependency of this time frame on what happens earlier in
the day. But even the models that are very robust with convection
recover the atmosphere in time for there to be strong instability
for additional storms during the evening and overnight. While the
most intense convection should initiate over central KS, models show
an area of convergence well ahead of the dryline over eastern KS and
western MO. It`s possible this may be a secondary area of
initiation. Regardless, storms are expected to form into more of a
linear mode with bowing segments. strong low-level shear and
helicity may be supportive of embedded tornadoes but damaging winds
and hail look like more likely impacts. This activity should weaken
by early Wednesday AM but strong to potentially severe storms may be
ongoing through the night into the eastern portions of the forecast
area.

The last element to watch before this system finally lifts away is
during the day Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon looks like a decent
setup for 500 mb closed low tornadoes. The warm front will be draped
across northern MO with decent instability along and to the south of
it. The upper low should be to the west over NE. While the more
classic setup looks to be to our northwest, the strong shear along
the front may lead to a few, relatively tornadoes over northern MO.

The forecast settles down Thursday into Friday, but by Saturday,
another round of storms is expected to affect the area. Models show
another closed upper low sitting to our west, with at least parts of
the forecast area within the warm sector. So more rounds of strong
to potentially severe storms are possible Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Active next 24 hours with showers and storms expected to blossom
across eastern KS and western MO over the next 2 to 6 hours and
continue off and on into late morning. Some of these storms could be
strong. Another round of storms is expected Tuesday evening, which
will likely be in the form of a north-south oriented line that will
track slowly from eastern KS into western MO after dark.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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