Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232058

358 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Hot and dry conditions persist across the forecast area on Saturday,
as surface observations all indicate temperatures well into the 90s,
with dewpoints ranging between the middle 60s along and south of
Interstate 70 into the lower to middle 70s across areas north of
Interstate 70. The result is widespread heat index values nearing
100 degrees. By the time the sun sets this evening expect most of
the forecast area to have heat indices well above 100 degrees. With
a lack of any discernible low level boundaries in the area and no
appreciable CU field it`s pretty unlikely at this point that there
will be any afternoon showers, so will go with a dry forecast
through the overnight hours. The only area that might have an
outside chance for some late night/early Sunday morning rain showers
will be far NW Missouri, where a surface boundary will be
approaching from SE Nebraska. At this point it looks like that
boundary will hang up north of the forecast area, so will keep it
dry for now.

Sunday appears to bring a very similar day to the forecast area, as
southerly surface winds across the area signal that the warm front
will be well north of the forecast area. With lack of appreciable
cloud cover through the day on Sunday good insolation and the
aforementioned good warm air advection associated with the southerly
winds will help temperatures rise back into the middle to upper 90s.
Slightly better mixing may occur, resulting in perhaps a touch drier
air, which would in turn cause heat indices to perhaps be a degree
or two cooler for Sunday. However, given the negligible improvement
in hot conditions have decided to extend the heat advisory into at
least Sunday through 8pm. For the Sunday night period, the boundary
that was mentioned earlier could slide a little to the southeast,
bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to far NW Missouri by
Sunday night, however coverage and intensity of these storms appear
to be rather light at this time.

Through the early part of next work week, the same mid and lower
level pattern appears to be well in place. The mid level ridge will
stay entrenched over the Mississippi River Valley, with some decent
W/SW mid level flow around the periphery of the ridge. With the
forecast area under the influence of the ridge adequate mid level
forcing for ascent will be lacking, resulting in at least Monday and
Tuesday being mostly dry, especially across areas along and south of
HWY 36. Regarding the heat, it appears at this point that there
won`t be much difference in the temperature forecast as we go into
Monday and Tuesday. Still expect temperatures to be well into the
90s, with moist enough boundary layer to result in heat indices in
near or above 100 degrees. Regarding headlines for that time period,
it appears possible that near heat advisory criteria will exist
through Tuesday, but with how marginal the forecast temperatures are
for that time, will likely take a look at each individual day for
heat headlines.

There could be a fairly dramatic change in the pattern for the
middle to late part of next week, as the ridge over the forecast
area could break down, allowing for better mid level flow over the
forecast area. By mid to late next week the ECMWF hints at a
shortwave trough moving through the area, which would allow for the
surface boundary to also push through, giving us a break from the
warm/muggy conditions. Along with the better mid level ascent
associated with the trough will come better chances for some
widespread rain for the Wednesday through Friday time period.
Therefore after Tuesday, it appears that the remainder of the week
will bring pleasant temperatures, likely in the 70s and 80s for
highs as a cooler air mass settles into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Generally speaking aviation conditions will be optimal through the
next 24 hours. There could be a few wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph
through the afternoon hours, but didn`t feel that such gusts would be
prevailing, so kept a mention only 10 kt gusts.


KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-



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