Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 162018
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Quiet conditions are expected for the rest of the evening, even as a
weak cold front pushes southeast across the region. Winds behind the
boundary should be relatively weak overnight, and the colder airmass
will be slow to filter down over the next 24-36 hours, resulting in
declining high temperatures through Saturday. A few upper-level
clouds may drift in overnight, but a dry profile below 20 kft will
preclude any thick cloud cover or precipitation as the front passes.
Moisture wrapping around the parent shortwave trough may brush the
northeastern and eastern CWA on Friday, and have increased cloud
cover near our borders and lowered temperatures a bit below guidance
to account for this.
Precipitation chances continue to diminish for Sunday as a second
shortwave trough brushes our northeast, so have eliminated showers
from the forecast for this weekend. Seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions will continue through much of next week until a deeper
trough moves out into the central U.S., but timing of this feature
continues to slow and may hold off until late Thursday or Friday, or
later if the upper low cuts off over the desert Southwest as some
models are beginning to indicate.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. A weak cold
front will drop southeast across the area tonight, switching winds
around to the northwest at speeds around 5 kts between 23z-03z. A
few upper-level clouds may follow behind the front, but bases will
be above 20 kft.