Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Short Range:

Record cold is the primary and immediate concern for Monday and
Tuesday morning. See the CLIMATE section below for the particulars.

A broad and deep upper trough will lie east of the Rockies through
Monday night. This feature will maintain a highway link to
Arctic-type air coming out of central Canada and funnel it southward
through the central U.S.

In the near term a shortwave trough noted in satellite imagery over
eastern NM late this afternoon will lift northeast sending a broken
layer of high clouds across the CWA this evening. A second more
pronounced and dynamic shortwave trough will drop southward through
the Northern Plains tonight and then rotate southeast through the
Upper MS and mid MO Valleys on Monday. An associated cold front
currently stretching from western MN through central NE  will slide
through the CWA late tonight and reinforce the unseasonably cold
air mass which has been in place for the past four days. Stratocumulus
cloud cover will spread into the region after its passage and this
cloud cover will help keep temperatures from being even colder.

Inspection of NAM/GFS Bufr soundings reveals a very steep lapse rate
within the boundary layer. So whatever diurnal warming we get in the
morning hours will likely result in a mostly cloudy sky from late
morning through the afternoon. Additionally, we should see scattered
snow showers or flurries during this same time. While one can`t rule
a few pockets of measurable snow with any heavier snow shower will
leave PoPs below 15%. The strong cold air advection and tight
surface pressure gradient will also result in a windy day with wind
chills ranging from below zero to the single digits. Good chance
Kansas City and St. Joseph will set a record low high temperature.

As high pressure builds into the region the stage will be set for
the coldest temperatures of the Fall season by Tuesday morning.
Record low temperatures will not be just broken but smashed. Snow
cover on the ground over northern MO and parts of west central MO
will allow for even colder readings. Fortunately the winds will be
diminishing. Nonetheless overnight wind chills will be below zero.

As the primary upper trough shifts east on Tuesday we should see a
slight "moderation" in temperatures as winds switch to the west and
southwest. However, temperatures will still average around 20
degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Cold dry conditions will continue to dominated the beginning of the
extended forecast, as we transit the middle of the work week, though
some moderating temperatures and precipitation look to return by
next weekend. Mid-range operational and ensemble solutions for the
coming work week show the center and eastern parts of the Nation
still under the influence of a highly amplified flow, with a
significant trough remaining in place through Thursday; after which
the pattern will flatten out a bit as another shortwave trough
tunnels through a ridge to our west and the eastern CONUS trough
axis swings out over the Atlantic, allowing temperatures to climb
back towards normal by next Sunday along with bringing a potential
for precipitation.

A quick series of shortwaves will zip through the base of the
prevailing eastern CONUS trough Wednesday into Thursday, possibly
bringing a quick undulation in temperatures. The leading wave will
likely allow a bit of warm air advection to the surface, allowing
temperatures to moderate possibly Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
GFS and ECMWF both point at a secondary trough sliding through in
the trough that will then quickly induce strong cold air advection
through the eastern Plains States; and given the timing, likely
resulting in falling temperatures through the daylight hours
Wednesday. Still, a midnight high Wednesday morning might allow a 40
degree temperatures to be realized across parts of east central
Kansas or west central Missouri. However, confidence on temperatures
even as warm as the upper 30s for Wednesday is low owing to the cold
conditions currently in place, and the modest snow cover that should
still be in place to our south by Wednesday. However, this should be
the last hoorah for this current round of cold weather as the
parent trough feeding the cold air south will beginning shifting
east taking the cold air advection with it. Therefore, expect our
run of below normal temperatures to persist through the end of the
work week, but expect to see conditions warming going into the
weekend as a shortwave trough undercuts the western Ridge moving
through the Four Corners Region.

Next weekend...as the flow flattens out locally, and a shortwave
trough moves into the Four Corners, temperatures will quickly start
to moderate with highs in the 40s possible Saturday and perhaps even
a 50 degree high in east central Kansas next Sunday. However, this
will also come with an increasing chance in precipitation. As the
eastern CONUS trough moves off and the flow flattens out the surface
ridge along the Gulf Coast will move east also, opening up the
Central Plains to the potential for decent Gulf moisture return.
Confidence in general precipitation is decent for next weekend, but
specifics will need a lot of work late this week to determine
precipitation type; though at this point forecast temperatures for
next weekend look warm enough to warrant mostly a rain forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Cold front will make its way south through the rest of the evening
hours and pass through the terminals around midnight Sunday night.
While overnight gusty winds are typically uncommon this FroPa might
actually bring some gusty NW winds upon it`s passage. During the
daytime hours on Monday gusty winds will increase in magnitude,
perhaps obtaining gusts of around 30 kts. Also during the day on
Monday, there could be scattered snow showers in the area. Their
locations will be difficult to predict this far out, considering they
look to be somewhat convective in nature. Could conceivably introduce
a VCSH group to the 06z aviation forecast to cover the potential for
snow showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 607 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

November 17 Record Min Max...

Site...........Value/Year/Forecast

Kansas City.......24/1891/21
St. Joseph........26/1951/19

-----------------------------------------

November 18 Record Low...

Site...........Value/Year/Forecast

Kansas City.......14/1903/7
St. Joseph........16/1989/5

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton
CLIMATE...MJ/Leighton






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