Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 022133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Deep nearly vertical cyclone with surface low centered over
northeast KS just northeast of CNK will lift northeast as it opens
up as a positively tilted trough overnight. We`ll soon say good-bye
to the warm sector and it`s early Spring-like temps as the associated
cold front barrels east this evening. Windy conditions will continue
south of the MO River until around sunset as a 40-50kt southwesterly
low-level jet shifts out of the CWA.

Some late afternoon/early evening convective showers over northwest
MO will give way to lower ceilings this evening. The extensive wrap
around stratus deck will be slow to exit the CWA tomorrow due to the
positive-tilted orientation of the departing trough. Inspection of
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings show some ice in the clouds later tonight so
can`t rule out pockets of flurries and snow showers with a dusting
possible here and there from any of the heavier snow showers.
Initially any precipitation would be rain till temperatures drop into
the middle 30s. Gusty northwest winds on the backside of the low will
diminish slowly from west to east late tonight.

Combo of the clouds and moderately strong cold air advection will
keep a lid on temperatures, likely not getting above freezing north
of the MO River. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills
in the teens and 20s.

The rest of the forecast through the weekend will be marked by a
couple of fast moving upper troughs alternating with a flattening
upper ridge between systems. Moisture looks to be lacking for much
more than clouds and trace type precipitation with the passing of
each wave. The first system could reach us as early as Friday
afternoon and the second and stronger system Sunday afternoon.
Overall, expect to see temperatures moderate into the 40s from
Thursday through Sunday. The second stronger upper trough will
likely drag down another batch of cold air from central Canada
leading to below normal temperatures next Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon hours with
increased winds out of the south gusting to around 25kts. Additional
precipitation is expected along the backside of a storm system
tonight as it exits the area to the east. Will likely take the form
of a wintry mix, with the greatest chances of development over NW
Missouri. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during this time and
linger through much of Wednesday morning. Strong winds will also
persist as they turn northwesterly through the end of the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh


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