Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221123

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Issued at 306 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Winds have switched around from the south this morning in response to
a broad upper ridge building to our west which is pushing a surface
high to our east. This will allow temperatures to warm to about 10
degrees warmer than yesterday`s readings with highs in the 40s. This
ridge will spread eastward Monday and Tuesday, resulting in mostly
clear skies and temperatures rising back to a few degrees above
normal with highs in the 50s both days.

By Wednesday a deep trough will begin digging into the Rockies
bringing a fetch of southerly flow and increasing moisture into the
Plains. This stream of low-level moisture in a low-level warm air
advection regime could bring areas of light rain or drizzle into the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Heavier rain will likely
overspread the entire area on Thanksgiving Day as this stream of
moisture increases and persistent deep lift arrives ahead of the
advancing upper-level trough. Juxtaposition of strong upper level
divergence and persistent low-level warm air advection could bring
several periods of rain throughout the entire day with some areas
seeing up to an inch of rain.

A quick-moving cold front will push through the area Thursday evening
and bring precipitation to an end. There`s a chance enough moisture
could linger behind frontal passage to produce some light wintry
precipitation Thursday night, similar to what occurred across
western and central Missouri early Saturday. Any accumulation would
be minimal, if anything at all, and no significant impacts are
expected. Behind the front, dry weather and seasonably chilly
temperatures will return for the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR through the next 24 hours. Winds are in
the process of turning south-southwesterly where they will remain
through the afternoon, becoming more westerly after dark.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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