Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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238
FXUS63 KEAX 090530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The area remains in a strongly cyclonic flow regime with trailing PV
slowly working east. This will likely keep isolated to scattered
flurries and snow showers going through at least this this evening.
But there will be a general downward trend in intensity and coverage
as the main storm system moves away and low level lapse rates/mixing
decreases. Winds will also begin to diminish later this afternoon and
this evening. With winds currently close to and in some cases
exceeding our criteria, will keep the advisory going as is. The
gusts should start to decrease though as sunset approaches and
mixing decreases.

Overall, the rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet. For Wednesday
afternoon and evening, in our far northeastern zones, there is some
indication that we may be clipped by a weak clipper system. There is
a decent area of transient frontogensis that clips the Kirksville
area and with temperatures well below freezing in that part of the
forecast they could see some light snow. Also, there may be a tight
temperature gradient Wednesday with the southwestern portions of the
forecast area warming into the 40s.

For this weekend, models are in good agreement plunging a strong
1040+ mb surface high into the Plains and Midwest. Have trended
quite a bit colder for Saturday`s highs and now looks like highs
won`t make it out the 20s for the KC area. There`s also an
indication of a weak shortwave trough moving through the area Sunday
into Monday. The GFS keeps this relatively dry while the ECMWF is
much more wet. Have maintained some low PoPs to account for the
passage of this system and the discrepancy in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter



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