Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 310451

1151 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A surface cold front has pushed through the forecast area, with
cooler and drier air advecting into the region. Behind the surface
front, an expansive area of clouds have aided in keeping
temperatures well below normal, with afternoon readings in the 50s
and 60s commonplace. While a few pockets of drizzle will be possible
through tonight as the upper trough axis passes through, the large
majority of the area will remain dry, with all measurable
precipitation to the east of the forecast area. Readings will cool
into the middle 40s to middle 50s by Sunday morning. Temperatures on
Sunday will be several degrees warmer than today, with highs in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. More notably will be the gradual clearing
skies during the morning hours, with mostly sunny skies expected by
late afternoon. Overnight lows Sunday night will once again be cool
with the dry airmass, clear skies, and light easterly winds, with
readings in the lower 50s.

Overall, weak upper level ridging will build into the region Monday
into much of the work week. Surface winds will gradually veer to
southeasterly, with an increase in moisture each day. Likewise,
maximum temperatures will increase each day this week, with highs
warming well into the middle 80s for many locations Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances look low at this point as the strongest
dynamics will reside well to the north and west of the CWA. A slight
increase in thunderstorm chances may occur late in the week as a few
weaker disturbances approach the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR conditions are expected tonight and through late Sunday morning.
There is some uncertainty though with how low ceilings will get
though tonight. Guidance suggest that IFR ceilings will redevelop
later tonight and upstream sites have already lowered below 1K ft. So
there is a reasonable level of confidence that there will be IFR
ceilings build back in. Timing is the biggest uncertainty. Ceilings
do look to break up tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions by the
later half of the period.




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