Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Record cold temperatures today and tonight continues to be the main
story in the short term. See CLIMATE section below for the records
for today and tonight.

This morning a reinforcing cold front is extending from Quincy,
Illinois to Joplin, MO. Gusty northwest winds lagging behind this
front this morning are ongoing across eastern Nebraska. These gusty
northwest winds will be the rule over the forecast area today
funneling in arctic air originating across the Canadian Plains.
Strong CAA in concert with NW flow aloft and a broken to overcast
stratocu deck will be the main players in provide for record cold
high temperatures this afternoon. Highs will range from the upper
teens to lower 20s and factoring in the strong northwest winds, wind
chill values will be in the single digits. There will also be the
chance from some flurries or light snow showers across the area
today. NAM and GFS bufr soundings continue to show steep low level
lapse rate with moist air between 2500ft-3500ft which coincides with
the dendritic snow growth zone. As such have kept that wording in
the forecast today with sub 15% POPs as no accumulation is
expected.

For tonight, did raise temperatures a degree or two as a
ridge of Canadian high pressure sinks south through the Central
Plains. The ridge axis should remain to the west of the CWA keeping
winds from going calm and not allowing temperatures to really
bottom out. Temperatures across the Dakotas this morning are
ranging from the upper single digit to the lower teens. Have used
this as a proxy for overnight lows since temperatures mostly likely
will not moderate much since air will be traveling over an early
season shallow snowpack. With lows ranging from the mid single
digits to the lower teens and modest west-northwesterly winds, wind
chill values will be in the single digits below zero.

Continued strong northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures very
cold on Tuesday. However, the aforementioned surface high pressure
ridge will sink south of the area on Tuesday and winds will pick up
from the west-southwest. This will help temperatures "warm" into the
mid 20s to lower 30s which is still 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Tuesday night an upper level trough will begin to dig southward
through the Canadian Plains. This will force a cold front into the
Upper Midwest extending back into Central Plains. Southwest winds
will be on the increase Tuesday night out ahead of the front with
increasing cloud cover. As such, temperature will actually rise late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Lows will range from the low to mid
20s. The cold front will quickly move through the forecast area on
Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the front will keep
temperatures from rising much from overnight lows as highs will
range from the upper 20s to upper 30s. Wednesday night high pressure
will build into the region and lows will fall back into the teens
and lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Dry and continued below normal temps to prevail early in the period
as sfc high pressure remains parked across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should allow daytime highs to only climb into the upper 30s to
lower 40s both Thursday and Friday as flow remains from the
northeast...which still remains anywhere between 5-10 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

Fcst becomes much more interesting by the start of the upcoming
weekend as a southern stream trough begins working through the Desert
Southwest and eventually the southern Plains. Out ahead of this
feature...southerly low-level flow will finally become reestablished
across our region in a developing warm air advection regime as sfc
low pressure develops over the State of Texas. Return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico out ahead of the sfc reflection combined with decent
dynamics from the wave itself and upper divergence for a well-
established zonal jetstreak...will allow for developing shwrs as
far north as our region by Saturday. Models in fairly decent agreement
that sfc low will track northeast along the I-44 corridor which
should allow enough warm air to remain in place over our region to
keep precip predominately in the form of rain through the
weekend...before cooler air finally begins to invade Sunday
night/early Monday as low exits to our northeast. For now...models
paint pretty decent QPF values over our area which suggests a fairly
widespread light to moderate rain event for the lwr Missouri Rvr Vly.
With the return of southerly flow...high temps over the weekend will
likely warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s...which promises to be
welcomed relief from the record setting cold experienced earlier in
the week.

Main cold front to swing through the region on Monday as another
trough drops south through the Plains. This will again bring below
normal temps and a chance for developing snow shwrs by the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

This morning a few passing clouds around 4-5kft will be possible.
Later this morning expect stratocu clouds to develop at the terminals.
Models differ slightly on cig heights this morning and those subtle
difference could be the difference btn being VFR or MVFR. In any case,
bkn cigs will be right around 3kft from late this morning until this
evening. There will also be the potential for flurries or snow
showers with the stratocu deck however, the lack of cig/vis restrictions
associated with any snow shower or flurries will preclude TAF inclusion
at this time. Cigs will sct out tonight before becmg clr. Winds out
of the NW this morning btn 10-15kts will pick up to 15-20kts late
this morning and afternoon with gusts to 25-30kts. Winds will subside
tonight diminishing to around 10kts before backing to the west after
midnight and further diminishing to 5kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 607 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

November 17 Record Min Max...

Site...........Value/Year/Forecast

Kansas City.......24/1891/19
St. Joseph........26/1951/19

-----------------------------------------

November 18 Record Low...

Site...........Value/Year/Forecast

Kansas City.......14/1903/8
St. Joseph........16/1989/7

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73
CLIMATE...73






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