Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1101 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CST THU DEC 1 2016

The big picture for this forecast period is the multiple rounds of
precipitation expected in the forecast area starting this weekend.

The next couple of days will be rather quiet as the low pressure
currently over eastern Canada continues to push northeast and a
surface high moves in over the forecast area. The low clouds in
northern MO have kept temperatures slightly cooler there than the
rest of MO but the clouds are expected to move northeast out of MO
tonight giving is mostly clear skies tomorrow. Temperatures the five
days or so will be near normal with highs ranging from the low 40s to
low 50s and lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.

The upper level trough currently in the Northwest US will approach
the area Saturday. The trough will break apart into a cut off low
and shortwave as it crosses the Rockies. The cut off low will move
into the Southwest US and remain there until early next week, while
the shortwave trough will continue moving east across the Northern
Plains. This shortwave and a shortwave to our south (ejected from cut
off low) will give us our first round of precipitation Saturday night
through late Sunday morning. Soundings indicate most of the
precipitation will be rain as temps and wet bulb temps remain above
freezing in the surface to 900mb layer. There is potential, however,
to see some rain/snow mix in far northern MO as surface temps and wet
bulb temps approach freezing early Sunday morning. Any precipitation
that falls will be light and little accumulation is expected no
matter the p-type.

Our second round of precipitation will be when the aforementioned
cut off low in the Southwest US begins to move northeast and becomes
an open shortwave trough. This feature will move across the lower
Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys Monday night. The bulk of the
moisture will remain well south of our area but we still expect to
see light precipitation across much of our area Monday night into
Tuesday. Again, it will mostly be in the form of rain with some
rain/snow mix possible in northern MO early Tuesday morning.

This is the point in time where the model solutions really begin diverge
from one another. Right now, the GFS has an upper level trough over
the Rockies pushing a cold front through and ending the precipitation
by Tuesday afternoon. Whereas, the ECMWF brings the upper level
trough and cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon,
continuing our precipitation chances through Wednesday evening. This
would give us our third round of precipitation with the potential
for some snow mostly in northern MO. Because this time frame is still
5-6 days out, a lot can change, so for now have gone with a blend
for precipitation chances and p-type Tuesday through Wednesday. Right
now, we anticipate precipitation chances sticking around Tuesday
through Wednesday with light rain changing to light snow during the
overnight hours (mainly along and northwest of I-35), and then back
to light rain during the day Wednesday.

Despite the model differences with timing, location, and
precipitation chances next week, they do agree on one thing...cold
arctic air will fill in behind the cold front. This will give highs
in the mid-20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens by Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST THU DEC 1 2016

VFR conditions with variable to calm winds are expected throughout
the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham/73


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