Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 311145
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.Update...
Issued at 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Have increased PoPs and expanded coverage of morning showers over
the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Isentropic ascent has been stronger than
expected with areas of showers expanding in coverage and intensity
just east of the KC Metro into central MO. While no lightening has
been detected the showers have been very efficient rain makers,
almost tropical like, as almost 1/2" of rain fell at the office in
less than 15 minutes.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Today - Wednesday:

A weak h7 shortwave and isentropic ascent on the 305K surface have
generated a good deal of mid clouds over the CWA as well as light
showers over the far eastern and southern counties. These showers
should dissipate/exit the eastern CWA by mid morning.

Otherwise, upstream convection over NE and northern KS will continue
to weaken as its outflow boundary surges well east of the
convection. This activity was part of a much larger area of
convection which formed along the Northern/Central Plains cold
front. Will need to monitor the eventual resting place of this
boundary as it could be a focus for convective redevelopment during
the afternoon. The cold front will also be a likely focus for new
storms this afternoon. This feature will be slow to move into the
CWA as it awaits the arrival of a fairly strong upper trough
currently rotating southeast into the Northern High Plains.

The airmass ahead of both boundaries is expected to become
moderately unstable by afternoon with GFS generated surface based
CAPEs exceeding 2500 J/kg. The severe potential will once again be
quite limited by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range. However, an
isolated storm or two could briefly reach severe thresholds and drop
marginally severe hail or localized damaging downburst type winds.
In addition, locally very heavy rains will be possible as progged
precipitable water values exceed 1.5 inches which climatologically
is over the 90th percentile. Have adjusted highest PoPs to more
closely mimic the location of the two above boundaries with lower
end chances PoPs over the eastern CWA until early evening when the
western MO convection arrives.

Convection will end from northwest to southeast but be rather slow
in doing so owing to the slow eastward progression of the cold
front. So, will hang onto chance PoPs on Wednesday over the
southeast 1/2.

Wednesday night - Monday:

Drier more stable high pressure will overspread the region Wednesday
night and Thursday resulting in very pleasant conditions with
seasonal temperatures.

Friday night and Saturday will see a deepening shortwave trough drop
southeast through the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. This will
likely send another cold front through the region. While moisture
looks to be limited the strengthening upper level dynamics and low-
level convergence could yield some spotty convection along the
front.

Slightly cooler air will filter across the CWA on Sunday into Monday
as high pressure again builds in.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

An area of showers with brief/locally very heavy rains will affect
portions of west central and central MO through around 14z. Towards
the noon hour scattered convection is expected to form from northwest
through west central MO and then advance eastward towards central MO
by early evening. Generally VFR ceilings but in heavier pockets of
showers and storms brief local MVFR ceilings. The convection will
likely end across northwest MO early this evening but rain chances
will continue over west central into central and northeast MO through
the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ
Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ



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