Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 280926
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
426 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Issued at 420 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016
Upper ridge remains over the central US keeping eastern Kansas and
western Missouri dry through the weekend and into early next week.
Some patchy fog again this morning but with the potential for
stratus, moisture limited to western CWA, and the mixing...should
not see widespread or LIFR visibility enough to warrant advisory.
Breezy today through Saturday as surface gradient tightens and mixing
after sunrise results in winds out of the south southwest gusting to
around 25 to 30 mph. Most favorable area will be northwest Missouri
thoughout the day until around sunset. Winds will increase again on
Saturday as similar conditions prevail.
Temperatures will flirt with record max today...but believe will stay
a few degrees below. With the unseasonable temperatures and
winds...there is a slight concern about fire weather...however, a
pool of low level moisture in southwest portion of the CWA will
advect over the area and result in relative humidities well above
criteria for any highlights.
The upper ridge flattens a little on Saturday and a few short wave
troughs ripple through, but they will stay well north. Temperatures
will once again reach into the lower 80s as the boundary level flow
remains out of the southwest.
A weak cool front moves through as ridge axis retrogrades a little to
the west early Sunday morning. This will keep temperatures a little
cooler than Saturday...only around 70F deg.
Flow becomes more cyclonic towards at the start of the work week and
a warm front moves into the area. Temperatures back to around 80F deg
on Monday. Moisture is limited early so no precipitation until late
Tuesday into Wednesday. The front may become stationary across
central Missouri so we may see a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms late into the work week, when a cold front moves
through and brings an end to the precipitation later on Thursday.
Temperatures will cool off with this front back to around 70F degrees
by Wednesday and Thursday.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016
Frontal boundary beginning to lift north across southern Kansas this
evening with fog now developing southeastern Kansas. As this front
continues to lift north...fcst models still insist in developing IFR
cigs during the early morning hours. Some potential for reduced
visibilities as well...but a weak to moderate pressure gradient may
be enough to prevent VSBYs from falling off the cliff. VFR conditions
to return by 15z with breezy southwest winds expected through the