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000
FXUS63 KEAX 251133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Early this morning the radar is active north of the area with a two
complexes of thunderstorms evident. The first is moving from
southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and is decaying
however, this may bring some light showers or an isolated
thunderstorm into extreme northwestern Missouri early this morning.
A second complex is moving through central Iowa and is moving
southeastward. This complex has held together overnight and it may
clip the northeastern CWA bring thunderstorms during the morning
hours.

By late morning, showers will exit the region and we will watch the
heat build across the area. Cooler temperatures will be across the
northeastern CWA where morning showers and clouds will hold on
longer with warmer temperatures across the western CWA. 850mb
temperature this afternoon will range from 22C-26C...this will yield
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
eastern CWA and highs in the mow to mid 90s across the western CWA.
Factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat indices
will range from 102 to 107 across the western CWA. AS such a heat
advisory has been issued through 7PM this evening.

Tonight, a cold front will approach the area and stall from southern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas. A
shortwave is expected to move across Iowa and into northeastern
Missouri. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms across the
northeastern CWA after midnight tonight.

Saturday, the area remains in the warm sector where 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 22C-26C allowing for highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will again be in the lower 70s yielding
heat indices from 100 to 105. Any storm develop should be suppressed
by a cap in place during the day. Saturday night, a strong upper
level trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This will force the cold front through the area.
Forcing along this front Saturday night continue to look weak as the
better upper level support remains north of the CWA. However, if
storms can initiate there is the potential for storms to become
severe as conditions will be quite unstable with 2500-3500J/kg of
CAPE available.

By Sunday morning the cold front will have shifted south of the area
while the upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will be much more manageable with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. A secondary cold front will shift through the area
early on Monday with much cooler July air in behind it with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday the aforementioned
upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley leaving the area under
cooler northwest flow aloft and temperatures remain cool with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday will provide the next chance
for precipitation beyond Saturday night as models are advertising a
upper shortwave moving into the area in northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 25

VFR conds are expected thru the duration of the TAF period with just
sct high cirrus expected. Winds will be out of the south btn 10-15kts
until mid-morning when they will increase to 15-20kts with gusts to
25kts. Winds will subside this evening to around 10kts will remaining
out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73