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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210354
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

The forecast remains on track with dangerous heat to continue
through Saturday afternoon. The upper ridge remains firmly in place
through this hot period, limiting precipitation chances through at
least Saturday morning. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the
middle to upper 90s both days, and with a humid airmass in place,
heat indicies will continue to peak in the 105 to 110 range. The
upper ridge begins to flatten on Saturday as a cold front approaches
northern Missouri. H85 winds will veer ahead of the front, with the
main thermal axis pointed across the CWA. Depending on cloud
cover, high temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Saturday
versus Friday.

With the breakdown of the upper ridge, a strong shortwave trough
will move from Alberta to the Great Lakes states during the weekend,
with an accompanying cold front projected to slide southward through
the forecast area late Saturday. Thunderstorms will become
increasingly probable Saturday evening into early morning Sunday
as the front moves through the area. While the bulk of the
stronger winds aloft will lag post-frontal, moderate instability
will be present for a few strong storms within the first few hours
of convective initiation Saturday evening.

Precipitation will exit the southern half of the forecast area
Sunday morning, with surface high pressure building into the
region Monday into Tuesday, bringing cooler and dry conditions.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with highs near seasonable
levels, with even cooler air advecting into the forecast area with
highs in the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.
Unfortunately this cool period will be short-lived as the pattern
evolves back to a strong upper ridge centered over the central
High Plains, with hot and humid conditions expected to return
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

Clear skies and south southwest winds around 10 kts will continue
through the period at all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Laflin