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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
802 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017

A threat for widespread severe weather is looking more likely across
the forecast area tomorrow as model solutions continue to come into
better agreement. Storms are developing over northeastern
Colorado this afternoon and are expected to develop into an MCS that
will move across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska overnight.
This decaying MCS will approach the northwestern CWA late tomorrow
morning. Also, tomorrow morning a warm front will lift across the
southern CWA and set up near the I-70 corridor. Warm air advection
showers may be possible during the morning hours as the front lifts
northward. However, as we get into the early afternoon hours, a mid
level shortwave will move into the area sparking convection along
the warm front and initiate convection in northeastern Kansas/
northwestern Missouri associated with a remnant MCV left over from
the decaying MCS. The environment that these storms develop in
will be conducive to rapid upscale growth with mid-level lapse rates
nearing dry adiabatic. All modes of severe weather will also be
possible with models depicting discrete supercells developing along
the frontal boundary and another complex of storms developing in
association with the MCV. MUCAPE values along and south of the warm
front will range from 2500 to 5000+ J/Kg. 0-6KM shear values will
range from 50-60kts with 0-1KM values around 20kts with curved
hodographs. Factoring in these conditions, initially, very large
hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will be possible. As
storms evolve during the afternoon models suggest that storms will
congeal into another large MCS that will have the capability of
producing very damaging winds as it moves through central Missouri.
These storms will also be very efficient rain producers with PWAT
values on the order of 1.60"-1.80" however, storms should move
quickly enough to preclude a flash flood threat. With these storms
moving so quickly it should narrow the window we will experience
severe weather from early afternoon to early evening. However, light
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Saturday night
before exiting the area by Sunday morning.

The remainder of the holiday weekend (Sunday and Monday) looks to be
much calmer and pleasant with sunny skies and highs in the mid to
upper 70s. As we get into the middle part of next the area is under
northwest flow aloft. Several shortwaves will move through the area
on that northwest flow sparking several chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Temperatures will continue to
remain pleasant through this period with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 801 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Generally VFR but did include window for MVFR cigs as stratus may
develop/move into the area after sunrise. Some chances for
decaying thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours if a
cluster can hold together across Kansas overnight. Otherwise,
main impact to terminal space will be potential for thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours - exact arrival timing remains
uncertain.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair