Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 161139
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
539 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017
Issued at 400 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017
While the focus of this forecast remains on the ejecting circulation
moving northeast across the southern Plains early this morning, the
impacts will be rather minimal compared to the past weekend as
surface temperatures will finally be ranging above freezing.
A large rain shield is sweeping north this morning as the
circulation that brought the weekend icing ejects northeast across
the Plains. Warm air advection with and just ahead of the rain has
resulted in a non-diurnal temperature trend across eastern Kansas
and Missouri overnight. This has resulted in temperatures rising
above freezing in all but extreme north central to northeast
Missouri counties early this morning. Current timing of the
retreating surface freezing line has it moving north of Missouri
around sunrise, thus the threat of icing will finally end. Will
allow the remaining portion of the Ice Storm Warning to expire at 6
AM as a result. However, there might still be a slight chance for
some icing to persist into the post sunrise hours of today thanks to
surfaces that are still below freezing; though even those
surfaces will warm up by mid-morning.
Storms for today wont amount to much more than a good soaking rain.
With precipitable water values around an inch today, expect decent
rainfall totals of a quarter to a half inch with scattered locally
higher amounts. Additionally, might hear some thunder with the rain
today as there is a little bit of instability analyzed in the warm
sector of the ejecting circulation. Otherwise for today, expect
temperatures to range from the 30s in the far northwest corner of
Missouri into the upper 50s across central Missouri thanks to the
warm air advecting in.
Rest of the work week...temperatures will be on the up swing, expect
for Tuesday, as a little cool air returns across Kansas and Missouri
behind the exiting circulation. As for precipitation, looks like the
prevailing storm track will stay to our south through the work week.
The pattern may adjust enough to allow the storm track to move back
north late next weekend.
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017
Combination of IFR to LIFR conditions are prevailing across the
terminals this morning as a large band of rain sweeps north
across Kansas and Missouri. The larger band of rain will end from
south to north this morning, though scattered showers may linger
through the rest of the morning into the afternoon, when then the
center of a upper level circulation moves through likely bringing
enough of a threat of widespread showers to warrant SHRA late in
the afternoon into the evening. CIGs and VIS will come up some
behind the exiting rain, but evening hours might bring both back
down for the overnight hours.
KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ025-
MO...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for