Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 403 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

Strong mid/upper wave is currently pushing through the area today,
which will cause thunderstorms, some severe, well south of the
forecast area today. With the surface trough associated with this
system being south of the forecast area, northeast surface flow is
expected across the area through the next couple days. The influx of
cooler and drier air will keep instability to a minimum, thus
keeping any chances of thunderstorms to a minimum through the
duration of this event. Despite radar returns increasing in
coverage, forecast soundings from areas north of HWY 50 have
indicated that the air below ~10,000 feet is pretty dry and will
take quite a bit of time to overcome that dry air. Cloud layers
above that 10,000 foot layer may generate some precipitation, but it
will likely struggle to make it to the surface with any appreciable
amounts until later tonight when the main trough eventually ejects
into the area. The atmosphere will slowly saturate downward,
bringing lower clouds by around midnight, then perhaps as early as
midnight to 3 am rain could begin to fall. The most likely time
period for rain to fall across the area, especially along and south
of the I-70 corridor, will be in the 3 am through noon Saturday time
frame.  The bulk of the rain fall will likely remain pretty close to
the low level cyclone, so areas much further north than HWY 36
should remain dry through the duration of this event, with rainfall
amounts increasing toward central Missouri. Expect about a tenth to
a quarter inch of rain along I-70, with around an inch to two inches
closer to the I-44 corridor in southern Missouri. Expect this
activity to move out of the area by Saturday afternoon and evening,
ushering in a dry period with cool temperatures through the rest of
the weekend and into early next week as northeast winds allow that
cooler/drier airmass to move in.

By mid week, the surface high will move off to the east and along
the western periphery of the surface high southerly winds will pick
up and bring moisture and warmer air back into the area. While there
could be a few periods of off and on showers through mid week, the
next appreciable chance for rain will likely come late next week as
an active pattern looks to form again. Expect a mid/upper level
trough to form by mid week across the Intermountain West and send a
few impulses through the area in the Thurs/Sat time frame, with the
trough ultimately ejecting eastward by next weekend. During this Thu-
Sun time frame there will be several chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

VFR conditions expected. Cigs will continue to lower during the
evening. Northern terminus of MVFR cigs should remain just south of
the KC Metro overnight tonight, with a few sct clouds near 3kft
possible near terminals. Otherwise, widely scattered light showers
will increase in coverage this evening and encompass terminal
space prior to midnight. Improving conditions are expected by
mid-morning Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Blair



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