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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Broad ridging over the Mississippi Valley and deep southwest flow
aloft over the eastern Rockies will continue to result in above
normal temperatures and humid conditions through at least Saturday
for the entirety of the CWA. Afternoon mixing should slightly
reduce dewpoints and keep heat indices from exceeding the triple
digit mark, but only by a few degrees, especially this afternoon.

By Sunday, the upper pattern will begin to transition eastward and
diminish the thermal axis over the Plains, helping temperatures to
drop a few degrees. In addition, cloud cover may increase as wide-
spread convection develops over the High Plains and cirrus streams
northeastward, potentially also limiting daytime heating by a few
degrees. The upper trough edging into the central CONUS this
weekend will continue to push eastward early next week, sending a
surface cold front through the forecast area sometime Monday night
or Tuesday. This is a bit of a delay from previous forecasts
likely due to the persistence and strength of the upper high over
the eastern U.S., however some pre-frontal convection is possible
Monday afternoon, effectively extending the potential for precip
with this system from Monday through the eventual frontal passage
Tuesday. Additional, lower precipitation chances extend into
Wednesday if the front stalls near the southern periphery of the
CWA, then the system departs fully by the latter half of the work
week.

Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front,
bringing highs back to near or slightly below their seasonal
average in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few cumulus
clouds are expected this afternoon with gusty south winds. The
clouds and the gusts will diminish around sunrise with winds
remaining from the south between 5 and 10 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB