Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon
will bring the forecast area abruptly back into autumn for the next
several days. Northwest flow will continue to allow colder air to
filter in through Wednesday, resulting in even cooler highs for
Wednesday afternoon, especially in the east. Mainly dry conditions
are expected in this flow regime, although a few early morning
sprinkles are possible in the next few hours as upper trough passes
over. Patchy frost still looks possible early Wednesday morning as
surface high pressure filters into northern Missouri, mainly north of
the MO river where lows are expected to dip into the mid 30s.

Have added in a very slight chance of isolated showers on Thursday
as a shortwave trough passes through the region -- continuity has
been good with this feature, and although moisture is limited, some
very light precipitation looks possible. Temperatures should be a
bit warmer Thursday as southerly flow briefly returns ahead of the
shortwave trough, but falling temperatures are expected during the
afternoon and increased cloud cover should hold highs in the 60s.

Thursday`s trough will continue to deepen and dive southeast across
the eastern U.S. during the late week/weekend period, ushering cold
air into the CWA, especially across our east. The first hard freeze
of the year is possible east/northeast of a line from Maryville to
Moberly, and frost looks possible for the entire rest of the CWA as
lows dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s early Saturday morning.

A brief return to warmer temperatures looks likely for Sunday and
especially Monday ahead of the next system, which is our next chance
for any notable rainfall across the region. Low pressure will lift
out of Rockies on Sunday, heading into the Dakotas Monday and
sending a slow-moving cold front into the forecast area sometime
Monday or Monday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Sunday night (initially with WAA/isentropic lift ahead
of the boundary) to early Tuesday morning as the front passes, but
timing could change slightly as this system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
expected through this evening before becmg clr tonight. Winds will
be out of the northwest around 10kts this afternoon before becmg lgt
and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73






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