Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251133
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to percolate across the
southeastern half of the CWA this morning, in an area of ample
instability and elevated frontogenesis. This environment will
translate southeast with time as surface high pressure bulges into
the region from the northwest, continually limiting the northward
extent of new convective initiation with time. Very weak shear, a
high freezing level, and the post-surface-frontal boundary layer
will keep the severe weather chances low; however, storms do appear
fairly outflow dominant, and will need to make sure strong cores do
not translate gusty winds to the surface during their collapse.

After storms depart the region, cooler temperatures and quieter
conditions are expected for the remainder of the day as surface high
pressure filters in. The cold front which sunk through the area last
evening will remain south of the forecast area and eventually wash
out; however, surface flow will gradually return to the southeast as
high pressure continues its southeastward drift through midweek.
Thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday as a shortwave trough
digs across the forecast area, and will continue on-and-off as
several additional waves drop through the region in northwest flow.
The overall pattern is not supportive of organized convection or
heavy rain, but the cooler, slightly wetter pattern will bring some
relief to the hot, dry stagnation of the previous week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the bulk of
the shower/storm activity remaining south of the terminals. A few
very light showers could creep near KIXD within the next 2 hours, but
should then sink southward, and the probability of these reaching the
TAF site was too low to warrant a mention in the forecast. Broken to
overcast ceilings above 10 kft will gradually clear out from north to
south late this afternoon and this evening leaving skies clear for
the overnight period, and light northeast winds will gradually veer
to the east through the day.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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