Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73






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