Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KEAX 111931

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Issued at 231 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

The only weather concern over the next few days deals with the
potential for very high fire danger tomorrow afternoon. Details
regarding that can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

After a summer-like warm up today, a cold front will move through
the region tonight. This usher in a much drier air mass while
cooling temperatures back to the 70s, which is still above normal
for this time year. Upstream soundings show a very dry atmosphere
and with the strongest forcing associated with the upper wave
lifting well to the north, the frontal passage should be dry. Strong
subsidence in the wake of the front should result in strong downward
momentum transfer and as a result strong and gusty northwesterly
winds are expected through the day Monday.

The region will remain in a northwesterly flow regime through the
end of the week. So once we cool down Monday, there will be very
little difference in the air mass through the middle of the week. By
Thursday though, warm advection should once again lead to well above
normal temperatures ahead of the next frontal passage. Models are in
good agreement with timing that front through the area Thursday
night into Friday. There is also some agreement in developing
isolated to scattered showers along the front over the southern half
of the forecast area. For now, think there is enough of a chance to
carry some small PoPs in the forecast for Thursday night.
Temperatures then cool off for the weekend but are still close to
normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Only concern for aviation
will be the winds. Winds should become gusty out of the south to
southwest this afternoon with speeds in the 10 - 15 kt range and
gusts to around 20 - 25 kts. These will slacken some around sunset
but then will shift to the northwest overnight as a front moves
through. The frontal passage itself doesn`t look to bring much of an
increase in wind speeds, just the directional change. It won`t be
until later in the morning, when strong subsidence develops behind
the front, that winds really start to increase. We should winds
around 15 kts gusting to around 25 kts for most locations across
northeastern Kansas and northwestern and northern Missouri.


Issued at 231 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Very high fire danger is expected tomorrow afternoon. A cold front
will move through the area tonight and advect much drier air into
the region. Strong subsidence behind the front will result in strong
northwesterly surface winds. Minimum afternoon humidity values will
range from the mid 20% to the mid 30% range with winds sustained
around 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. These elements are
borderline for critical fire danger and with fuels not completely
cured feel the critical fire weather conditions won`te be met
tomorrow afternoon. So for now no critical fire weather products are
needed and will continue to mention the very high fire danger in the
HWO Briefing packet and fire weather forecast.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


FIRE WEATHER...CDB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.