Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1103 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Strong winds and fire weather concerns remain the primary concern
through this afternoon, but should progressively improve as higher
humidity moves in from the north northwest. Stratus will continue
to spread across the region this evening before shifting off to
the east while also eroding from west to east, allowing skies to
clear for a chilly night in the 20s.

See-saw temperatures will continue through the forecast period as
a series of shortwave troughs pass through the central US.
Currently, the troughs are progged to pass through on Wednesday,
Thursday night, and Saturday night, all which will be mainly dry
and at most could be accompanied by a few sprinkles or flurries.
No major hazardous weather is anticipated in the forecast period,
but fire weather concerns will need to be evaluated with each
frontal passage due to very dry fuels and no significant precip
chances in the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Gusty northwesterly surface winds will taper off early in the
forecast period, while remaining near 7 to 10 kts heading into the
morning and early afternoon hours. At that time, northwesterly
winds will turn southwesterly and weaken slightly, eventually
becoming more southerly by the end of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 400 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017

Very high fire danger is expected today across much of the area.
First, fuels are very dry. Second, winds will shift to the
northwest late this morning and should be between 20-30 mph with
gusts reaching and exceeding 30-35 mph through tonight. The
strongest winds will be in northwest MO and northeast KS. Finally,
relative humidities should bottom out early this afternoon with
values 25% or less in southern MO and KS, near 30% in central
MO/KS, and in the 40s along the MO/IA border. These values should
gradually increase for the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

It is worth noting though that this system`s attendant cold front
is currently scheduled to move through the area late this morning,
with lower-end mid-level clouds moving in from the north in the
early afternoon. If the front and clouds move in quicker or
slower, the forecast may need to be altered as this would affect
high temperatures and relative humidities. Even if the timing does
change, fire weather will still be a concern with the strong
winds and very dry fuels. Therefore, outdoor burning is highly
discouraged today across the entire area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh
Fire Weather...Grana


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