Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







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