Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 012002
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.