Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 111952 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.
TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW GUSTS FROM 16 TO 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH
AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH GUSTS FROM 16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY.

SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
APPEARS THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY AS
SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW AND INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF MAY ACTUALLY NOT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
LEVELING OFF EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...AND FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWEST HALF.

IF THINGS CLEAR OUT QUICK ENOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE A FREEZE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ALWAYS...THIS COULD CHANGE...SO KEEP
MONITORING THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...WITH FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
THERE COULD BE A FREEZE AT SOME LOCALES IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN
ENERGY/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO GO WELL TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THIS...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  60  72 /  10  10  10  50
CAMDEN AR         57  77  63  78 /  10  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       56  74  57  69 /  10  10  10  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  78  64  75 /  10  10  10  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  79  62  76 /  10  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     58  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      57  74  64  73 /  10  10  10  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  78  58  73 /  10  10  10  60
NEWPORT AR        60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     58  77  63  78 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  60
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  70 /  10  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      60  77  63  75 /  10  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...46







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