Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 101752
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1152 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.AVIATION...
The cold front continues to move toward northwest Arkansas...and
lies from northeast to southeast Oklahoma. Expect some clearing in
the north this afternoon and overcast conditions to continue in
the south through the period. Strong gusty winds will continue in
most locations through the afternoon...then subside around 00Z.
The front will stall in the north early tonight and move back to
the north by Wednesday morning. Small chances of showers continue
as disturbances move south of the front. Expect patchy fog central
and south in the morning as well. VFR conditions...in the
north...to IFR...in the south...are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017
)

UPDATE...
A cold front continues to approach from the northwest...and is
currently in northwest Oklahoma. Expect a decrease in clouds in
the northwest this afternoon...and with the strong southwest
winds...temperatures will climb to around 70 degrees in these
areas. Clouds will hang tough over the central and south sections.
Increased max temperatures in these areas just a couple of degrees
due to cloud cover. Strong winds will continue and gusts to 40 mph
are expected in some areas. Decreased rain chances central and
east and removed from the northwest...for the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 550 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017
)

AVIATION...
Biggest aviation concerns this period will be low ceilings and
gusty winds. South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
as high as 40 mph will be possible through this afternoon as a
storm system moves through the northern plains. Low stratus deck
this morning will clear out across the north, clear out briefly
across central sections but remain in place through the south.
Some patchy DZ will be possible but chances will not be high
enough to include in the TAFS. Conditions will be MVFR this
morning before becoming VFR this afternoon at some locations.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 401 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Wednesday night.

Not a lot of appreciable changes will be forth coming this morning as
the short term models remain in generally decent agreement, at least
through this period. As such, I will continue to blend the solutions
with a lean towards the slightly more consistent GFS.

Temperatures are roughly 20 to 25 degrees warmer at this time versus
24 hours ago as warm air advection regime is locked in. Temperatures
have been steady or slowly rising tonight as a robust southerly flow
continues. Highs today are expected to climb into the 60s across the
region and wait for it, widespread upper 60s to lower 70s are on tap
for Wednesday.

Generally cloudy conditions will dominate through the period as the
aforementioned southerly flow pulls copious amounts of gulf moisture
into the area. PWATS average anywhere between a half inch to over an
inch through the period.

The big weather story today will be the gusty winds. Low pressure in
the central plains will move off to the northeast keeping a tight
pressure gradient over the area. Winds have already gusted in excess
of 30 mph over parts of northern and northwest Arkansas and will
continue the lake wind and wind advisories that are already in
place. Strongest winds will remain over the higher elevations of
northern Arkansas, and over the Delta Region.

As the low races off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
into the the central part of the state where it will stall and
eventually wash out. A few weak disturbances rippling through the
flow will interact with the front, possibly kicking off a brief
shower or two but precipitation amounts will be minimal at best.

The gradient will decrease for Wednesday but another front will be
dropping down from the north and is expected to be just to the
northwest of the state by the end of the period. More light showers
with minimal amounts of actual precipitation are expected again.

Long Term...Thursday Through Monday

We are still having to contend with varying model solutions
regarding the overall wx pattern, especially durg the latter half of
the long term. In the meantime, an expansive upr rdg off the SE
coast of the U.S. wl keep a SWLY flow aloft in place, bringing with
it plenty of Pacific moisture.

Meanwhile, focus also rmns on an upr lvl storm sys off the West
Coast. Since this feature has yet to reach the land-based upr air
network, the models are still having problems resolving the eventual
strength and track of the upr low later in the PD. Thus, forecast
confidence still rmns low later this weekend into early next week.

Thursday/Friday...

Persistent S/SWLY sfc winds wl cont to usher abundant low lvl
moisture NWD acrs AR. Meanwhile, a slow movg CDFNT is fcst to push
into NWRN AR Thu mrng, and eventually into Cntrl sections of the
state by Thu evening before stalling out. Rain chcs wl persist along
and ahead of the fnt, with light overrunning precip noted behind it.
Low lvl temps are progged to rmn abv freezing behind the fnt, so
have not included any mention of winter wx. The area to watch wl be
acrs the Nrn counties heading into Fri.

Saturday/Sunday...

Another sfc low/upr impulse wl track NEWD toward the area. As this
sys apchs, the quasi-stationary fntl bndry wl begin to sloly lift
back NWD as a warm front. Model data conts to show that the bndry wl
eventually shift NW of the FA Sat ngt/Sun, placing the area back
into the warm sector. The fnt wl be the focus for additional rounds
of rainfall as a series of upr lvl impulses cont to affect the
region. With the sfc fnt now expected to be situated further NW of
AR, the potential for heavy rain/localized flooding wl be lower for
the FA.

Monday...

Based on current data, the aforementioned upr low is fcst to work
into the SWRN states this weekend, eventually lifting NEWD into the
Plains States on Mon. An assocd sfc low/CDFNT is progged to move EWD
acrs most of AR, with a good chcs of convection accompanying it.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Cleburne-Desha-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Marion-
Monroe-Newton-Prairie-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-White-Woodruff.


Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Drew-Faulkner-Garland-
Grant-Hot Spring-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-
Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-
Van Buren-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...51



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