Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 151846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016


VFR conds noted acrs the FA this aftn as mrng low clouds and fog
dissipated. Breezy S/SELY winds wl be noted as well...esp ovr NRN
and WRN AR. Still expect some low clouds/patchy fog late tngt/
early Sun mrng...but not as widespread due to contd lgt winds
overnight. SLY winds wl incrs again on Sun mrng...with speeds of
10 to 15 mph common with higher gusts by mid/late mrng. /44/


SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

Fog product satellite imagery reveals a plethora of low clouds
across Arkansas and points northward. The southern extent of the
cloud back is roughly along the AR/LA border. Surface observations
also show that it`s not just low clouds, but also quite a bit of
fog around the region, with many areas east of the Ozark and
Ouachitas escarpment seeing visibility of 1/2 mile or less. Do
not have this in the forecast as coverage will be very spotty, but
with such a thick surface-based moist layer, occasional drizzle
will certainly be a possibility through daybreak as well.

Getting back to the fog, issued a dense fog advisory for areas
east of roughly the I-30/US-67 corridor, but also for the Arkansas
River Valley west of Little Rock as well. The fog and low clouds
will dissipate later this morning, but may do so late enough to
warrant lowering the expected high temperatures today. Still think
that we will be well above normal, but did lower highs a degree or
two today.

By this evening the shortwave trough that brought rain to the
region yesterday will be located over Alabama. Upper ridging will
begin to build into the state from the southwest, though not a
high amplitude pattern at first due to progressive northern
stream branch stretching from central California through the upper
midwest. Upper ridge will amplify a little on Sunday though as
trough deepens along the Pacific NW coast, setting stage for
warming trend Sunday into early next week. Expect highs from the
mid 70s to low 80s today mostly, with elevated locations being
the coolest and low elevations of southeast Arkansas the warmest.
A similar distribution of temperatures will be seen on Sunday as
well, but values will range from around 80 to the upper 80s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Sunday

Could this be the ridge`s last stand? Personally, I hope so.

At the beginning of the period, the aforementioned troublemaker will
be fairly broad over the southern conus. Southwest southerly flow
will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s and even
(unfortunately) approach near-record levels. This will continue into

However, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. Extended
range models differ to varying degrees, but all are converging on a
bit of a shift in the longwave pattern. What this means is there
will be more of a ridging over the western CONUS and troughing
near/just east of the Rockies. This shift will allow a frontal
boundary to move into the area some time around late Wednesday, with
associated precipitation mainly post-frontal. The front will briefly
stall as it hits near parallel upper flow. However, by Thursday, it
should pick up speed, as a deepening upper trough pushes out of the
southern Rockies.

This is where model solutions start to vary. ECMWF is fairly
progressive, with the front clearing the area during the day
Thursday, and meridional upper flow developing behind it to end the
period. The GFS and CMC develop a fairly potent closed upper low,
which would act to keep precipitation around into late Friday at the
least. At this point, regardless of which solution pans out, it
looks like it will start feeling more like October around here.

As mentioned earlier, maximum temperatures on Monday (October 17),
and Tuesday (October 18) could approach record levels. Some areas
that could come close are listed below.

                    Record High Temperatures
Location           October 17      October 18
Little Rock        89 in 1953      91 in 2005
Jacksonville       87 in 2010      90 in 2006
North Little Rock  86 in 2011      89 in 2005
Russellville       90 in 1953      90 in 2005
Mount Ida          90 in 1963      90 in 1953
Mena               89 in 1953      88 in 1953
Sheridan           90 in 1953      91 in 1953
Conway             90 in 1953      91 in 1953
Stuttgart          90 in 1929      91 in 1910
Calico Rock        89 in 2011      89 in 1924

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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