Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017


Clouds wl cont to stream SEWD into the area today, with primarily
VFR conds expected. Some locations wl see brief periods of MVFR
conds where low clouds and patchy fog form. Light winds this mrng
wl incrs fm the E/SE at 5 to 10 mph as the day progresses. Some
higher gusts wl be noted ovr N AR this aftn. /44/

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 410 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night

Sfc high pres was centered ovr SRN IL early this mrng, with the
assocd rdg axis extending SWWD into NERN AR. The rdg conts to weaken
though, as evident by the roughly 20 to 25 degree sfc dewpoint
spread fm NE to SW acrs AR this mrng. Meanwhile, an area of mid
clouds contd to incrs fm the NW as moisture spills ovr the upr rdg
axis situated to our W.

The aforementioned sfc high wl cont to work slowly to the E today.
This wl allow the front that move thru the FA on Sat, to work back
acrs AR as a warm front later today and tngt. Cannot rule out a few
stray elevated showers/storms later today along and ahead of the
front, mainly over NERN AR. Due to the expected limited coverage, wl
keep POPS below threshold values for now.

Unseasonably warm conds are in store for AR on the first day of
Spring. The combo of incrsg upper heights, SWLY winds and plenty of
sunshine, wl push the mercury into 80s for highs. Several locations
could even see record highs reached or exceeded for the date. Most
of the FA is under a low fire danger, with the exception of the
counties over NW AR. Wl cont to monitor trends on Mon.

On Mon ngt, the upr rdg wl begin to weaken ovr the area. This wl
allow a new CDFNT to apch NERN AR later Mon ngt, with small chances
of convection possible. The front

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

The gist of it...above normal temperatures on Tuesday will fall to
more seasonal levels through the mid-week time frame thanks to a
front moving through the state Tuesday night. Rain chances will
persist across northern Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday before the
front lifts back to the north on Thursday, resulting in a short
lived dry period. The next big system will affect the state Friday
and Saturday and may result in some severe storms. Details are not
entirely clear yet so keeping an eye on the forecast in the coming
days to see how that portion of the forecast changes wouldn`t be a
bad idea.

For those wanting a bit more detail, here goes. Above normal
temperatures on Tuesday will be tempered Wednesday and Thursday
thanks to a surface front moving southward into the state. Rain
chances will persist across the northern parts of the state in the
vicinity of the mid level front on Tuesday and Wednesday. Have
isolated thunder mentioned but suspect it will mostly be convective
showers. Arkansas gets back into the warm sector on Thursday as the
front shifts north of the state. Should see temperatures rise back
into the 70s for much of the state, and possibly into the 80s for a
few places in the south. Models are in decent agreement through
Wednesday, but from there they diverge considerably.

Upper ridging will be in place across the plains on Wednesday, with
a strong southern stream shortwave moving onshore in southern
California, and a northern stream wave in the Pacific Northwest.
Models have had a variety of things to say about how those two
features evolve as they shift east through the Rockies Thursday into
Friday. Over the last few nights models have shown closed upper lows
moving across Oklahoma and into Missouri, open waves over the upper
midwest, and now we have some solutions showing the southern stream
wave closing off into a cutoff low over Oklahoma and diving south of
Arkansas. Additionally, guidance that originally showed a northern
open wave solution have now gone the closed low route, and vice
versa. In other words, confidence in the forecast beyond Thursday is
not very high, and thus it is somewhat difficult to say what the
realistic threat of severe weather will be. That said, trends
support at least some threat of severe storms on Friday evening as
the upper trough/closed low shifts east through the southern plains.
A linear convective mode seems most likely, which would mean more of
a damaging wind and hail threat as opposed to tornadoes. Time will
bring more clarity to key details in the late week time period
though, so it`s best to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming
days to see how the threat of severe storms evolves.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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