Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150857
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
357 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Areas of dense fog are forming early this morning over the
Pennyrile region of western KY, southwest IN and southeast IL.
Believe conditions will only worsen and spread as we approach
sunrise, so will go ahead with a dense fog advisory through 9 AM
CDT for those regions. Could see a repeat tonight. The rest of the
weekend looks high and dry as high pressure builds in the mid
levels of the atmosphere. Will see high temps into the mid and
upper 80s at most locations. It appears the warm and dry weather
will persist right into Monday as the ridging aloft continues.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast starts off
higher than average at the beginning of the week. However, model
inconsistencies depreciate forecast confidence as the week
progresses.

The upper level pattern next week will be characterized by an upper
level trough over the western U.S. with an upper level ridge over
the eastern U.S. extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast
states. The ridge should act to deflect most of the active weather
to the north of the forecast area through Tuesday. The wave pattern
is forecast to amplify by mid to late week thus strengthening the
southwesterly flow pattern across the forecast area.

With more humidity and warmer than normal temperatures, the chance
for an isolated mainly heat-of-the-day thunderstorm is difficult to
rule out beyond Monday. However, a couple of windows present better
opportunities for scattered thunderstorm activity. The first arrives
late Sunday night into Monday as a weak frontal boundary drops south
into the Wabash River Valley in response to approaching upper level
energy northwest of the region. Better chances on Monday appear to
be over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The
second opportunity arrives mid week with the approach of upper level
energy from the Plains. There is quite a bit of model spread with
this second chance, so we generally used a blend of available model
guidance for now.

With the upper level ridge in place and southerly flow in the low
levels, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to persist
through the period. Highs should range through the mid to upper 80s
with lows in the mid to upper 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Clear skies expected overnight, with MVFR fog likely at all sites
by 09z. There may be a period of IFR fog between 09z-12z,
especially at KCGI, KOWB and KEVV. After 13z, VFR conditions will
prevail. Light to calm winds overnight will become south around
5kts after 13z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ076>078-
     082-083-086-087-091.

MO...None.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RST



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