Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232016
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EXCEPT FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS...THERE WAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...COURTESY OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KPOF. THE HRRR
QPF AND DEEP-LAYER RH FORECASTS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHEAST...STAYING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KCGI. WILL
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SE MISSOURI THROUGH 00Z.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER
INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOME WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF SE
MISSOURI LATER ON TONIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY (15 MPH SUSTAINED)...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO
ISSUE. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
HIGH TEMPS AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WIND. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. IN
THAT AREA...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT. POPS WILL TAPER DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER WET...AS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
INDICATING FOR A WHILE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MOISTURE-LADEN
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. A
RATHER STRONG BUT NARROW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS /NAM...NMM...ARW/ IS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS
CORRECT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT OR NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THEY WEAKEN WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY.

ON MONDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A
RELATIVELY COOL AND CLOUDY FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 IN
ALL AREAS ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SURGE
NORTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LADEN WITH MOISTURE. STORM TOTAL
QPF SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST AN INCH AFTER BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE
ACCOUNTED FOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THE WIND FIELDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...BUT
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY


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