Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
104 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Issued at 104 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Breezy, warm, and dry conditions will last another couple of
days. A cold front will arrive on Wednesday, accompanied by an
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

As far as the warmth, it has been well advertised that record
highs are possible today and again Tuesday. There have been no
changes in the model thermal fields to suggest otherwise. 850 mb
temps are still forecast to average in the upper teens, with
little in the way of cloudiness to inhibit mixing to 850 mb. There
will likely be scattered diurnal cumulus clouds, especially on
Tuesday. The mid and high levels will remain dry. Mos guidance
from the various models is in good agreement with superblend highs
in the mid to upper 80s both days.

Surface winds will become rather strong during times of peak
heating both today and Tuesday. The strongest southwest 850 mb
winds will be in southern IL and southeast MO both days, averaging
around 40 knots today. Wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are likely in
that area this afternoon. Gusts elsewhere will be closer to 30
mph. The HWO will contain a mention of the gusty winds today.
Wind fields will decrease a little Tuesday as the front

The cold front will move southeast into southeast MO, southern IL,
and southwest IN late Tuesday night. There is a small chance of
showers and storms along this front by 12z Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the front will stall or move back north a little
ways. This will be in response to a 500 mb shortwave over the
Plains, which may initiate a surface low over Missouri. There is
a wide variety of model solutions at this point. On one extreme,
the 00z ecmwf takes the front back north into the St. Louis area
by 18z Wed. On the other extreme, the 00z nam takes the front to
near the Tennessee border. The forecast is based on a compromise,
which means the front will be over the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers
and storms along and north of the front. Highs will range from the
mid 70s north of the front to the mid 80s south of it. The model
forecast capes have increased from previous runs, suggesting a few
strong storms are possible.

As the 500 mb shortwave approaches the Mississippi Valley Wed
night, it will give the cold front a shove southeast across the
remainder of our region. Guidance is in good agreement that the
front will accelerate Wed night. Most of the precip should be
post-frontal, so pops will rise into the likely category north
and west of the Ohio River. Chance pops will be forecast over west
KY. Thunder chances will start to decrease overnight as the
elevated instability weakens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Models continue to advertise a progressive mid tropospheric trof
moving east across the area Thursday. Surface front will be about
1/2 way through the area 12z Thursday, departing by 18z. The 850mb
front and elevated instability parameters are essentially juxtaposed
with the surface parameters. So replaced inherited stratiform precip
wording with a TSRA east 1/2 of the area, showers elsewhere. The
models have shown this depiction for 3 days now. PoPs will taper off
in the afternoon from west to east. Only a slight chance in the KY
Pennyrile for SHRA Thursday evening, then we are looking at a dry
forecast Friday through Sunday, with NW flow aloft, and high
pressure moving across the area. The forecast is heavily weighted
toward the very consistent EC model of the past 3 days, with minor
GFS weight included as well only from yesterdays 00z model run


Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The main element in the aviation forecsst is the wind, with minimal,
if any cloudiness present. South southwesterly to southwesterly
surface winds will prevail through the TAF period, gusting 25 to 30
knots during the daylight hours and subsiding to 10 to 15 knots at
night. Depending on the location, significant wind shear is likely
at around 2000 feet from late evening to before sunrise, with a
southwesterly direction and a wind speed at the top of the layer of
approximately 40 knots. LLWS will be most likely north of the OH
River and over most of southeastern MO.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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