Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 191950
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
The presence of a lingering H5 trough over the mid and upper Ohio
Valley combined with deeper moisture over the Pennyrile region will
produce plenty of cloud cover in that area through tonight.
Starting Sunday tho, H5 ridging will begin moving in from the
west. This will result in less cloud cover and bring a warming
trend that will last into early next week. Temperatures and
dewpoints will start off the period below normal but with the
ridge building in, these values will moderate back to near normal
by the end of the period...which means afternoon temps near 90
with heat index values 95 to 100.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means were in good agreement for this
forecast package. The trend lately has been toward a drier and
warmer pattern, at least through Wed(Day 5), with an expansive upper
high covering a large part of the wrn CONUS, right up to the
vicinity of the MS River.
The influence of an approaching and amplifying nrn stream mid/upper
trof and sfc front/trof will increase on Wed from the nw, but should
be greatest on Wed night, with PoPs no higher than 40 percent at
this time. Interestingly, the 12Z GEM has begun to show a tendency
to pinch off energy over the PAH forecast area Thu, like the ECMWF
has done over the last couple of days. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF
became more progressive with the shrtwv, like the GFS has been the
whole time. Then, the 12Z ECMWF had the srn end of the shrtwv
phasing with a weakness over the Deep South shown by the
GEM/GFS/ECMWF, possibly resulting in lingering post-frontal PoPs for
the srn third of our region. So, some uncertainty of the smaller
details still remain among the deterministic models with this system.
For this package, we will go with measurable PoPs for the sern third
of the PAH forecast area during the day Thu, then dry as the front
begins to return back newd as a warm front. As the lower trop
moistens up a bit on Sat, the warm front should help to trigger
scattered showers/tstms across the area, mainly during the day.
Expect a brief cooldown for Thu into the middle 80s, with dewpoints
in the 60s followed by a general warming trend through Day 7.
Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A surface low over south central Tennessee lifting northward will
pull a deck of MVFR clouds over the KPAH/KEVV/KOWB this
afternoon/eve. May see occasional LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys late
tonight thru sunrise.