Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230753
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

Front will move through today, with associated convective chances.
However, the models are not generating much qpf overall, only
showing modest surface convergence, and marginal h8/h5 + UVVs.
Therefore coverage will likely be limited. The cold front will
clear the area tonight, followed by high pressure for Monday
through Tuesday night, as a h5 vortex sets up near the Great
Lakes, with h5 high center over the four corners region. The high
will result in return lower humidity and slightly below normal
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

High pressure sliding east from the upper Mississippi valley into
the northeast U.S. will keep conditions dry and pleasant across the
PAH forecast area Wednesday into Friday.  North to northeast flow
through the period will keep temperatures below normal with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees, with readings a degree or two higher each day.

For next weekend, ECMWF is getting a little more progressive with a
surface low developing in the Central Plains pushing precip into the
area on Saturday.  The previous run kept it west of our region, and
the latest GFS keeps us dry, so for now kept the forecast precip
free. The very gradual warming trend will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

Areas of stratus and fog appear likely to form late tonight,
especially where rain moistened the ground in the past 12 hours.
Some patchy ifr cigs have already formed at kcgi before midnight.
Both kcgi/kpah will likely experience ifr cigs and/or vsbys late
tonight and especially around sunrise. Lower dew points and lack of
recent rain at kevv/kowb suggest only mvfr vsbys there.

Widespread cumulus cloudiness will develop Sunday morning and last
through the day. Cigs will start out mvfr in the morning and then
gradually increase during the day. Winds will shift into the west to
northwest in the afternoon as a cold front passes. Clearing appears
likely after sunset as stabilization takes place.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST



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