Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291839
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIURNAL CIG BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES POSSIBLE. AFTER NIGHTFALL...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM WORKS MID BASED CIGS INTO/ACROSS
AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OFFER MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE...OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE NEARING FRONT TO AGAIN INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS/VICINITY THUNDER MENTIONED EARLY AND BECOMING
PREVALANT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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