Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172217

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Issued at 514 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Quasi-zonal flow aloft, and a strong low level pressure gradient
will continue to produce a breezy and very warm forecast for the
next day or so, though winds on Tuesday are expected to be
somewhat less than today`s as a surface cold front approaches from
the north, motivated by a mid level shortwave moving from the
Great Lakes to eastern Canada. Look for more temperature records
to possibly fall through mid week.

There is a slight chance that an isolated shower or tstm may
develop along the northwestern and northern fringes of the PAH
forecast area near the boundary late Tuesday afternoon and night,
with slightly higher PoPs by sunrise Wednesday.

The front may actually retreat to the north temporarily Wednesday
as a substantial longwave trof approaches from the Plains and the
flow aloft swings to a more southwesterly direction. This should
mean pre-frontal "warm sector" weather for especially the southern
half Wednesday and Wednesday evening, with a well-mixed lower trop
and minimal cloudiness. However, the chances of showers/tstms will
not be zero for the northern half. There was some subtle disagreement
between the models as to positioning of the front, but an attempt
was made to downplay PoPs for Wednesday.

Toward midnight, clouds and PoPs will increase rapidly for our
area from north to south as the front, with a developing surface
low pressure area along it, punches through, and mid level heights
fall dramatically. The chance of tstms actually may remain quite
good through midnight, diminishing after as the atmosphere

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is fairly

At 12Z Thursday, a neutrally-tilted short wave trough will be
located over western Missouri, while a surface cold front will be
located across our four state region. Scattered to numerous showers
and some thunderstorms will be focused along and behind the front,
which should exit the area by the end of the day. The 12Z ECMWF and
CMC are faster with the progression of the trough relative to the
GFS, and their consensus solution is preferred at this time.

There should be sufficient elevated instability to support some
thunderstorms, but in general it is not expected to be enough to
support severe storms. Another limiting factor is that the best
winds aloft will lag behind the front. Given the orientation of the
front nearly parallel to the flow aloft, some training potential
exists, so locally heavy rainfall will be a concern.

Will leave some chancy PoPs in the east into Thursday evening, just
in case the slower GFS is correct, but the remainder of the forecast
is quite dry.

After a hot start to the week, clouds, precipitation and northwest
winds will drop temperatures down to near normal levels in the mid
and upper 60s for highs on Thursday afternoon. It will be quite a
rude awakening. Friday will have full sunshine, but it will be quite
blustery with temperatures only reaching the lower 60s. Lows Friday
and Saturday morning should remain in the 40s, so there is no
concern for frost at this time.

Northwest flow over the weekend brings the prospect of clipper
systems attempting to impact the area. The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and
GFS keep any associated precipitation well to our northwest with a
system on Saturday, but prior runs were farther southwest with the
track, so this at least bears watching through the week.

Any potential clipper systems could impact the wind direction over
our region this weekend and into Monday, but the current idea is for
the surface high to shift east by Sunday allowing south winds to
return. High temperatures will climb back above 70 for Sunday and
Monday. If the 12Z ECMWF is correct, we could warm well into the 70s
for Monday.


Issued at 514 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Cloud cover is minimal under high pressure, some high then cirrus
at times and otherwise a few to scattered diurnal cu in the low
VFR range. Significant wind shear is likely at around 2000 feet
later this evening to before sunrise, with a southwesterly
direction and a wind speed at the top of the layer of
approximately 40 knots, so that was included in this package
forecast. Otherwise anticipate stiff south winds to continue with
some gustiness into the 20s kts again tmrw during the daylight


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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