Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211907
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

88D mosaic shows narrow ribbon of showers just to the east of the
area, in vicinity of recently departed frontal system. Models all
migrate surface High pressure from the Ozarks into/across the area
tonight, en route to the Ohio valley tmrw. Nice cooler/drier air
works across the region with the High, with 70s/50s becoming the
norm the next couple days.

The short term period ends with an evolving/developing upper long
wave trof driving a cold front into the forecast picture by
Tuesday night, with its attendant chance of showers/storms,
appearing as early as Tuesday (pm/evening). It will ultimately
bring a reinforcing shot of spring like cool air for the mid week
period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast starts off
higher than average with relatively good model agreement. Confidence
drops to below average by next weekend as unknown mesoscale effects
complicate an already uncertain synoptic scale pattern.

Starting with Wednesday morning, an upper level low is forecast to
be positioned over the Mid Mississippi Valley with the surface low
and associated cold front just east of the region. Energy rotating
around the upper low will interact with the instability beneath the
colder air aloft to result in a continued chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms on Wednesday--particularly in the afternoon.

While a drying trend is expected from west to east Wednesday night,
a small chance of showers may even linger into Thursday over far
eastern portions of the area depending on how quickly the low
departs. A return to mainly dry weather is anticipated Thursday into
Friday as an upper level ridge builds east from the Plains.

However, the dry pattern will likely be short lived as southwesterly
flow develops on the west side of the ridge next weekend. Impulses
of energy in the southwest flow will act on an increasingly humid
air mass with a frontal boundary nearby to result in the potential
for periodic thunderstorm complexes over the weekend. At this time,
rather poor synoptic scale model agreement and the likely impact of
unknown mesoscale interactions keeps confidence rather low beyond
Friday. Even with the chance of thunderstorms, we anticipate a fair
amount of dry time in between the raindrops.

After what will likely be the coolest day of the week on Wednesday
with highs in the mid to upper 60s, a warming trend is expected
through the remainder of the week. In fact, highs Friday through
Sunday are forecast in the lower 80s. Lows should moderate from
around 50 Wednesday night into the 60s by the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

GOES-R Imagery reveals ribbon of cu developing in heat of day,
with bases 3500-4500 FT AGL. After sunset, should see clear
sky/diminishing winds as surface high pressure migrates overhead,
enroute from Missouri Ozarks to Ohio river valley. Tmrw we`ll see
winds start to turn around on back side of high, and time/height
cross sections show skies remain moclear from influence of high
pressure.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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