Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 102331
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will
move to the U.S. East Coast by Saturday evening. Aloft,
considerable upper level moisture streaming east from the Rockies
will result in occasional high clouds through Saturday.

Focus will then turn to a s/wv wave forecast to move from the
Plains Saturday night east across the Mississippi Valley region
Sunday. Moisture increases ahead of the system and a weak frontal
boundary Saturday night. Will continue with low chance PoPs for
light showers across the west 1/2 of the area after midnight,
with chance PoPs shifting east Sunday morning, ending across our
far east counties Sunday afternoon. A light shower, light QPF
event with many areas at or below 1/10th of an inch. Dry weather
returns Sunday night.

Given the overall decent model agreement, used a consensus.
Temperatures are a blend of MOS and weighted/base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

High pressure over our region Monday will slide to our east by
Tuesday.  This will result in dry conditions, and winds shifting to
the south will lead to a bit of a warm up into mid week.

Models show a cold front approaching the middle Mississippi valley
Tuesday night. Showers will be possible in our northwest and western
counties Tuesday evening, with chances increasing and spreading
southeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The ECMWF moves the
front south of the PAH forecast area by Wednesday evening and keeps
us dry Wednesday night.  GFS does not take the front as far south,
and keeps chances of showers across our southern counties Wednesday
night.  For now went with some small chances across our south. ECMWF
keeps the front south of the area through Thursday and lifts it
north Thursday night, while the GFS brings the front back north on
Thursday.  Due to uncertainty in the timing, just went with small
chances of showers on Thursday, with good chances Thursday night
when the models both indicate precipitation, though for different
reasons.  Models show low pressure moving eastward from the Plains
late in the week, so despite timing differences, it looks like a wet
end to the week.  Fortunately temperatures remain mild with
readings slightly above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

The TAFs are VFR. There will be lots of cirrus streaming eastward
across the region through the period. Winds well under 10kts will
veer from east northeast tonight to east southeast Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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