Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191945
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WET
WEDNESDAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS AS A WEAKENING SFC LOW SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. WITH
THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME...THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SW IL TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY IN SE MO AND SRN IL...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ONE HEADS EAST INTO THE PENNYRILE OF WESTERN
KY. THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...MAINLY ACROSS SE MO AND WRN KY...THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC
LOW PATH.

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH IS ORIGINATING OVER THE CHILLY NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT BEST.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FRIDAY BEING DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO NORMALS. SATURDAY THE GFS IS SLOW TO
BRING IN THE POPS AS IT KEEPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRONOUNCED VS. THE
ECMWF THAT STARTS TO BREAK IT DOWN. PLAN TO APPROACH POPS SATURDAY
VERY CONSERVATIVE. BY SUNDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AREA PLACES
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM SECTORED OF COURSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS AS WE EXIT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PERIODS AFTER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER WILL NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.

AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THEN
SLOWLY REACHING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MOS DIFFERS BY ABOUT 8
DEGREES BY DAY 7 WITH THE GFS MUCH WARMER AND THE ECMWF NEAR
NORMAL. SO NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. MAIN DELINEATION FOR AVIATION FORECAST WAS FOR
THE INTRODUCTION OF CIRRUS AND MEAN WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH
TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...SMITH



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